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Bitcoin Steadies at $118K as Analysts Flag Deeper Pullback Risks and Altcoin Rotation

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Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $118,348 on Sunday, up 0.39% in 24 hours, as two analysts outlined paths that could test traders’ nerves: a dip toward $108K–$112K or a drawn-out range with room for altcoins.

Lark Davis argues that if bitcoin continues to slide, the most likely landing zone is $108,000–$112,000. That range served as a ceiling earlier this year when bitcoin’s rally stalled, and in market psychology, levels that once blocked price often flip into support when revisited.

He emphasizes that this area also aligns with two classic pullback checkpoints known as the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. These measures, drawn from the size of bitcoin’s last rally, are widely watched because they often mark where profit-taking slows and new buying emerges. While Fibonacci ratios sound mathematical, in practice they work as self-fulfilling markers since many traders plan entries there.

Davis also points to the 20-week exponential moving average, a trend line that updates quickly with recent price action. When this line is rising into the same $108K–$112K area, it strengthens the case for support, because technical traders see both history and momentum meeting in one zone.

When several signals cluster like this — resistance turned support, Fibonacci checkpoints and a rising average —traders call it “confluence,” and confluence zones often act like magnets for price tests.

In other words, Davis isn’t predicting collapse but a healthy reset. His framework suggests that if bitcoin dips, buyers could step in around that band and fuel the next leg higher.

Michaël van de Poppe takes a different angle, noting that bitcoin was just rejected at a key resistance level near its recent highs. A rejection means sellers absorbed demand as the price tried to break out, a common signal that momentum needs to cool off before the next push. He expects the market to consolidate rather than trend, with bitcoin moving sideways between a floor and a ceiling while leverage resets.

The TradingView chart he shared underscores this. It showed bitcoin making repeated attempts at the top of its range but failing to hold above resistance. The candles formed wicks —price spikes that quickly faded — suggesting selling pressure was active near the highs. Underneath, the chart marked a zone of potential support, where Van de Poppe believes bitcoin could find a base before another breakout attempt.

TradingView chart

For van de Poppe, the message is not about deep retracement but time. A sideways range would give the market breathing room, clear out overextended positions, and set the stage for the next move up. It would also open the door to rotation into altcoins, which often outperform when bitcoin stops trending.

That rotation, he suggests, could already be brewing. Once bitcoin stabilizes, traders typically seek higher returns in large altcoins like ether before spreading to smaller tokens. Altcoin rallies rarely start while bitcoin is in freefall, but they often gain momentum when BTC ranges and volatility cools.

In plain terms, the two analysts are describing different but compatible playbooks. Davis favors a deeper pullback into a support cluster that could refresh the uptrend, while van de Poppe sees a range-bound pause with potential for altcoins to shine.

For everyday readers, the checklist is simple: watch whether bitcoin trades sideways or dips to the $108K–$112K zone. In either case, analysts agree the broader bull market framework remains intact, but the path forward could look very different depending on how support and resistance play out in the weeks ahead.

Technical analysis highlights

  • According to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model, Bitcoin showed bullish strength in the 24-hour window from Aug. 16, 15:00 UTC to Aug. 17, 14:00 UTC, rising from $117,847.02 to $118,485.32, a 1% gain.
  • Support formed near $117,261.72 early on Aug. 17, followed by a break above $118,000 with higher-than-average volume of 2,848.15 BTC during rallies at 04:00, 08:00, 09:00, and 13:00 UTC.
  • In the final hour from Aug. 17, 13:17–14:16 UTC, bitcoin climbed from $118,165.31 to $118,397.67, including a sharp move at 13:51–13:52 UTC when price spiked from $118,417.23 to $118,604.10 on 679.81 BTC of volume.
  • The move set short-term resistance around $118,600 before consolidating near $118,400, leaving potential for further upside after cooling.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

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Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.

According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.

That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.

That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.

At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.

With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.

MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.

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HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

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HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.

The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.

The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.

Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
  • HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
  • Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
  • Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
  • The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
  • Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
  • High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
  • Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

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The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.

Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
  • The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
  • These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
  • Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
  • A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
  • The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
  • The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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