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Bitcoin Soars to Record High Above $106K, Then Retreats as Hawkish Fed Rate Cut Looms
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Bitcoin (BTC) surged to over $106,000 in early Asian hours, setting new all-time highs before quickly retreating to $104,500 amid concerns about the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut.
The U.S. central bank is expected to reduce the benchmark borrowing cost by 25 basis points to the 4.25% to 4.5% range, marking a total easing of 100 basis points since September. However, there are concerns that the accompanying Fed commentary will seek to temper expectations for further easing, potentially diminishing the bullish impact of the rate cut.
The Fed will announce its rate decision, the dot plot, comprising interest rate projections, and economic forecasts on Dec. 18 at 14:00 ET. A press conference by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell will occur a half hour later.
The previous dot plot released on Sept. 18 showed 2.5 points of rate cuts by the end of 2026, pushing the borrowing cost below 3%. Some observers believe the Fed will trim these forecasts on Wednesday.
«We suggest the risk of a ‘hawkish’ cut with less rate hikes next year than anticipated in September in the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), recognition that economy is stronger than it had expected previously, and inflation is on a bumpy path that allows the Fed to be patient,» Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said in Sunday’s edition of the newsletter.
If the projections reflect slower or fewer rate cuts, Treasury yields and the dollar will likely extend their recent run higher, potentially making it harder for risk assets, including BTC, to stay as strongly bid as they have been of late.
That said, seasonality is quite bullish for BTC, and with President-elect Trump sending positive regulatory vibes to crypto, a potential hawkish Fed may not have a long-lasting impact on the cryptocurrency.
Besides, the Fed rate cuts will still remain on the table alongside an expected easing from China, keeping BTC’s bull case intact.
«Yet, whilst lots of ink will be spilled on the pace of cuts going forward, little detracts from the supportive macro dynamic of a global central bank rate cutting cycle and rising global liquidity, set to be propelled by China,» founders of the newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said.
Later this week, markets will get the latest core PCE reading, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will reveal whether the recent upticks in consumer price inflation are a fluke or hints of a genuine inflation rebound.
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Ether on the Verge of ‘Death Cross’ Pattern; SOL, DOGE, BNB Below 200-Day Average
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USDe Issuer Ethena Labs Integrates Chaos Labs’ Edge Proof of Reserves Oracles to Strengthen Risk Management
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Ethena Labs has integrated Chaos Labs’ data authenticity technology, Edge Proof oracles, to strengthen the risk management framework for its synthetic dollar token USDe.
Edge oracles will independently verify the total dollar value of the USDe’s reserves and the reserve coverage of USDe’s supply and confirm that reserves are governance-approved and delta-neutral. Chaos Labs shared the announcement exclusively with CoinDesk.
USDe, a synthetic stablecoin, maintains a soft peg with the U.S. dollar through an automated delta-hedging strategy that shorts bitcoin and ether perpetual futures to offset changes in the prices of these cryptocurrencies.
The synthetic stablecoin experienced volatility over the weekend, falling to 0.982 against tether and 0.988 against USDC, per Kaiko, amid fears that the protocol has multi-million dollar exposure to Bybit’s ether (ETH) derivatives market. The exchange was hacked late Friday, with a malicious entity draining over $1 billion in ether.
The so-called de-peg, however, was short-lived as Ethena assured investors that all assets backing USDe were held off-exchange and its reserve fund was more than enough to compensate for any losses from the Bybit exploit.
The integration with Chaos Labs adds another layer of credibility to USDe’s reserves, ensuring they stay secure and transparent.
The Edge Proof of Reserves (PoR) oracles will constantly monitor the reserve levels of tokens and check the collateral backing them. This is done by smoothly integrating off-chain data from custodians and centralized exchanges into the on-chain environment, ensuring scalable and robust support for institutional-grade applications.
The integration also provides automated alerts to notify users of any data anomalies or if reserve levels fall below the required thresholds. Verified data is publicly displayed on Ethena’s transparency page and attestor interfaces, keeping stakeholders informed.
«This integration ensures continuous, independent verification of reserves, fostering greater transparency and security for all users. By leveraging real-time, tamper-resistant data, Ethena reinforces its commitment to a robust and reliable synthetic dollar,» the announcement said.
Chaos Labs’ Edge oracle leverages zero-knowledge proofs to ensure security and privacy while providing real-time and transparent data verification, including for reserves held off-chain or across different blockchains.
These oracles have secured over $70 billion in volume, delivering risk management to decentralized finance (DeFi) giants like AAVE, Jupiter, GMX, and Tether.
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Binance Open Bitcoin Futures Bets Jump By Over $1B as BTC Chalks Out Bearish Candlestick Pattern: Godbole
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Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $92,000 during the overnight trade, revisiting levels that have proven resilient multiple times since December. However, the latest move comes with a notable uptick in perpetual futures open interest and price action that indicates seller dominance.
The number of open futures bets or open interest in the BTC/USDT pair trading on Binance rose by roughly 12,000 BTC (worth over $1 billion) as BTC’s price fell from $96,000 to under $92,000, according to data tracked by Coinglass.
An uptick in open interest alongside a price decline is said to represent an influx of bearish short positions. In other words, traders likely opened fresh shorts as the price dropped, perhaps in anticipation of an extended sell-off.
The cumulative volume delta (CVD) across both futures and spot markets on the exchange was already negative and has deepened further with the price drop, indicating that selling pressure has outpaced buying activity.
The CVD measures the net capital flows into the market, where positive and rising figures indicate buyer dominance, while negative values reflect increased selling pressure.
BTC chalks out bearish marubozu candle
Bitcoin dropped 4.86% on Monday with sellers dominating the price action throughout the day.
That’s reflected in the shape of Monday’s candlestick, which features negligible upper and lower shadows and a prominent red body. In other words, opening and closing prices are almost the same, a sign buyers had little say in the price action.
Technical analysts categorize this as a bearish marubozu pattern. The appearance of the bearish candlestick while prices hover below key 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) may embolden sellers, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Support (S) is seen near $89,200, the Jan. 13 low, followed by the 200-day SMA at $81,661. On the flip side, the Feb. 21 high of around $99,520 is the level to beat (R).
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