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Bitcoin Slumps Below $94K, but One Analyst Says $500K Forecast Remains in Play

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The desultory price action in crypto continued on Tuesday, helping to drag bitcoin (BTC) closer to its lowest level in several months.

In early afternoon trading hours, bitcoin was trading at $93,600, lower by 2% over the past 24 hours and off 10% over the past week.

The broader crypto market as defined by the CoinDesk 20 Index was down 4% over the past 24 hours. Hitting that index was a 16% decline in solana (SOL), which is feeling the pain as the memecoin market may finally have reached peak grift and/or outright criminality over the weekend with the rugpull involving Argentine President Javier Millei. Solana is now down 35% over the past month and has given back all of its post-Trump election gains.

$500K still in play

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has previously said he expects bitcoin to eclipse $500,000 by the time Donald Trump leaves office.

Looking past the lame short-term price action, Kendrick — in a morning note on Tuesday — said the recent slate of 13F filings regarding institutional ownership of spot bitcoin ETFs gave him hope.

The type of buyer has evolved from retail to hedge funds and now to banks and sovereigns, said Kendrick, noting a boosted ETF stake from the likes of Goldman Sachs and the initial purchase of a bitcoin ETF by Abu Dhabi.

Kendrick: «Going forward, we would expect more very long-term-long-only money to buy bitcoin and would expect the Abu Dhabi position to be the start of much greater participation by sovereigns.»

Solana slump

Native tokens of protocols tied to the Solana trading environment weren’t spared either. Tokens of decentralized exchanges Raydium (RAY), Jupiter (JUP) posted double-digit losses today, while liquid staking service Jito (JTO) slid 7% lower, with all of them down over 30% from their Friday highs.

The Solana ecosystem, which is benefitted generously as a hub for memecoin trading and launching tokens, is grappling with the fallout from LIBRA, the latest scandalous pump-and-dump token launch that put several key figures in the Solana space and even Argentina’s President Javier Milei in the hot seat.

LIBRA was released on Friday and zoomed to $4 billion market capitalization after Milei’s X post saying the project would support small and mid-sized businesses in the country. The token then lost nearly all its market value as insiders cashed in $100 million and Milei backpedalled his support. Milei now faces fraud charges and a possible impeachment, and Solana-based DEX Meteora co-founder Ben Chow resigned after being implicated in the token launch.

«This is the latest sordid episode emanating from Solana’s memecoin complex,» Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, said in a Tuesday note. The report pointed out that sentiment towards memecoins began to erode since the TRUMP token

If sentiment weren’t at rock bottom, the upcoming SOL unlock event increasing the token’s circulating supply injects an additional dose of uncertainty in the markets. Estimates vary on the exact amount of tokens to be released into circulation, but one hedge fund analyst forecasted that some 15.725 million SOL, worth roughly $2.5 billion at current prices, will be unlocked over the next three months, with much of the tokens coming from the FTX estate holdings.

«If an unlock of this scale occurs, it could increase the circulating supply of $SOL and potentially impact market dynamics,» Tokenomist analysts said in an X post. «Historical examples of large token unlocks have often led to heightened price volatility. However, it’s essential to note that the precise size of the unlock and the final date are still not publicly disclosed by any official entity.»

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Bybit CEO Labels Pi Network a Scam, Citing Official Police Warning

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Bybit CEO Ben Zhou said Thursday that his exchange will not list the Pi Network’s PI token, which was controversially released on Thursday, citing a Chinese police warning from 2023 that alleged the project was a scam targeting elderly people, leaking their personal information and leading to the loss of their pensions.

«There are multiple other reports out there questioning the project legitimacy,» Zhou posted on X. «Yes, I still think you are a scam, and no, Bybit will not list scam.»

The Pi Network didn’t respond to CoinDesk’s request for comments.

The token went live alongside the project’s mainnet release on Thursday. Users who «mined» tokens by clicking their smartphone screens once a day were finally able to transfer and sell tokens.

Zhou, however, found himself in the middle of a separate issue on Friday, with his exchange Bybit, which was hacked by North Korea’s Lazarus Group for $1.5 billion.

The PI token debuted on OKX at $0.67, rose as high as $2 and then slumped 65% and is currently around $0.69.

One issue that raised concerns was a marketing tactic that rewarded users who recruited other users. Each time a user persuaded someone else to sign up using their code, the first person’s «mining» rewards were increased. The idea had some drawing comparisons to the 2017 Ponzi scheme, Bitconnect.

«Pi Network is the biggest ponzi [scheme],» X user CryptoBeast alleged, posting to their 656K followers.

The project also offers users the option of locking their tokens for as long as three years. In return, they are promised increased rewards. The same technique was at the heart of the Hex project, whose founder, Richard Schueler, known online as Richard Heart, is a fugitive sought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for, among other things, defrauding his investors.

The token has a market cap of $4.18 billion based on a circulating supply of $6.33 billion. However, its inflationary nature means the maximum supply is 100 billion, giving a fully diluted value (FDV) at a staggering $67 billion, assuming it holds the current price. At launch, FDV rose as high as $200 billion, almost double that of Solana.

Some exchanges have been undeterred by the concerns raised. OKX, Bitget and Gate have racked up a total of $620 million in trading volume for PI trading pairs between them, according to CoinMarketCap.

Read more: Pi Network’s Token Debuts at $195B Value Despite Minimal Liquidity

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North Korean Hackers Were Behind Crypto’s Largest ‘Theft of All Time’

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Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence said North Korea’s Lazarus Group was behind Bybit’s $1.46 billion hack.

In an earlier post on social media platform X, Arkham offered a bounty of 50,000 ARKM tokens for anyone who could identify the attackers for Friday’s hack. Later, the platform said onchain sleuth ZachXBT submitted «definitive proof» that the attackers were the North Korean hacker group.

«His submission included a detailed analysis of test transactions and connected wallets used ahead of the exploit, as well as multiple forensics graphs and timing analyses,» the post said.

Read more: Bybit Loses $1.5B in Hack but Can Cover Loss, CEO Confirms

The hack that rocked the crypto market and saw most prices tumbling was called the «largest crypto theft of all time, by some margin,» by Elliptic’s Tom Robinson, co-founder and chief scientist. «The next largest crypto theft would be the $611 million stolen from Poly Network in 2021. In fact it may even be the largest single theft of all time.»

Blockchain data provider Nansen told CoinDesk that the attackers first withdrew nearly $1.5 billion worth of funds from the exchange into a main wallet and then spread the funds across several others.

«Initially, the stolen funds were transferred to a primary wallet, which then distributed them across more than 40 wallets,» Nansen said. «The attackers converted all stETH, cmETH, and mETH to ETH before systematically transferring ETH in $27 million increments to over 10 additional wallets,» Nansen said.

The attack appeared to have been caused by something called «Blind Signing,» where a smart contract transaction is approved without the comprehensive knowledge of its contents.

«This attack vector is quickly becoming the favorite form of cyber attack used by advanced threat actors, including North Korea,» said blockchain security firm Blockaid’s CEO Ido Ben Natan. «It’s the same type of attack that was used in the Radiant Capital breach and the WazirX incident.»

«The problem is that even with the best key management solutions, today most of the signing process is delegated to software interfaces that interact with dApps. This creates a critical vulnerability — it opens the door for malicious manipulation of the signing process, which is exactly what happened in this attack,» he said.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou wrote earlier on X that a hacker «took control of the specific ETH cold wallet and transferred all the ETH in the cold wallet to this unidentified address.» He also confirmed that the exchange «is solvent even if this hack loss is not recovered.»

Oliver Knight contributed to the reporting of this story
Read more: Bitcoin, Ether Slump as Crypto Prices Dip on Report of Massive $1.5B Bybit Hack

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Plunging U.S. Stocks Help Add to Crypto’s Bad Day

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Only a handful of hours ago crypto markets were buoyed as the Securities and Exchange Commission signaled its intent its dismiss a lawsuit against Coinbase (COIN).

The welcome regulatory news sparked 5% gains for COIN and the likes of increasingly important crypto trading platform Robinhood (HOOD), and sent bitcoin (BTC) breaking out of its recent tight trading range to within sight of the $100,000 level.

The first bomb to break the good vibes came late in the U.S. morning when Bybit was stung by about a $1.5 billion hack — the largest such exploit ever in crypto. That news sent bitcoin and ether (ETH) sliding roughly 2% in a manner of minutes.

Prices quickly seemed to stabilize and — at least in the case for bitcoin — bounce a bit.

Et tu stocks?

Any sort of bounce, however, was quickly snuffed out as modest losses for U.S. stocks began to accelerate in afternoon trading.

Among the excuses for the quick retreat was a poor reading from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which unexpectedly slipped to 64.7 versus forecasts for 67.8. The same survey’s inflation expectations rose to 3.5% against an expected 3.3%.

An outlier, but perhaps also a reason for selling, was a new coronavirus scare out of China. Discovered by researchers at the Wuhan Institute, HKU5-CoV-2 is «strikingly similar» to the virus that caused the 2020 pandemic, according to the Daily Mail.

Shortly before the close of trading on Friday, the Nasdaq is lower by 2.2% and the S&P 500 by 1.7%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen nine basis points to 4.42%.

As for crypto, bitcoin has more than erased its gains of the past couple of days, trading back to $95,000 and lower by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) has pulled back to $2,650, also lower by about 4%. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 4.4%.

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