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Bitcoin Risks Losing the $90K- $110K Range as These 3 Development Could Put the Brakes on the Next Bull Breakout

Since early 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) has chalked out a classic stairstep bull run, characterized by incremental price increases followed by periods of consolidation that set the stage for the next move higher.
The cryptocurrency’s ongoing price consolidation between $90,000 and $100,000 is the third of the broader bull run from $20,000. The consensus is that it will end in a bull breakout, just as those in mid-2024 and 2023 did.
However, the following three developments, suggest otherwise.
Tightening USD liquidity
If there’s one thing that any asset class, not just crypto, typically dislikes, it’s the tightening of fiat liquidity, particularly the global reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar (USD). To the dismay of BTC bulls, the dollar liquidity is tightening due to several factors, as Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, noted on X.
Notably, the USD cash balance held in the Treasury General Account (TGA), the U.S. government’s checking account at the Fed, has increased from $623 billion to $800 billion in four weeks, according to data source MacroMicro.
After the U.S. hit its self-imposed debt limit of $36 trillion last month, markets hoped that the Treasury would run down the TGA balance as part of extraordinary measures to keep the government functioning, inadvertently enhancing liquidity in the economy and markets. That’s what the Treasury did during the previous debt ceiling issue of early 2023, spurring increased risk-taking in equity and crypto markets.
«We’re looking at a scenario where key liquidity sources are drying up or being more tightly controlled. This could lead to a slowdown in economic activity, higher borrowing costs, and potentially a more challenging environment for risk assets, including crypto,» Anddy Lian, thought leader and intergovernmental blockchain expert, said on X.
Trump administration to ‘evaluate’ strategic BTC reserve
Since President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, he has been actively following through on various campaign promises related to tariffs, illegal migrants and international affairs.
But, there is one notable exception: the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve. It was a significant catalyst behind BTC’s surge from $70,000 to over $100,000.
The Trump administration seems to be more cautious, opting to «evaluate» the feasibility of creating such a reserve. It’s a disappointing shift for crypto investors anticipating swift action on this initiative, similar to Trump’s quick responses on other issues.
«Wait, Trump said he would do a $BTC Reserve, not promise to ‘evaluate it.’ Evaluate/Study is what Washington does when they don’t want to do something,» Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, LLC, said.
BTC fell from over $100,000 to $96,000 during the overnight trade after Trump’s crypto Czar told CNBC that a top agenda item for his new task force is evaluating the feasibility of a bitcoin reserve.
Reappearance of a 2021 topping pattern
Finally, those looking at technical charts to gauge the next move might want to pull up the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) on their screens.
That’s because the oscillator has recently diverged bearishly in a move that marked the 2021 top. A bearish RSI divergence contradicts the higher high in prices, signaling a slowdown in the bullish momentum.
The RSI has produced a lower high relative to its December high, diverging bearishly from the continued price uptrend. That’s similar to the 2021 pattern.
The negative setup would be invalidated should the RSI cross above the falling trendline, representing the divergence, indicating a renewed bullish momentum.
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Robinhood, Kraken-Backed Global Dollar (USDG) Comes to Europe

Global Dollar (USDG), a stablecoin issued by regulated fintech Paxos, and backed by a consortium of heavy hitters that includes Robinhood, Kraken and Mastercard, is being made available to consumers across the European Union, according to a press release on Tuesday.
USDG is regulated by Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority (FIN-FSA), and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Paxos said in a statement.
Demand for U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins is growing in Europe where Circle’s USDC token is the largest MiCA-regulated choice. USDG will make a significant impact as an alternative regulated option, Paxos said.
“USDG is a fully regulated global USD-stablecoin that is compliant with MiCA and now available in the EU, a testament to our commitment to offering global digital assets that are supervised by prudential regulators and also meet the highest standards of consumer protection,” said Walter Hessert, head of strategy at Paxos.
Fulfilling requirements under the EU’s MiCA regulation necessitates that Paxos Issuance Europe, which is regulated by FIN-FSA, holds a portion of USDG reserve assets with European banking partners, Paxos said.
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XRP, TRX, DOGE Lead Majors With Positive Funding Rates as Bitcoin’s Traditionally Weak Quarter Begins

A key metric called perpetual funding rates is signaling bullishness for top altcoins as bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the traditionally weak third quarter quarter with flat price action.
Funding rates, charged by exchanges every eight hours, refer to the cost of holding bullish long or bearish short positions in the perpetual (perps) futures (with no expiry).
A positive funding rate indicates that perps are trading at a premium to the spot price, necessitating a payment from longs to shorts to maintain bullish bets. Therefore, positive rates are interpreted as representing bullish sentiment, while negative rates suggest otherwise.
As of writing, perps tied to payments-focused token XRP (XRP), the world’s fourth-largest digital asset by market value, had an annualized funding rate of nearly 11%, the highest among the top 10 tokens, according to data source Velo. Funding rates for Tron’s TRX (TRX) and dogecoin (DOGE) were 10% and 8.4%, respectively, while rates for market leaders bitcoin and ether were marginally positive.
In other words, the XRP market demonstrated the strongest demand for leveraged bullish exposure among other major cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ether (ETH). That’s consistent with the spike in bullish sentiment for XRP last week, despite the settlement between Ripple and the SEC stalling, as noted by Santiment.
Privacy-focused monero (XMR) stood among tokens beyond the top 10 list with a funding rate of over 23%, while Stellar’s XLM token signaled a strong bias for bearish bets with a funding rate of 24%.
Seasonally weak quarter
Historically, the third quarter has been a weak period for bitcoin, with data indicating an average gain of 5.57% since 2013, according to Coinglass. That’s a far cry compared to the fourth quarter’s 85% average gain.
BTC’s spot price remained flat at around $107,000 at press time, offering no clear direction bias. Valuations have been stuck largely between $100,000 and $110,000 for nearly 50 days, with selling by long-term holder wallets counteracting persistent inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Some analysts, however, expect a significant move to occur soon, with all eyes on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday and the release of nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
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Asia Morning Briefing: Are Distributed Compute Tokens Undervalued vs. CoreWeave (CRWV)?

Tech investors love to pay for potential. GameFi tokens, with sky-high valuations divorced from current user numbers or revenues, embody this optimism perfectly — as CoinDesk investigated in 2022, Decentraland’s then billion-dollar market cap didn’t quite match the number of active players on the platform.
But, surprisingly, distributed compute tokens don’t seem to enjoy the same speculative premium even when compared to their Traditional Finance traded peers like CoreWeave (CRWV).
CoinMarketCap says the category of tokens for decentralized networks that provide GPU power for AI and other compute workloads, which includes well-known tokens like BitTensor, Aethir, and Render, is worth $12 billion.
At the same time, market data from research group MarketsandMarkets puts the value of the GPU as a service industry at around $8 billion this year, growing to $26 billion in 2030.
In contrast, CRWV closed Monday in New York at $163, putting its market cap at $79.2 billion. The company’s recent earnings forecast up to $5.1 billion in 2025 revenue, suggesting it trades at more than 15 times forward sales.
That kind of multiple might be justified in a high-growth environment, but CoreWeave also posted a $314.6 million net loss in the first quarter, driven in part by stock-based compensation and continued infrastructure buildout.
Despite this, investors continue to reward CoreWeave for its dominant position in centralized AI infrastructure with its stock up 300% year-to-date. The company is tightly integrated with Nvidia and has high visibility through contracts with OpenAI and other enterprise clients.
Meanwhile, decentralized compute networks are delivering similar services— AI inference, rendering, and compute power — without needing to raise billions in debt or equity as they act as a broker connecting existing GPUs to users, saving the capital expenditure of buying their own server farms.
These are not theoretical networks. They are functional systems already processing real workloads, and the brokerage model works for customers.
Yet their collective market value remains a fraction of CoreWeave’s. Certainly, they don’t have the same level of workload running through their networks, but the gap is striking. While the market treats GameFi with irrational exuberance, distributed compute tokens may be suffering from the opposite problem.
Despite addressing the same market need as CoreWeave, and in some ways offering a more capital-efficient and globally scalable model without the eye-watering CapEx, they remain modestly valued.
Justin Sun-Backed SRM Entertainment Announces $100 Million TRX Staking Move
SRM Entertainment (Nasdaq: SRM), soon to rebrand as TRON Inc., has staked its entire treasury of 365 million TRX tokens through JustLend, a move that could yield an annual return of up to 10%, according to a release.
The move comes on the heels of a $100 million investment round closed earlier this month to fund what the company calls a “TRON treasury strategy,” essentially, a public market vehicle modeled on bitcoin-holding firms like MicroStrategy, but for TRX.
That structure provides equity investors with indirect exposure to a network that plays a dominant role in USDT stablecoin settlement, particularly in the Global South, where TRON-based Tether serves as a dollar lifeline – arguably a ‘Visa IPO‘ moment for the region’s economy.
Sogni AI Debuts Mainnet, SOGNI Token to List on Kraken, MEXC, Gate.io
Sogni AI, a decentralized platform for generative AI workflows, has launched its mainnet and will list its native token, SOGNI, on Kraken, MEXC, and Gate.io.
SOGNI is the utility token of the Sogni Supernet. It is used for compute payments, staking, governance, and access to advanced application features.
The mainnet launch includes deployments on Base, an Ethereum Layer-2 developed by Coinbase, and Etherlink, a Tezos-based EVM-compatible Layer-2 using Smart Rollups. In a release, the platform said this chain-agnostic approach is designed to balance scalability and accessibility.
The project’s stated goal is to create an open and economically sustainable environment for creative AI applications, combining Web3 infrastructure with user tools that resemble Web2 services in usability.
The platform also uses a non-transferable credit system called Spark Points, which are fixed-value rendering credits that can be purchased or earned within the Sogni ecosystem.
Users interact with the network through three core applications: Sogni Web, Sogni Pocket, and Sogni Studio. Creators submit generative AI jobs, while node operators, or “Workers,” provide GPU resources and are compensated in SOGNI tokens.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $107,200, holding a strong support zone after a 14,695 BTC volume spike near $107K, with traders eyeing a potential breakout toward $115,000.
- ETH: Ethereum rebounded sharply from a 3.4% intraday drop, currently trading at $2,480, forming a V-shaped recovery off $2,438 support, as institutional inflows continue despite broader market uncertainty.
- Gold: Gold is trading at $3,310.95, rebounding from a one-month low as a weaker dollar and Fed pressure offset risk-on sentiment.
- Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors weighed Wall Street’s record highs against looming uncertainty from Trump’s expiring 90-day tariff reprieve, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.58%
- S&P 500: Stocks climbed Monday as the S&P 500 rose 0.52% to a record close of 6,204.95, capping a strong month.
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