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Bitcoin Options Worth $9B Expire Friday, Traders May be Thankful for the Post-Thanksgiving Volatility

The crypto market should see a pick up in volatility at the end of this week, as the monthly (BTC) and ether (ETH) options contracts are set to expire this Friday. This comes a day after the U.S. bank holiday Thanksgiving, giving traders an opportunity to be thankful for a potential increase in volatility.
BTC and ETH options contracts worth $9.4 billion and $1.3 billion will expire on the trading exchange Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Nov. 29. An option allows the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset as a specific price within a certain time period.
According to Deribit data, breaking down the $9.4 billion in notional value in bitcoin that is set to expire on Friday. Over $4.2 billion (45%) of the total notional value is «in-the-money» (ITM). Out of this $4.2 billion, almost 80% of them are calls that are ITM. A call that is ITM is a strike price that is below the current market price, while the opposite can be said for ITM puts that are strikes above the spot price.
As a large amount of call options are ITM this could see a lot of volatility as we get closer to the options expiry, as investors look to close their bets and profit substantially. The volatility was seen last month on Oct. 25, which was the last Friday of the month, which saw a 3% decrease in bitcoin’s as over $4 billion of options expired.
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that the majority of put open interest is concentrated in the $70,000 strike price, but sees that as a very unlikely outcome.
«As far as the expiry on Friday is concerned you see most of open interest concentrated in calls around $82,000 strike and $70,000 strike in puts. Max pain theory would suggest that we would move towards this range between $70,000 — $82,000 but this seems to be relatively unlikely. My base case remains for some sort of temporary consolidation amid elevated sentiment and high profit-taking but I don’t think that we would move towards this range in anytime soon since supply scarcity is still very much pronounced».
Diving into the out of the money (OTM) options, they are significantly dominated by puts. Out of the total notional value that is OTM is $5.2 billion (55%) and over $4.1 billion (98%) is in OTM puts. Traders were either hedging against downside risk, or making bearish bets that will most likely not materialize. Leaving investors with significant unrealized losses, that will put less downwards pressure on the market.
Dragosch believes that most of the concentration in puts are likely hedges and not bearish bets.
«BTC open interest is disproportionately concentrated in puts as the put-call open interest ratio is still hovering near the highest level since March 2024. The majority of these expiries will likely rolled over into puts as most of this open interest represents hedges and not outright downside bets in my opinion», Dragosch argues.
As bitcoin’s price is above $98,000 significantly higher than the max pain price of $78,000. The max pain price is the price point where the option holders experience the greatest losses, while the market makers who are the option sellers achieve maximum profit. Due to the large difference between max pain and the current bitcoin spot price, this is leaving many call options deep in the money. In addition, as the price is so far ahead of the max pain price, market makers may be forced to hedge by purchasing bitcoin which could fuel a further rally potentially taking bitcoin to the psychological level of $100,000.
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Strategy’s STRK Hits Record Proceeds, Has Outperformed Bitcoin, S&P 500 Since Debut

Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this report owns shares of Strategy (MSTR).
Strategy’s (MSTR) perpetual preferred stock, STRK, achieved the largest proceeds from its weekly at-the-market (ATM) issuance since the program started in February, according to X account DogCandles, raising $59.7 million that was used to buy more bitcoin BTC, according to a Monday SEC filing.
That amount corresponds to the issuance of approximately 621,555 STRK shares. Strategy has about $20.79 billion still available in the STRK ATM facility.
The company led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is plowing ahead with its bitcoin-buying strategy even as the price of the largest cryptocurrency holds above $100,000, with an eye on its January record of $109,000. Strategy’s Monday BTC purchase took its total holdings to 576,230 BTC.
This represents a 16.3% BTC yield, a key performance indicator (KPI) that reflects the year-to-date percentage increase in the ratio of MSTR’s bitcoin holdings to its assumed diluted shares outstanding, effectively measuring the growth in BTC exposure on a per-share basis.
The recent STRK issuance represents just under 9% of the total proceeds generated from the ATM program for the common stock, which has raised $705.7 million to date. This highlights the increasing role STRK is playing in Strategy’s bitcoin acquisition model.
STRK features a fixed 8% annual dividend, which is based on the $100 per share liquidation preference, resulting in an annual payout of $8.00 per share.
That gives it an effective yield, annual dividend divided by STRK share price, of 8.1%. Importantly, this yield is inversely related to the share price. As STRK trades higher, the yield decreases, and vice versa.
Since its launch on Feb. 10, STRK has risen by 16%, outperforming both bitcoin, which has added 10%, and the S&P 500, which has declined by 2% over the same period.
According to data from the Strategy dashboard, STRK exhibits the lowest correlation with MSTR common stock, sitting at just 44%. In contrast, STRK maintains relatively higher correlations with broader market benchmarks: 71% with bitcoin and 72% with the SPY exchange-traded fund.
This suggests that STRK trades with a unique profile, potentially appealing to investors seeking differentiated exposure due to its hybrid nature as a preferred equity instrument with bitcoin-tied capital deployment.
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Kraken Rolls Out Regulated Crypto Derivatives in Europe

Kraken is rolling out regulated crypto derivatives trading in Europe, compliant with the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II).
The crypto exchange’s perpetual and fixed maturity futures contracts will now be available for retail and institutional customers in the European Economic Area (EEA), the firm said on Tuesday.
Permission to trade crypto derivatives came via a Cypriot investment firm called Greenfield Wealth, which Kraken acquired earlier this year, securing the exchange a license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC).
The crypto derivatives space has seen some significant moves lately, with big players like U.S.-listed Coinbase (COIN) acquiring leading trading platform Deribit. In Europe, exchanges such as Bitstamp and Gemini are entering the fold, while the MiFID II license held by FTX EU has been acquired by BackPack.
Kraken also made a $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader to drive derivatives trading in the U.S. As well as its European license, Kraken acquired Crypto Facilities, a U.K. FCA-regulated crypto futures platform, in 2019.
Kraken’s joined-up approach means the contracts European clients will have access to already command a relatively high volume, roughly between $1 billion and $2 billion per day, according to Shannon Kurtas, head of exchange at Kraken.
“This is not offering access to a new trading venue or new contracts,” Kurtas said in an interview. “These are existing contracts that have material volume trading on them and along with that comes established liquidity, better execution costs and fiat rails for getting collateral in and out efficiently and cheaply.”
The recent introduction of Kraken’s Embed crypto connectivity application means neobanks and fintechs in Europe can also offer derivatives, as well as spot, to their clients, Kurtas said.
Picking up licenses in smaller and arguably more nimble jurisdictions like Cyprus and Malta has become a well-trodden path for Crypto firms with deep pockets.
“More nimble is probably a fair characterization,” Kurtas said. “Also, there’s been an established set of firms, particularly in the CFD space, who traditionally have offered retail access to FX derivatives and CFDs, and so there’s kind of a nexus of individuals, firms and know-how, if you will, in the area for these products.”
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Ether Is Set to Explode as Traders Pump Millions Into $6K ETH Bets

Crypto traders are betting big on ether ETH in the wake of the recent rally.
Last week, block traders, typically institutions and large players, executed bull call spreads on ether, purchasing the $3,500 call options while simultaneously shorting an equal number of calls at the $6,000 strike, both set to expire on Dec. 26.
Traders executed the strategy via over-the-counter platform Paradigm, which was later listed on crypto exchange Deribit. Traders executed 30,000 contracts of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads across 10 separate trades, spending just over $7 million in initial debt/cost.
The strategy will yield the highest profit if ether rises to or beyond $6,000 by Dec. 26. On Paradigm and Deribit, one options contract represents one ETH.
Therefore, the large volume of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads indicates a strong expectation of a bullish move to $6,000 by the end of the year. As of writing, ether changed hands at $2,510, according to CoinDesk data.
Note that if ETH stays below $3,600, the strategy will expire worth less, limiting the loss to the initial cost of $7 million. Another downside of this strategy is that traders stand to lose out on potential upside above $6,000 due to the short position at that strike level.
Ether’s price has risen over 80% to $2,500 since early April, when the broader market panic saw ETH hit a low of around $1,390 on several exchanges.
Magadini said there is no reason to call tops in ETH right now.
«I continue to like these upside trades, especially for the beat-up Ethereum, as risk assets continue to rally. There’s a good argument for ETH «catching-up» as spot ETFs with staking rewards could be a catalyst for institutional participation and sentiment turns around. No reason to be calling tops right now,» Magadini said.
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