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Bitcoin Options Worth $9B Expire Friday, Traders May be Thankful for the Post-Thanksgiving Volatility

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The crypto market should see a pick up in volatility at the end of this week, as the monthly (BTC) and ether (ETH) options contracts are set to expire this Friday. This comes a day after the U.S. bank holiday Thanksgiving, giving traders an opportunity to be thankful for a potential increase in volatility.

BTC and ETH options contracts worth $9.4 billion and $1.3 billion will expire on the trading exchange Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Nov. 29. An option allows the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset as a specific price within a certain time period.

According to Deribit data, breaking down the $9.4 billion in notional value in bitcoin that is set to expire on Friday. Over $4.2 billion (45%) of the total notional value is «in-the-money» (ITM). Out of this $4.2 billion, almost 80% of them are calls that are ITM. A call that is ITM is a strike price that is below the current market price, while the opposite can be said for ITM puts that are strikes above the spot price.

As a large amount of call options are ITM this could see a lot of volatility as we get closer to the options expiry, as investors look to close their bets and profit substantially. The volatility was seen last month on Oct. 25, which was the last Friday of the month, which saw a 3% decrease in bitcoin’s as over $4 billion of options expired.

Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that the majority of put open interest is concentrated in the $70,000 strike price, but sees that as a very unlikely outcome.

«As far as the expiry on Friday is concerned you see most of open interest concentrated in calls around $82,000 strike and $70,000 strike in puts. Max pain theory would suggest that we would move towards this range between $70,000 — $82,000 but this seems to be relatively unlikely. My base case remains for some sort of temporary consolidation amid elevated sentiment and high profit-taking but I don’t think that we would move towards this range in anytime soon since supply scarcity is still very much pronounced».

Diving into the out of the money (OTM) options, they are significantly dominated by puts. Out of the total notional value that is OTM is $5.2 billion (55%) and over $4.1 billion (98%) is in OTM puts. Traders were either hedging against downside risk, or making bearish bets that will most likely not materialize. Leaving investors with significant unrealized losses, that will put less downwards pressure on the market.

Dragosch believes that most of the concentration in puts are likely hedges and not bearish bets.

«BTC open interest is disproportionately concentrated in puts as the put-call open interest ratio is still hovering near the highest level since March 2024. The majority of these expiries will likely rolled over into puts as most of this open interest represents hedges and not outright downside bets in my opinion», Dragosch argues.

As bitcoin’s price is above $98,000 significantly higher than the max pain price of $78,000. The max pain price is the price point where the option holders experience the greatest losses, while the market makers who are the option sellers achieve maximum profit. Due to the large difference between max pain and the current bitcoin spot price, this is leaving many call options deep in the money. In addition, as the price is so far ahead of the max pain price, market makers may be forced to hedge by purchasing bitcoin which could fuel a further rally potentially taking bitcoin to the psychological level of $100,000.

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Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

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Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.

According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.

That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.

That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.

At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.

With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.

MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.

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HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

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HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.

The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.

The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.

Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
  • HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
  • Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
  • Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
  • The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
  • Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
  • High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
  • Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

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The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.

Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
  • The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
  • These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
  • Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
  • A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
  • The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
  • The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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