Connect with us

Uncategorized

Bitcoin Options Tilt Bearish Ahead of Friday’s Expiry: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

1 неделя ago

on

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

September has started much like August ended, with low volumes, subdued volatility, and most of the market-moving headlines coming from traditional finance.

Gold rose to $3,560 before easing back, while government bond yields globally retreated from recent highs.

Bitcoin perpetual funding rates, payments designed to keep perpetual futures contracts close to the spot price, have cooled and are now around 6% after hitting double-digit levels earlier. Open interest, meantime, continues to drop, with just over 720,000 contracts outstanding, denominated in BTC.

As for publicly listed bitcoin treasury companies, their multiples to net asset value (mNAV) are also extending declines.

Strategy (MSTR) now trades at an mNAV of just over 1.55 and Metaplanet (3350) sits at 1.71 after a 7% share-priced ecline in Japan trading. KindlyMD (NAKA) dropped a further 9% on Wednesday, leaving it down 75% from its all-time high, and now trades at an mNAV of 2.5.

More than $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit, on Friday, which is also the day of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. For bitcoin, $3.28 billion in notional value is due, with a max pain point at $112,000 and a put-call ratio of 1.38.

«Open interest is tilted toward puts, with notable clustering around the $105,000 to $110,000 strikes, suggesting downside protection remains a key theme,» the derivatives exchange said in a post on X.

Ether options account for $1.27 billion in notional value, with a put-call ratio of 0.78 and a max pain level of $4,400.

Deribit notes «flows are more balanced, but calls are building above $4,500, signaling growing interest in upside optionality». Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
    • Sept. 4: Apex Fusion’s dedicated EVM-compatible layer-2 blockchain, Nexus, goes live. The chain, which aims to unite UTXO and EVM ecosystems, integrates with Tenderly’s infrastructure and development toolkit.
    • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
  • Macro
    • Sept. 4, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases August U.S. private-sector employment data.
      • Employment Change Est. 68K vs. Prev. 104K
    • Sept. 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 48.7
      • Services PMI Prev. 49.3
    • Sept. 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.1
      • Services PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 51 vs. Prev. 50.1
    • Sept. 4, 1 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases August inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.53%
    • Sept. 4, 3 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases August producer price inflation data.
      • PPI YoY Prev. 2.2%
    • Sept. 4, evening: President Donald Trump will host a private dinner in the newly renovated White House Rose Garden for about two dozen top tech and business leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Bill Gates and Sam Altman.
    • Sept. 5, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July producer price inflation data.
      • PPI MoM Prev. -1.25%
      • PPI YoY Prev. 3.24%
    • Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases August employment data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9%
      • Employment Change Est. 7.5K vs. Prev. -40.8K
    • Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August employment data.
      • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 75K vs. Prev. 73K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
      • Government Payrolls Prev. -10K
      • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -11K
    • Sept. 5: S&P 500 Rebalance update released after market close. Strategy (MSTR) is one of the companies being considered for inclusion in the index.
    • Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics releases August consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.9%
    • Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: El Salvador’s Statistics and Census Office releases August consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.33%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.14%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 4: Cango (CANG), post-market
    • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market, $0.19

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia, adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes and a native mint/burn feature (for Orbit chains only). Voting ends Sept. 4.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
    • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting to establish “DUNI,” a Wyoming DUNA as its legal entity, preserving decentralized governance while enabling off-chain operations and liability protections, with $16.5M in UNI for legal/tax budgets and $75K in UNI for compliance. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS growth plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided distribution. The proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “No result, no reward” model. Voting ends Sept. 9.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $12.43 million.
    • Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.41 million.
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $15.33 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $15.89 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 4: Gata (GATA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Bitget, Gate.io, and others.
    • Sept. 4: Tradoor (TRADOOR) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget, MEXC and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Donald Trump-linked DeFi token word liberty financial (WLFI) slumped to a record low $0.174 on Thursday as the token’s popularity begins to fade just days after its trading debut.
  • The 21% daily drawdown can be attributed to a number of factors, notably the fact that some token holders are still in profit after purchasing during the token sale. These holders will be tempted to lock in their profits as hype around the project fades.
  • One trader made $250 million after buying $15 million during the sale, another lost $2.2 million after going long on WLFI futures.
  • While WLFI is linked to the U.S. president, in terms of development and innovation, there’s nothing obvious to differentiate it from the thousands of other DeFi-themed tokens. As a result traders may be inclined to jump ship until they see development of the project.
  • «WLFI team, stop sleeping and start taking action. The community is already angry, at least don’t lose the last remaining investors,» one holder wrote on X.
  • The chart looks eerily similar to the TRUMP memecoin that was released in January. After a period of initial upside, TRUMP lost 89% of its value and daily volume dwindled from $39 billion on opening day to just $210 million in the past 24 hours.
  • In an attempt to quell the selling pressure, the project revealed on X that WLFI held by the team would not be sold on the open market, stating that every token in the treasury would be subject to governance and not the team’s discretion.
  • The tweet failed to stem the decline, and prices continued to tumble shortly after.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC derivatives positioning has cooled, activity is still there however, with momentum and directional conviction looking muted rather than stagnant.
  • Open interest in perpetual futures across major venues has dropped from the recent peak near $33 billion to about $30 billion.
  • At the same time, the three-month annualized basis keeps compressing to roughly 5%–6% across Binance, OKX and Deribit, leaving the carry trade only marginally profitable.
  • Options data is sending mixed signals. While the upward-sloping implied volatility curve suggests the market expects long-term volatility to be higher than short-term, other metrics point to a more immediate bearish outlook.
  • Specifically, the 25 delta skew continues to be either flat or slightly negative, with traders paying a premium for puts over calls to gain downside protection. This short-term bearish sentiment is contradicted by 24-hour put call volume, with calls (63%) dominating options contracts for BTC.
  • Funding rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues are little changed around 4%-6% annualized, according to Velo data. Hyperliquid is the only exchange with a rate higher than 6% for BTC, reflecting a pocket of stronger long-term interest relative to other exchanges. Overall, funding dynamics suggest a stable market with isolated signs of froth, rather than broad directional conviction.
  • Coinglass data shows $225 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($65million), BTC ($46 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
  • The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $110,250 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price drop.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.06% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $111,024.03 (24hrs: -0.39%)
  • ETH is down 1.58% at 4,395.87 (24hrs: +0.84%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.28% at 4,035.47 (24hrs: -0.24%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.87%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1873% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 Index components' performance.

  • DXY is up 0.15% at 98.29
  • Gold futures are down 1.01% at $3,598.80
  • Silver futures are down 1.23% at $41.03
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.53% at 42,580.27
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,058.51
  • FTSE is up 0.19% at 9,194.99
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,326.92
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 45,271.23
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.51% at 6,448.26
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.02% at 21,497.73
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 28,751.36
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.11% at 2,756.91
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.195%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,468.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.24% at 23,505.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,308.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.44% (+0/13%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03961 (-0.58%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 990 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.54
  • Total fees: 6.28 BTC / $701,021
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 134,255 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.77%

Technical Analysis

TA Sept 4 2025

  • Altcoin dominance (excluding the top 10) has rebounded from a bottom just under 6% and is now testing key resistance near 8%. A decisive break above this level could signal sustained outperformance of alts relative to bitcoin
  • However, the move so far has been driven by a select number of tokens rather than a broad-based “alt season.”
  • Even if resistance is broken, this trend is likely to remain concentrated, not a wholesale surge across the entire altcoin universe.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $302.31 (-0.41%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $118.46 (-1.4%), +0.82% at $119.43
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.39 (+0.95%), +1.15% at $24.67
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.26 (-12.53%), -1.68% at $53.35
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.89 (-1.06%), -1.13% at $15.71
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.45 (-4.54%), -0.3% at $13.41
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.58 (-3%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.44 (-2.07%), -0.42% at $9.40
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $30.70 (-2.97%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.33 (-1.86%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $330.26 (-3.33%), -0.17% at $329.71
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.01 (-1.23%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.82 (-0.94%), -2.79% at $16.35
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.63 (-3.77%), +1.66% at $6.74
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.53 (-6.6%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $300.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.85 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$38.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.36 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.54 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

COD sept 4 2025

  • Comparing bitcoin price action with global M2 (a broad measure of money supply) on a six-week lead — shorter than the more commonly used 10-week lead — shows a striking correlation since the second quarter.
  • If this relationship persists, the model points to a potential BTC bottom around Sept. 11, followed by a resumption of the rally.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Streamer coinBitcoin’s volatility remains extremely low, even as macro uncertainty peaks.The odds of a September rate cut now stand at 96%Gold's market cap has increased by $6.5 trillion this year. Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.

Saksham Diwan contributed to this newsletter.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Ваш адрес email не будет опубликован. Обязательные поля помечены *

Uncategorized

AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

Published

6 часов ago

on

14 сентября, 2025

By

When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.

Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.

Power play

It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.

Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.

However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.

Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.

This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.

Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.

The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.

Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Terraforming AI

Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.

As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»

This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Higher returns

In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.

But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.

Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.

A niche industry worth billions

As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.

While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.

With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.

This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

Published

7 часов ago

on

14 сентября, 2025

By

Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.

The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.

Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.

The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.

Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.

The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.

US Initial Jobless Claims (TradingEconomics)

Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word «stagflation» is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.

Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.

Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.

So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?

To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode)

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag

However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.

Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.

The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.

MSTR (TradingView)

Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.

That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.

US 10-year (TradingView)

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.

A chart of the DXY index

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term

Published

21 час ago

on

13 сентября, 2025

By

Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, where markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

Equities are testing record levels. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Bitcoin One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Gold has climbed steadily toward record highs, while bitcoin has consolidated below its August peak, reflecting ongoing demand for alternative stores of value.

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin, and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.