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Bitcoin May See Gains from Soft U.S. CPI, Major Risk-On Surge in BTC Appears Unlikely

A soft U.S. inflation report later Wednesday will likely bode well for risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). But those expecting bullish fireworks may be disappointed.
The Labor Department will publish January’s consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 UTC. It’s expected to show that the cost of living increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January, slowing down from December’s 0.4% rise, according to Reuters estimates tracked by FXStreet. The annualized figure is expected to match December’s 2.9% reading.
The core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have risen to 0.3% month-over-month from 0.2%, resulting in an annualized reading of 3.1%, down from December’s 3.2%.
Lower-than-expected data, particularly the core figure, will likely bolster expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, which could lead to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar index, ultimately boosting demand for riskier assets. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market currently estimates a 54% chance that the Fed will either cut interest rates once or not at all this year.
While a potential adjustment in Fed rate cuts could lift BTC, it is unlikely to be the sole catalyst for a breakout from the ongoing consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000.
This is due to forward-looking market metrics indicating higher inflation in the coming months amid trade war fears, suggesting that the Fed may have a limited window to implement aggressive rate cuts.
Data tracked by Mott Capital Management shows that two-year inflation swaps have climbed to nearly 2.8%, the highest since early 2023. The five-year swap is exhibiting a similar trend. Higher inflation swaps indicate that the market is expecting inflation rates to rise in the future, prompting investors to pay a higher premium to protect themselves against potential purchasing power loss by entering into swap contracts tied to CPI.
In other words, the ongoing uptick in these metrics indicate that the progress in inflation toward the Fed’s 2% target has stalled, and price pressures are likely to increase over the coming years, probably due to Trump’s tariffs.
Plus, some investment banks believe a soft January CPI reading won’t see the Fed move away from its hawkish rate guidance. In his testimony to Congress Tuesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no hurry to cut rates.
«We don’t expect that progress on inflation will be enough to prompt additional interest rate cuts from the Fed this year,» RBC’s weekly note said, adding that January’s report will show limited easing in price pressures.
BlackRock said the persistent services inflation will keep the Fed from cutting rates.
«We get U.S. CPI for January this week. Even as December’s CPI report showed signs of inflation pressures easing, wage growth remains above the level that would allow inflation to recede back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, in our view. We see persistent services inflation forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer,» BlackRock said.
Lastly, BTC may move closer to the lower end of its $90K-$110K trading range should the CPI print hotter than expected.
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London Stock Exchange Unveils Blockchain-Based Platform for Private Funds

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) said it facilitated the first transaction on a new blockchain-based platform for private funds.
LSEG’s Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI), built using Microsoft Azure, is designed to use blockchain technology across the full lifecycle of an asset, from issuance to settlement, with greater scale and efficiencies than existing systems, according to a Monday announcement.
Investment manager MembersCap and digital asset exchange Archax were onboarded as DMI’s first clients and conducted the first transaction, which raised money for MembersCap’s MCM Fund 1.
LSEG said it will ensure DMI works with current market services in blockchain technology as well as traditional finance (TradFi).
DMI and its first transaction are «significant milestones demonstrating the appetite for end-to-end, interoperable, regulated financial markets» blockchain technology, Dark Hajdukovic, LSEG’s head of digital markets infrastructure, said in the statement.
TradFi exchanges in numerous markets have been embedding blockchain technology into their platforms as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing costs. Last week, the Nasdaq filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to tokenize stocks on its exchange for trading on the blockchain with trades assigned the same priority as the legacy method.
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Bitcoin Cohorts Return to Net Selling as Market Continues to Consolidate

Glassnode data shows that all wallet cohorts have returned to distribution mode, with a net selling of bitcoin, according to the Accumulation Trend Score breakdown by wallet cohort.
This metric disaggregates the Accumulation Trend Score to show the relative behavior of different groups of wallet. It measures the strength of accumulation for each balance size based on both the entities’ size and the volume of coins acquired over the past 15 days. (For more details on the methodology, see this Academy entry.)
- A value closer to 1 signals accumulation by that cohort.
- A value closer to 0 signals distribution.
Exchanges, miners and other similar entities are excluded from the calculation.
Currently, all cohorts, from wallets holding less than one bitcoin to those holding more than 10,000, are net sellers. This follows last week’s rally, when some whales — most notably the 10-100 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC cohorts were buying. They have since flipped back to selling.
Bitcoin was recently hovering near $117,000 after Asia’s trading session pushed it up from $115,000 dollars over the weekend. Over the past three months, Asia has consistently driven bitcoin roughly 10 percent higher, according to Velo data. In contrast, the European trading session has been marked by pullbacks, which has been seen on Monday so far. In addition, bitcoin is down more than 10% in the EU market over the past three months.
Overall, the market remains in consolidation, a trend likely to persist through September. On current data, the $107,000 marked at the start of September still appears to be the most probable bottom.
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Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack

Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.
On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.
The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.
With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.
The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.
Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.
Memecoins drop, broader market bid
SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.
The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.
According to the technical analysis model:
- SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
- The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
- Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
- Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
- Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.
Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment
Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.
A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.
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