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Bitcoin May Consolidate in $120K-$130K, Here are 3 Reasons Why

This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Looks north; Dealer gamma, Vol and DXY in focus
Bitcoin (BTC) just shattered records, surging past $123,000 early Monday, continuing the march to $140,000 levels indicated by the strong breakout in BlackRock’s IBIT last week.
There’s every reason to be incredibly bullish here as we face a «Goldilocks» moment for bitcoin: a pro-crypto U.S. President calling for ultra-low interest rates against the backdrop of fiscal splurge and stock market highs. It’s an unprecedented alignment of bullish BTC factors.
Price charts show no signs of popular indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) diverging bearishly and major averages, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving average (SMAs) remain stacked bullishly one above the other on daily and intraday charts.
Watch out for a breakout in the cumulative open interest in BTC perpetual futures listed on offshore exchanges as an additional bullish development.
Overall, prices appear on track to test $130,000 the upper end of the ascending parallel channel drawn off April 9 and June 22 lows and the high on May 22.
That said, we could be in for consolidation between $120,000 and $130,000 for some time. Here is why:
Market makers are long gamma
Options market makers are long gamma at strikes from $120,000 and $130,000 according to activity on Deribit tracked by Amberdata. Most of that is concentrated in the July 25, Aug. 1 and Aug. 29 expiries.
It means that market makers will likely buy low and sell high within that range to balance their net exposure to neutral, arresting the price volatility. That could keep prices rangebound, assuming other things are equal. A similar dynamic likely played out early this month, maintaining prices tethered to the $108,000-$110,000 range for some time.
DVOL upswing
Bitcoin’s bull run from $70,000 to $122,000 is characterized by a breakdown in the historical positive correlation between the spot price and Deribit’s DVOL, which measures the 30-day implied or expected price turbulence. In other words, the DVOL has been trending lower throughout the price rally in a classic Wall Street-like dynamics.
However, DVOL seems to have found a bottom at around annualized 36% since late June. Moreover, applying technical analysis indicators like the MACD to the DVOL suggests the index could soon turn higher, and it could mean a correction in BTC’s price, considering the two variables are now negatively correlated.
DXY ends downtrend
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major currencies, has bounced nearly 17% to 97.00 this month. The recovery has penetrated the downtrend line, representing the sell-off from early February highs.
The breakout indicates the end of the downtrend. This comes as potential U.S. sanctions on countries buying Russian oil could lift energy prices, a positive outcome for the energy-independent U.S. and the USD, as ING said in a note to clients Monday.
Accelerated recovery in the DXY could cap upside in the dollar-denominated assets like BTC and gold.
- AI’s take: When options market makers are «long gamma,» it means their delta (directional exposure) increases as the price moves in their favor and decreases when it moves against them. This typically leads to a stabilizing effect on price: as BTC rises towards $130,000 market makers will sell some BTC to maintain their delta-neutral positions, and if it dips towards $120,000 they’ll buy. This can create a «pinning» effect, keeping BTC within that $120,000-$130,000 range, especially as the July and August expiries approach.
- Resistance: $130,000, $140,000, $146,000.
- Support: $118,800, $116,650, $112,000.
ETH: Still stuck in an expanding triangle
Despite the 22% month-to-date gain, ETH remains stuck in an expanding channel, identified by trendlines connecting May 13 and June 11 highs and lows hit on May 18 and June 22.
As of writing, prices pushed against the upper trendline, but the probability of a convincing breakout looked bleak due to the daily chart stochastic flashing overbought conditions. In such situations, a pullback usually sets the stage for a breakout, which would shift focus to $3,400, a level targeted by options traders.
- AI’s take: The daily stochastic being overbought indicates that momentum is stretched, making a convincing push above the upper trendline unlikely in the short term.
- Resistance: $3,067 (the 61.8% Fib retracement), $3,500, $3,570, $4,000.
- Support: $2,905, $2,880, $2,739, $2,600
SOL: Dual breakout reinforced
On Friday, we discussed the dual bullish breakout in Solans’ SOL (SOL), marked by an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout and prices moving above the Ichimoku cloud. That has been reinforced by Monday’s bounce, marking a quick recovery from the weekend’s minor price dip. A move through Friday’s high of $168 would add to bullishness, strengthening the case for a rally to $200.
- AI’s take: The quick recovery from the weekend dip, reinforcing the breakouts, is crucial. It indicates that the previous bullish signals were not «fakeouts» and that there’s underlying buying interest willing to step in on minor pullbacks.
- Resistance: $180, $190, $200.
- Support: $150 (the 100-day SMA), $145, $125.
XRP: MACD flips bullish
XRP’s (XRP) weekly chart MACD histogram has crossed above zero, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. The pattern is reminiscent of the bullish MACD trigger in BTC that set the stage for a record rally from $70,000 last year.
That, coupled with the 14-day RSI signaling the strongest bull momentum since December, points to an impending breakout above $3 and a rally to new lifetime highs in the near term. Watch out for bearish RSI divergences on intraday charts as those could mark temporary price pullbacks.
- AI’s take: «Reminiscent of BTC’s bullish MACD trigger»: This comparison is powerful. If XRP is following a similar pattern to BTC’s previous record rally, it suggests the potential for a significant and sustained uptrend.
- Resistance: $3.00, $3.40
- Support: $2.20, $1.90, $1.60.
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Bitcoin Mining Stocks Lead Crypto Equity Gains After BTC Hits $122K

Bitcoin mining stocks led the gains among crypto equities in early trading on Monday after BTC raced to a new a all-time high just shy of $123,000 (it’s since retreated a bit to just under $122,000).
MARA Holdings (MARA) traded almost 10% higher at around $20.95 in the first hour after markets opened, while CleanSpark (CLSK) climbed just under 7.5% to $13.59.
Fellow mining companies Core Scientific (CORZ) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) saw slightly more modest gains of 4%-5% in early trading.
Away from the mining sector, other prominent crypto stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) were both about 3.75% higher, while Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) gains were under 2%.
Bitcoin had ascended to an all-time high of around $122,870 during the European morning, before dropping back to trade at about $121,700 as the markets opened in the U.S.
Read More: Michael Saylor’s Strategy Adds 4,225 Bitcoin, Bringing BTC Stack to 601,550
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‘Regime Change’ at Fed? Crypto Rallies as Pressure Mounts on Chairman Jerome Powell

All things being equal, easier monetary policy tends to be good for risk assets — crypto surely among them. Bitcoin rallied to above $120,000 for the first time ever over the weekend as pressure on hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to step down or be fired amped even higher. Coincidence?
To review, Jerome Powell — who rushed through 75 basis points of rate cuts prior to the 2024 election — quickly switched to a more hawkish stance following Donald Trump’s election (though he did allow one more 25 basis point cut just after November), and it famously hasn’t sat well with the president.
«Frankly, it’s about breaking some heads,» said former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on Fox News on Sunday. Warsh, who has been consistently touted as a leading possible replacement for Powell, added that the central bank’s $2.5 billion renovation project was among several examples of how the Fed «has lost its way» and said it was time for «regime change.»
Also appearing on TV on Sunday and also another contender to lead a post-Powell Fed, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset said the president’s possible power to fire Jerome Powell is «being looked into … but certainly if there’s cause, he does.»
The latest angle of attack against Powell is the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project. Powell is being questioned not just over the massive expense, but over whether he may have misled Congress in his testimony regarding the renovation. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought last week sent Powell a list of questions regarding the project.
The Fed over the weekend created a new FAQ page on its website to give its side of the story.
Trump doesn’t ease up
Adding his comments over the weekend, the president said it would «be a great thing» for the country if Powell were to exit.
«Jerome Powell has been very bad for our country,» he added. «We should have the lowest interest rate on Earth, and we don’t. He just refuses to do it.»
«I don’t know what he knows about building, but you talk about cost overrun,» Trump said of the $2.5 billion renovation. He reminded that the project was approved and began moving forward while Joe Biden was still president.
Regulatory angle as well
While Powell has kept a publicly neutral stance towards crypto, a new Fed chair could be seen as a positive for the community even beyond what surely would be easier monetary policy.
Powell, over the years, has maintained his stance that bitcoin is a competitor to gold rather than to the U.S. dollar given that people are not using it as a form of payment but rather as an investment vehicle.
However, he has repeatedly called for clearer regulation, specifically around stablecoins and their risks to financial stability as the industry continued to grow more mainstream. He has also stressed the importance of consumer protections as well as concerns about «debanking» practices in which financial institutions are forced to cut ties with crypto firms due to the risks associated with the asset class.
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Democrats Must Embrace Crypto: Terry McAuliffe

As a lifelong Democrat and former Governor of Virginia, I’ve always believed our party should be on the side of growth, innovation, and economic opportunity. That’s why I’m concerned that too many Democrats are standing on the sidelines or standing in the way of one of the most transformative financial innovations of our time: blockchain and cryptocurrency.
Blockchain and crypto are already driving job creation across the country, from data centers and fintech startups to cybersecurity firms and developers working on decentralized infrastructure. This technology means more jobs, higher wages, and more money in people’s pockets, especially in communities that have been left behind by the traditional financial system.
The numbers don’t lie. Voters overwhelmingly support integrating crypto into the American financial system. More than two-thirds of Americans believe there should be clearer rules and regulations for the crypto industry, rather than leaving it largely unregulated, according to multiple industry-leading public opinion polls.
And two-thirds believe the current global financial system favors powerful interests and not them. Democrats need to understand that voters want an alternative to the current financial system that provides them with the economic freedom that is so desperately needed. That is a winning middle class message.
These numbers reflect a clear mandate for action. Yet our party’s leadership has often approached crypto with skepticism or outright hostility, creating a partisan divide on an innovation that should transcend political boundaries.
This misalignment became painfully evident during recent elections, with Republicans, including Donald Trump, having embraced crypto, while Democrats appeared out of touch with the technological revolution reshaping our economy. We cannot afford to cede this ground, especially when crypto and blockchain offer solutions to many of the economic challenges we’ve long sought to address.
The Democratic Party has always stood for expanding economic opportunity and ensuring that working people aren’t taken advantage of by powerful financial institutions. As a lifelong entrepreneur and Virginia’s former governor, I’ve seen how embracing innovation can open doors for workers, businesses, and families across every corner of our economy. Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are no exception—they offer real tools to increase financial inclusion, expand access, and create good-paying jobs.
This isn’t just theory, it is what voters are telling us. Communities of color and younger Americans, especially young men, see real promise in crypto as a path to economic empowerment. These are core Democratic constituencies, and they’ll be essential to winning back the map in 2028 and beyond. If we want to remain the party of opportunity, we have to lead the way on forward-looking regulation—not stand in the way of progress.
Innovation in crypto means financial services for communities traditionally underserved by conventional banking systems, offering faster, cheaper transactions and broader access to capital. For minority communities, in particular, who have historically faced discrimination in traditional banking, crypto represents a path to financial empowerment through self-custody and consumer choice. Small businesses should not have to pay 3, 4 or 5% of their profits to companies when transactions can be done at a fraction of the cost. Crypto will create a system of payment that benefits consumers and small businesses everywhere.
Now, we have a crucial opportunity to correct our course. The GENIUS Act, which now awaits action in the House, presents a framework for smart, progressive regulation positioning America as a global leader in stablecoins.
Stablecoins are crypto tokens backed by U.S. dollars held in a bank that provide a cheaper and faster way of moving dollars than the dated ACH system. This legislation offers a balanced approach that both nurtures innovation, strengthens the U.S. dollar and establishes necessary guardrails.
The GENIUS Act’s provisions will streamline our financial system and eliminate costly fees that disproportionately affect small businesses and low-income Americans. It will mean Americans can send money to family abroad in milliseconds, for fractions of a penny, using dollar backed stablecoins like USDC on lightning-fast public blockchains like Solana. This is exactly the kind of forward-thinking policy that Democrats should be championing; it’s about creating a more accessible, efficient, and equitable financial system for all Americans.
Our party’s current stance isn’t just out of step with innovation—it’s out of step with the very voters we need to win. Across the country, growing numbers of Americans—especially younger voters and communities of color—see cryptocurrency as a pathway to financial opportunity and economic inclusion. These are the same voters who have long formed the backbone of the Democratic coalition. If we continue to treat this technology with suspicion rather than vision, we risk pushing away the very people we should be fighting for—not just in the next election, but for years to come.
The path forward is clear. House Democrats must embrace crypto regulation that balances innovation with consumer protection. The GENIUS Act provides this framework for stablecoins, offering an opportunity to demonstrate our commitment to fairness and financial inclusion.
This isn’t just about winning elections – though that matters – it’s about ensuring America leads the next generation of innovation and creates a platform for Americans to own their financial future. At the dawn of the internet era, the United States led the way with innovation friendly regulation and because of that we are home to nearly every major player in the online industry. Today, other nations are moving quickly to establish themselves as crypto hubs. We can either help shape this future or let the next Silicon Valley be built overseas.
For Democrats, this is a moment of choice. We can continue down our current path of skepticism and resistance, or we can embrace the transformative potential of cryptocurrency while ensuring it develops in alignment with our values of fairness, inclusion, and innovation.
The time has come for Democrats to lead the way on crypto policy. Our party’s future – and America’s competitive edge in the global financial system – may depend on it.
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