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Bitcoin Longs Could See Wave of Liquidation Between $73.8K-$74.4K as ‘Treasury Basis Trade’ Unwinds

The worst fears for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are coming true, and that has raised the risk of bitcoin (BTC) falling below $74,000 in a move that could shake out leveraged long bets.
On Sunday, CoinDesk discussed the possibility of pronounced downside volatility in risk assets due to a potential unwinding of the Treasury market arbitrage bets, a dynamic that catalyzed the 2020 crash.
Per observers, the unwinding of the so-called carry trades, involving hedge funds exploiting minor price discrepancies between Treasury futures and securities, has begun. That’s evident from the nearly 70 basis points rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 4.5%. The 30-year yield has seen a similar rise. Note that yields move in the opposite direction of prices and typically drop during risk aversion as investors seek refuge in government bonds.
«It’s all running vertical now with 30-year Treasury yields on the cusp of hitting the 5% mark. For some context, 10-year yields in the US were at a low of 3.88% on Monday. This points to further liquidation in Treasuries and that’s a sign that we are seeing distress in the parts of the market that we should not normally talk about i.e. funding, credit, repo,» ForexLive’s analyst Justin Low said in a market update discussing the implosion of the basis trade.
Low added that it’s «all going sideways at the moment» as a sharp rise in yields itself can have a far-reaching impact on markets, housing and the economy.
Stocks drop, BTC under pressure
Futures tied to the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, fell 2% amid increased volatility in the Treasury market. Bitcoin fell briefly below $75,000 early today and has since recovered to trade near $76,000, CoinDesk data showed.
The MOVE index, which represents the options-implied 30-day price turbulence in the Treasury market, jumped to 140, the highest since October 2023, according to data source TradingView.
The worsening of the risk sentiment has raised the risk of BTC falling to the $73.8K-$74.4K range, where holders of bullish long positions in the perpetual futures listed on major exchanges face liquidation risks, according to data tracked by analytics firm Hyblock Capital.
Liquidation represents the forced closure of positions by exchanges due to margin shortages. Large long liquidations often add to downside price volatility.
«We see long liquidation clusters (where we estimate liquidations to get triggered) at 73800-74400, 69800-70000, 66100-67700. In particular, if we hit 70k, we likely go down at least $200 more, taking the retail stop losses right below 70k and the liquidation levels liquidity,» Hyblock told CoinDesk.
On the higher side, Hyblock identified $80,900-$81,000, $85,500-$86,700, and $89,500-$92,600 as prominent zones for potential short liquidations.
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Metaplanet Buys Another 1,004 Bitcoin, Lifts Holdings to Over $800M Worth of BTC

Tokyo-listed investment firm Metaplanet has purchased another 1,004 bitcoin (BTC) for approximately $104.3 million, bringing its total holdings to 7,800 BTC.
The average purchase price for this latest tranche was $103,873 per bitcoin, according to a Monday disclosure.
The company’s total bitcoin position, acquired at an average price of $91,300 per BTC, is now valued at just over $806 million based on current market prices. The move is part of Metaplanet’s long-term goal to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025.
It began acquiring bitcoin in April 2024 and has since leaned heavily into a treasury strategy modeled after firms like Strategy (MSTR).
The latest purchase comes as bitcoin continues to hover just below its all-time high, trading around $103,343 at the time of writing. The broader crypto market has rallied in recent weeks amid improving macro sentiment.
Metaplanet has financed its bitcoin acquisitions through a series of bond sales, most recently completing its 15th ordinary bond issuance, worth $15 million.
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The Bull Case for Galaxy Digital is AI Data Centers Not Bitcoin Mining, Research Firm Says

When Galaxy Digital (GLXY) CEO Mike Novogratz bought Argos’ Helios data center in late 2022, at the depths of the post-FTX crypto winter, the company thought they were bailing out a desperate bitcoin (BTC) miner on the brink of bankruptcy.
This, however, was before ChatGPT had become mainstream. Novogratz and co. had no idea that this data center would be a strategic asset as the growing Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry clamours for more data center space, thanks to the explosive growth of Large Language Models (LLMs).
As analysts from Rittenhouse Research outlined in a new note, Galaxy’s lucky find, which instigated the company’s move out of BTC mining altogether, might now be crypto’s most lucrative pivot, as they make the case that the infrastructure used to mine digital gold is better used to process AI algorithms, and firms that shift away from BTC mining towards AI infrastructure are set to be the next growth stocks.
Analysts from Rittenhouse argue that AI data centers represent a significantly more lucrative business model than BTC mining because they generate stable, long-term cash flows with minimal ongoing capital expenditures, contrasting sharply with the volatility and capital intensity of bitcoin mining.
BTC mining revenues inherently decline by approximately 50% every four years due to the scheduled halvinings. Effectively, the play for a miner is being a long-term bull on BTC’s price and the ability for semiconductor fabs and designers to develop chips that are perpetually more efficient, and, for an investor, that’s a lot of variables.
In contrast, AI data centers like Galaxy’s Helios facility earn consistent, high-margin revenue through long-term, triple net leases to hyperscaler tenants (a large-scale cloud computing provider), without needing continuous investment in mining equipment.
“Galaxy stumbled upon Helios by virtue of good luck,” Rittenhouse wrote in their note. While competitors such as Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining have publicly tried to «rewrite history,» retroactively suggesting their business was always broader than BTC mining, analysts say, “in reality, these miners had zero intentions to do anything besides mine BTC until ChatGPT was launched.”
A broader industry shift?
Galaxy’s transition reflects a broader trend as BTC miners attempt to pivot toward AI and cloud computing.
Yet, analysts underscore Galaxy’s significant advantage, stemming from its superior balance sheet ($1.8 billion of net cash and investments), successful execution record, and credibility established through the CoreWeave lease.
While some have raised concerns over CoreWeave’s creditworthiness, causing Galaxy’s shares to trade at a significant discount, Rittenhouse analysts say these fears are significantly overblown, highlighting CoreWeave’s exceptional revenue stability from long-term contracts accounting for 96% of its revenues and its strong institutional backing.
The analysts emphasize that CoreWeave’s debt is carefully structured through delayed draw term loans, utilized specifically to finance infrastructure directly linked to secured customer agreements, dramatically reducing default risk.
Rittenhouse also notes that Galaxy has gone fully in on AI, and now doesn’t have any exposure to mining.
«Galaxy has completely exited all bitcoin mining activities to focus solely on its AI data center ambitions, which sends a positive signal to potential hyperscaler tenants,» analysts wrote.
As Rittenhouse writes, Cipher Mining’s CEO Tyler Page recently acknowledged the uphill battle miners face when approaching major AI customers.
«It’s not lost on us that if we’re talking to a counterparty with a $1 trillion market cap… One drawback for bitcoin miners is that major counterparties say, ‘wow, that’s a big obligation for you guys to backstop for such an important investment for us,’» Page said on the company’s Q1 2025 earnings call.
Galaxy doesn’t have that problem. With this Helios deal in place and Novogratz’s company totally out of mining, Galaxy’s accidental pivot might just turn out to be crypto’s best strategic move in years – if Rittenhouse’s thesis is correct.
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Binance, Kraken Thwarted Social Engineering Attacks Similar to Coinbase Hack

Binance and Kraken, two of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, were recently targeted in a wave of social engineering attacks similar to the one that led to a major data breach at Coinbase.
Hackers approached customer support agents with bribery offers and detailed instructions for contacting attackers through Telegram, Bloomberg reports citing people familiar with the matter. Both exchanges managed to block the attempts without losing any customer data.
The exchanges faced tactics mirroring those used against Coinbase (COIN), which earlier this week revealed it expects to pay $180 million to $400 million in remediation costs and customer reimbursements after attackers gained access to their personal information.
That breach led to a $20 million ransom demand after the attackers managed to bribe Coinbase’s overseas employees/contractors to get customer information. The exchange has fired the staff involved and has contacted law enforcement.
At Binance, internal systems including artificial intelligence bots helped detect bribery-related messages, shutting down conversations before they escalated. Policies that limit access to customer data unless users initiate contact also helped mitigate risk.
Coinbase’s reportedly started seeing unusual activity in January, and last December, rival exchanges had begun warning the company about unusual activity targeting its largest clients.
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