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Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have 163K More BTC to Sell, History Indicates: Van Straten

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Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 7.6% since it almost — but not quite — touched the psychological wall of $100,000 on Nov. 22.

That’s the biggest drop since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, sparking a rally that sent the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization soaring from a level of around $66,000 through its record high.

Even so, the slide isn’t out of the ordinary. In bull markets bitcoin typically tumbles as much as 20% or even 30%, so-called corrections that tend to flush out leverage in an overheated market.

A large part of the reason the bitcoin price didn’t get to $100,000 was the amount of profit-taking that took place. A record dollar value of $10.5 billion of profit-taking took place on Nov. 21, according to Glassnode data, the biggest day of profit-taking ever witnessed in bitcoin.

At the root of the action are the long-term holders (LTH), a group Glassnode defines as having held their bitcoin for more than 155 days. These investors are considered «smart money» because they tend to buy when the BTC price is depressed and sell in times of greed or euphoria.

From September to November 2024, these investors have sold 549,119 BTC, or about 3.85% of their holdings. Their sales, which started in October and have accelerated since, even outweighed buying from the likes of MicroStrategy (MSTR) and the U.S. spot-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

How long is this selling pressure going to last?

What’s noticeable from patterns in previous bull markets in 2017, 2021 and early 2024, is that the percentage drop gets smaller each cycle.

In 2017, the percentage drop was 25.3%, in 2021 it reached 13.4% and earlier this year it was 6.51%. It’s currently 3.85%. If this rate of decline were to continue, that would see another 1.19% drop or 163,031 BTC, which would take the cohort’s supply to 13.54 million BTC.

Each time, the long-term investors’ supply makes higher lows and higher highs, so this would also be in line with the trend.

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Validation Cloud Debuts Mavrik-1 AI Engine on Hedera to Democratize DeFi Data Analysis and Web3

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Crypto infrastructure company Validation Cloud announced Tuesday the debut of Hedera-based AI engine Mavrik-1 that lets users and developers get DeFi market insights by asking queries in plain English.

Despite DeFi’s promise in revolutionizing finance, its complexity has long acted as barrier against widespread adoption. For DeFi users, the learning curve is steep, requiring knowledge of complex terminologies such as liquidity mining, impermanent loss and staking. Many Defi platforms require users to interact with command-line interfaces and complex web applications.

With Mavrik-1, users can ask questions like «Which trading pairs have the largest spreads and which stablecoin has the highest on-chain
transaction volume?.» Imagine chatting with your personal AI advisor.

The ability to seek information via natural language queries represents democratization of data analysis and marks a shift in how investors interact with the blockchain protocols.

«This is a pivotal moment for the Hedera ecosystem,” Viv Diwakar, Chief Information Officer at Hedera Foundation, said in a press release shared with CoinDesk. “Validation Cloud’s Data x AI platform brings an entirely new way to engage with blockchain data. It’s a novel experience that unlocks usability and insight for builders, enterprises, and users in our ecosystem.”

Validation Cloud is the AI platform powering Web3 finance, delivering products across Data x AI, Staking, and Node API.

Mavrik-1 is deeply integrated with the Hedera-based DeFi applications, such as hUSDC, Karate Combat, and leading DeFi applications, the press release said. It is specially trained for blockchain environments, ensuring contextually relevant responses to queries.

«We built Mavrik because you shouldn’t need a PhD in Web3 to access and understand what’s happening on-chain,» said Andrew McFarlane, CTO of Validation Cloud. «By surfacing real-time intelligence in natural language, we’re making Web3 accessible to everyone.»

The launch on Hedera is the first step, which will be followed by integrations with other blockchains and a full public rollout, dubbed Mavrik 2, later this year.

Hedera debuted in 2021 and is a leaderless proof-of-stake network with aBFT hashgraph consensus. Hedera Foundation fuels the development of the Hedera ecosystem through grants and expert support for decentralized applications across DeFi, NFTs, and more.

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Genesis Files Suits Against DCG to Recover Billions Worth of Allegedly Fraudulent Transfers

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Crypto lender Genesis and its subsidiaries filed two lawsuits against its parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), DCG CEO Barry Silbert and other executives, seeking to recover what it called fraudulent transfers of crypto worth billions of dollars.

In total, Genesis and its creditors are seeking $3.2 billion across the two lawsuits. It is seeking to recover $2.2 billion in a suit filed in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware and more than $1 billion in a suit at the Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

The New York filing says money was withdrawn from Genesis to repay DCG, Silbert, affiliates and other insiders in the year that led up to Genesis filing for Chapter 11 even though the company was insolvent.

They «knew through their close relationship with Genesis that its business was on the brink of collapse» and took the opportunity to withdraw all their assets and recover 100% of crypto and dollar loans made to the platform while members of the public were «kept in the dark,» the suit alleges.

Genesis suspended withdrawals in November 2022 and went into bankruptcy the following year.

«Silbert and his cronies recklessly operated, exploited, and then bankrupted Genesis following a spectacular campaign of fraud and self-dealing,» the Delaware filing alleges.

Its creditors are still short $2.2 billion worth of crypto assets including bitcoin BTC, ether ETH and other tokens, the filing said.

Alongside seeking an award of damages, Genesis wants an equitable trust over any assets the «defendants improperly took or converted during their tenure as managers, officers, directors,» the filing said.

“These baseless lawsuits recycle the same tired, two-year old claims in an opportunistic attempt by sophisticated investors to extract additional value from DCG,» a spokesperson for the company said. «We worked in good faith with a wide range of stakeholders to try to achieve a comprehensive resolution of the DCG-related aspects of the Genesis bankruptcy. We will vigorously defend ourselves against these spurious claims.»

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SocGen’s Crypto Arm to Launch Dollar Denominated Stablecoin on Ethereum, Reports Say

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Société Générale’s crypto arm, SG Forge, is reportedly preparing to launch a dollar-backed stablecoin on Ethereum, making it the first global banking group to issue a public stablecoin tied to the U.S. dollar.

SG Forge’s dollar stablecoin would be publicly accessible on Ethereum, with additional support for Solana to follow. The launch is expected in the coming weeks, according to a report by French publication The Big Whale.

The move would expand SG Forge’s footprint in the digital asset space following the 2023 debut of its euro stablecoin, EURCV.

The token would initially serve institutional investors, leveraging SG Forge’s e-money license to operate legally across the European Union, according to the report.

The shift would come amid accelerating stablecoin adoption. World Liberty Financial, the decentralized finance project backed by the family of U.S. President Donald Trump, has launched its own dollar-denominated stablecoin, USD1, which has been used to settle MGX’s $2 billion investment in Binance.

Banks, according to BitGo’s managing director of stablecoin Ben Reynolds, are exploring stablecoins in a bid to avoid being outpaced by cryptocurrency-native competitors. These financial institutions are needed to unlock the full potential of these tokens, PayPal’s crypto head Jose Fernandez da Ponte said at Consensus 2025 in Toronto.

SG Forge’s euro-denominated stablecoin, EURCV, currently has a market capitalization of around $46.5 million, far behind competitors including Circle’s EURC token, whose market cap exceeds $237 million. Euro-denominated tokens represent a fraction of the $243 billion stablecoin market.

U.S. dollar stablecoins dominate the ecosystem, with Circle’s USDC commanding a $60.6 billion market cap, behind the market leader USDT, Tether’s flagship stablecoin with a $151.6 billion market cap.

SG Forge declined to comment.

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