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Bitcoin Likely to Head Even Lower, but Seeds of Next Bull Move Are Being Sown

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«I wouldn’t even be in this situation if it wasn’t for you. You brought down so much f—ing heat on me.» Robert De Niro as Ace Rothstein to Joe Pesci’s Nicky Santoro in Martin Scorsese’s Casino.

Bitcoiners could be forgiven for blaming the rest of crypto for the bear move that took the price of BTC down more than 20% from a record high above $109,000 just five weeks ago to as low as $87,000 earlier on Tuesday.

Bitcoin touched that record a day ahead of the presidential inauguration amid a speculative frenzy in memecoins that hit its dénouement as the Trump team thought it a good idea to launch tokens associated with the incoming president and first lady. The tokens initially rocketed higher before quickly crashing and leaving just about everyone except insiders with massive losses.

SOL, the native token of the Solana blockchain on which much of the memecoins were created, is down more than 50% since then, leading the plunge in the major cryptos since that January weekend.

Bitcoin bulls were promised a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and instead got TRUMP and MELANIA.

Bybit hack delivers blow

Even with the evisceration in memecoins and associated carnage in the broader crypto market over the past weeks, bitcoin managed to mostly stay in a tight range not that far below its record. As recently as 96 hours ago, the world’s largest crypto was on the rise and seemed set to retake the $100,000 level.

Then the Bybit hack hit.

While bitcoiners were quick to point out the exploit had noting to do with Bitcoin and instead once again demonstrated the inherent weaknesses in Ethereum’s technology, the plunge in ETH (down 15% and counting since) and the rest of crypto spread to BTC.

Bulls turn bear

«Our expectations for this cycle are much higher than $108,000, so we tell ourselves we couldn’t possibly have peaked already,» wrote self-described permabull StackHodler on X Tuesday. «We have to go higher in 2025, right,» he continued. «The truth is, nobody knows for sure. We just went through the short term holder realized price of $92,000 … We may need to revisit the 200 day moving average around $82,000.»

«DO NOT buy the dip yet, a move to the low $80s is on,» wrote Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick, who previously has forecast $200,000 BTC by year-end. «Before buying the dip is attractive I think we get a $1B ETF outflow day (current worst ever day -$583M).»

Seeds of next bull move being sown

Though not getting hit nearly as hard as crypto, traditional markets have been stumbling as well. As measured by the S&P 500 Index, U.S. stocks last week had their worst week since the Trump inauguration. The tech-heavy Nasdaq peaked in December and today sits 5% below that level.

Pick your excuse: Tariffs, DOGE (not the token, the Musk-led government cost-cutting regime), or just a cooling in previously very perky animal spirits, but rate markets have taken notice.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has pulled all the way back to 4.32% from 4.80% just ahead of Trump taking office. And expectations for easier monetary Federal Monetary policy have surged. The chances of a May rate cut have more than doubled to 30% over the past week and the chances of two rate cuts by June have more than tripled to 15%, according to CME FedWatch.

«Lower U.S. Treasury yields are a huge longer-term positive for BTC,» concluded Kendrick.

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Stablecoin Giant Circle Is Launching a New Payments and Remittance Network

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Circle, the firm behind the $60 billion USDC stablecoin, is launching a new payments and cross border remittance network on Tuesday — the company’s “next product move” — from its plush New York City headquarters, high on the 87th Floor of One World Trade Center.

The launch event is aimed at banks, fintechs, payment service providers, remittance providers and USDC strategic partners. It will feature Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire sharing his vision for the stablecoin giant’s next move within the payments space, according to an invite seen by CoinDesk.

New and incipient regulations around the globe are opening up the stablecoin space, where Circle has shared the limelight with larger rival Tether. It makes sense then that Circle — a firm that has successfully pivoted during its years in the crypto space — should look to consolidate its position and return to its roots as a payments company.

“Circle is launching a payments network that is initially targeting remittances but is ultimately aiming to rival Mastercard and Visa,» said a person familiar with the plans.

Stablecoins have reached an adoption level where the technology could disrupt global money transfers in a way similar to WhatsApp and international calls, VC firm Andreessen Horowitz said in recent report.

In a recent interview, crypto custody tech specialists Fireblocks pointed to billions being moved around by payments services providers doing things like cross border payments using stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

Circle was in the news most recently, after the firm announced plans to go public in the U.S., only to postpone the date of its IPO thanks to choppy and uncertain market conditions.

Circle did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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BNB, SOL, XRP Spike Higher as Bitcoin ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative Makes a Comeback

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Surging gold prices and bitcoin’s (BTC) relatively strong price action amid a global market sell-off have some traders revisiting the latter’s role as “digital gold” — a big narrative in bitcoin’s early years but one that has lost steam in recent times.

BTC zoomed above $87,000 in Asian morning hours, with Cardano’s ADA, BNB Chain’s BNB, XRP and ether (ETH) adding as much as 1.5%. The spike reversed all declines since Thursday, with tokens such as Solana’s SOL up 5.2% in the past week.

The tariff-driven trade wars have sparked fears of inflation and currency devaluation, prompting comparisons of the asset to gold’s historical role as a hedge.

“Although bitcoin has had a close correlation with U.S. equities, it seems to be changing with a stronger tie to the rise of the price of gold, which has been a safe haven while equities have plummeted,” Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message on Monday.

“Bitcoin crossed $87,000 as a sign of renewed investor confidence as the market continues to stabilize after panicking over tariffs. It’s also worth noting that Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative is taking off as both assets have grown in tandem,” Ruck said.

Gold set fresh highs Monday with a push above $3,380 per ounce, bringing year-to-date gains to 25%. Bitcoin has dropped more than 20% from a January peak of $108,000, though Monday’s push over $87,000 sent the asset to its highest level since Donald Trump’s “liberation day” in early April.

Pressure on the greenback has continued to grow as the dollar index (DXY) crashed to a three-year low, with some pointing out that most bad news has been “priced in” and that bitcoin could see upside in the coming days.

“Trump’s inclination to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and force interest rate cuts is causing people to sell the U.S. dollar and U.S. government debt, moving to other safe haven assets such as gold, European bonds, and now, Bitcoin,” Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message Monday.

“After all, when rates are cut, more money flows into the money supply, devaluing the U.S. dollar. In general, downward pressure on the US dollar is growing and this could be a driving catalyst for Bitcoin to become a safe haven asset,” Mei added.

Meanwhile, here’s a machine’s view of the markets today, powered by the CoinDesk Markets AI bot.

ADA Price Analysis

  • Cardano’s ADA is above 63 cents with strong technical indicators pointing to continued upward momentum despite macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Price action formed a clear ascending channel with strong support at $0.612, which successfully held during multiple retests.
  • Notable volume spike occurred on 2025-04-21 00:00 when volume reached 68M (3x average), propelling price through key resistance at $0.630.
  • Fibonacci extension levels suggest 64 cents as the next target, with an overall range of 0.031 (5.1%), indicating substantial volatility.
  • RSI remains below overbought territory despite the rally, suggesting potential for continued upward momentum.
  • Consolidation near previous resistance suggests accumulation rather than distribution.

XRP Price Analysis

  • XRP’s decisive breakout signals a potential end to months-long sideways trading, with technical indicators pointing to further gains ahead.
  • Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential continuation toward $2.15, with the 61.8% extension pointing to $2.18 as the next target if bullish momentum persists.

SOL Price Analysis

  • SOL breaks decisively above $135 resistance, surging 10.2% to establish new support levels with strong volume confirmation
  • Key technical battle emerges between $129 support and $144 resistance zones, with on-chain data showing 5.75% of realized volume concentrated at these critical levels
  • Price action formed a clear ascending channel with higher lows and higher highs, particularly evident in the April 19-21 rally.
  • Volume significantly increased during upward movements, confirming the strength of the bullish trend.
  • The 48-hour momentum indicators show bullish divergence with price maintaining strength above the 20-hour moving average.

BNB Price Action

  • BNB breaks $600 barrier with 3.2% surge as large holders accumulate during market volatility.
  • Recent quarterly token burn removed 1.57 million BNB worth over $1 billion, supporting price momentum.
  • Open interest in BNB rose 3.3% to $760 million despite negative funding rates, with 68% of traders betting on continued price increases.
  • BNB broke out of its consolidation range with a 3.2% surge from $592.63 to $601.74.
  • Price action shows clear bullish momentum with increasing volume, particularly during the breakout candle where volume spiked to 55,661 units.
  • Fibonacci extension targets suggest potential continuation toward the $605-610 zone if current momentum persists.
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Metaplanet Buys Another 330 BTC as BTC Moves Above $87K

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Publicly-listed Metaplanet announced fresh bitcoin (BTC) purchases on Monday as BTC went above $87,300, reversing last week’s loses.

Metaplanet picked up 330 BTC bring its overall holdings to 4,855 BTC, worth over $420 million, based on current prices.

This is the Japanese firm’s third bitcoin purchase this month, even as broader markets reel from tariff concerns amid a general lack of optimism. Earlier this month, Metaplanet became the tenth-largest public holder of BTC.

However, Metaplanet is not the only Japanese firm raking up bitcoin.Fashion brand ANAP Holdings purchase approximately 16.6591 BTC, valued at around 200 million yen (approximately $1.4 million), last week.

The holdings will be overseen by its subsidiary, ANAP Lightning Capital. The company plans to conduct quarterly market value assessments of its BTC holdings, with any gains or losses reflected in its profit and loss statements.

Its BTC yield from quarter-to-date is at 12.1% so far, with the previous quarter’s yield at 95%. BTC Yield is a custom metric used by the firm to assess the performance of its strategy. This measures the growth of bitcoin per fully diluted share.

Bitcoin has fared relatively better than U.S. equities in such a time of financial instability. U.S. equities lost $5.4 trillion in value in two days after President Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs earlier in April, which sent the Nasdaq tumbling down 11% at the time. BTC fell a relatively smaller 6%, in comparison.

Metaplanet’s stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is up nearly 0.9% since open.

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