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Bitcoin Hovers at $85K as Fed’s Waller Suggests ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts if Tariffs Resume

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Bitcoin (BTC) drifted ever so gently upwards Monday as the broader market adjusts favorably to trade-related news.

The largest cryptocurrency was up 1.6% in the last 24 hours and is now trading just shy of $85,000. Ether (ETH), meanwhile, rose 2.7% in the same period of time to $1,630. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index — consisted of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — advanced 1.2%, led by gains in SOL and AVAX.

After a couple of wild weeks, the stock market also edged higher today, the Nasdaq closing with a 0.6% gain and the S&P 500 rising 0.8%. Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA), led among crypto stocks with roughly 3% gains.

The modest rally came as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalling that a return of the original punitive Trump tariffs would trigger the need for sizable «bad news» rate cuts.

«[Tariff] effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy,» said Waller in a speech. «If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.»

Further easing concerns was the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, confirming to hold off on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion until July 14 to «allow space for negotiations.»

Odds that the U.S. and EU will reach a trade agreement to avoid tariffs rose to 65% on blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket after U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly stated that a deal was in the works.

Bitcoin fundamentals recovering

Bitcoin’s relief rally from last week’s tariff turmoil stalled out around the $85,000 resistance level, but the network’s improving fundamentals spur hopes for a breakout, crypto analytics firm SwissBlock Technologies noted.

«Since March, we’ve seen a consistent inflow of new participants,» Swissblock analysts wrote in a Telegram broadcast. «Liquidity is stabilizing, no more erratic swings from early 2025.»

«Once the liquidity gauge holds above the 50 line, short-term price action tends to follow with strength,» Swissblock analysts said. «With network growth aligning, key levels aren’t just being revisited, they’re being accumulated.»

«This is the kind of structural support that underpins sustainable rallies,» they concluded.

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Noble’s New ‘AppLayer’ Lets Developers Build Stablecoin Tools on Celestia

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Noble, a blockchain for issuing real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoins, announced Wednesday that it will expand its platform by introducing “AppLayer,” an Ethereum-compatible rollup that allows developers to create their own RWA applications and infrastructure.

Noble’s AppLayer aims to let developers build new financial tools optimized for real-world assets like stablecoins — digital assets whose value is pegged to another asset, like the U.S. dollar.

AppLayer will leverage Celestia, a data availability blockchain that aims to bring down storage costs for data-intensive blockchain networks. Celestia, like Noble, is plugged into the Cosmos blockchain ecosystem and is compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), meaning it can read smart contracts from other Ethereum-based chains.

The Noble team stated in a press release viewed by CoinDesk that it will launch its Ethereum-compatible AppLayer rollup in the third quarter of 2025.

“Noble plans to unlock its cross-ecosystem potential as EVM applications continue to seek reliable and seamless access to native stablecoin liquidity,” the team wrote. “Noble’s AppLayer will be seamlessly integrated with a number of blue chip DeFi projects born in the Ethereum ecosystem.”

Stablecoins have received considerable attention in recent weeks, with the U.S. Congress preparing significant stablecoin legislation later this year. Entities including President Trump’s World-Liberty Financial, banking giant Fidelity, and the U.S. state of Wyoming have also expressed plans to create their own stablecoins.

Noble launched in March 2023 as an application-specific blockchain, or «appchain,» purpose-built for stablecoin issuance within the Cosmos ecosystem. Initially, it aimed to expand liquidity Cosmos by enabling native asset issuance through the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol, which is the technology used by Cosmos-based blockchains to transfer assets and other data.

Over time, Noble has extended its reach beyond Cosmos, integrating with Ethereum and other ecosystems to facilitate quick stablecoin transfers. Additionally, in March, Noble introduced USDN, a yield-bearing stablecoin backed by U.S. Treasury bills.

“Building stablecoin issuance infrastructure over the past two years has given us a deep appreciation for the transformative potential of stablecoins to onboard the world to crypto,” said Jelena Djuric, co-founder and CEO at Noble, in the press release. “The Noble AppLayer, built with Celestia’s technology underneath, finally gives builders the freedom to build highly scalable and performant stablecoin-native applications.”

Read more: How a Ph.D. Student’s Research Paper Turned Celestia Into $345M Blockchain Project Overnight

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OKX to Expand to the US, Establish Regional HQ in California

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Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange OKX is expanding to the U.S., establishing a new regional headquarters in San Jose, California and rolling out access to its platform and its native OKX Wallet to U.S.-based crypto traders.

In a Tuesday evening announcement, newly-appointed CEO Roshan Robert said the expansion was “a commitment to responsible growth.” Robert was most recently an executive at institutional crypto lending platform CLST, and was a founding team member of crypto prime broker Hidden Road, which was recently acquired by Ripple for $1.25 billion.

“As regulations evolve, OKX is working closely with US regulators and policymakers to ensure we operate transparently and compliantly,” Robert wrote. “We’ve built a comprehensive, risk-based global compliance program that includes enhanced due diligence, a robust KYC process, customer risk rating systems, advanced fraud detection, AML tools, geo-blocking, and market surveillance technologies. These are all part of our commitment to a secure, compliant trading environment.”

Two months ago, a subsidiary of OKX settled charges that it had operated in the U.S. without a money transmitting license, agreeing to pay the Department of Justice (DOJ) over $500 million in penalties and forfeited fees. The DOJ alleged that, despite having an official policy prohibiting U.S.-based users from accessing its platform, OKX “sought out customers in the United States, including in the Southern District of New York.”

Read more: After Binance’s $4.3B Lesson, Do Rival Exchanges Risk Running Afoul of U.S. Rules?

OKX is not the first crypto company to eye an expansion or a return to the U.S., which has grown considerably friendlier to the crypto industry under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Earlier this month, token launch platform CoinList announced a return to the U.S. after five years away, and bigger names — including Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange — are reportedly considering returning to the U.S.

Existing customers of OKCoin, the U.S.-accessible sister company of OKX, will be “seamlessly migrated” to the OKX platform, which will offer customers “deeper liquidity, lower fees and advanced trading tools,” according to the company’s launch announcement.

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Bitcoin Slips With XRP, ADA as Nvidia’s Massive $5.5B Charge Sours Investor Sentiment

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The mood in the equity and crypto market turned sour late Wednesday as Nvidia shares crashed in after-hours trading following a $5.5 billion charge tied to the Trump administration’s decision to ban the company’s H20 chip sales to China.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell to $83,600, extending the retreat from the two-week high of $86,440 reached earlier in the day, CoinDesk data showed. Payments-focused XRP followed a similar trajectory, falling over 2% to $2.08, while Cardano’s ADA token slipped 4% to $0.61. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, weakened over 2%.

Meanwhile, coins supposedly associated with artificial intelligence (AI) continued to fare worse as shares in NVDA tanked 8% to $89.10 after the company disclosed in a regulatory filing that it expects to write down $5.5 billion in the fiscal first quarter due to the new restrictions on exports of its H20 chip to China.

The news came a day after unusual activity in NVDA put options pointing to an impending market swoon.

The futures tied to the Nasdaq index fell over 1% as well, offering negative cues to risk assets in general.

The next catalyst awaiting release Wednesday morning Eastern time is the U.S. retail sales report for March. Per economists polled by Dow Jones, the data is expected to show a 1.2% increase in consumer spending on the month, up from a 0.2% climb in February.

A better-than-expected report will likely help assuage recession fears triggered by President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and other trading partners. However, there is a risk that markets will dismiss it as backward-looking, failing to account for the major escalation in trade tensions seen this month.

Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on Wednesday at the Economic Club of Chicago on his outlook for the U.S. economy.

«All eyes are on Powell. Markets are holding their breath for Powell on Wednesday. Between the trade war and rising recession chatter, traders are watching for any hint the Fed might be forced to cut sooner than expected,» Secure Digital Markets said in Tuesday’s research note.

The forward-looking market-based measures like the inflation breakevens have dropped amid trade tensions, pointing to the disinflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs. That could provide the Fed with a leeway to cut rates.

Early this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the bank would be forced to quickly make a series of «bad news» rate cuts if the U.S. president reimposes the levies unveiled on April 2. Trump announced sweeping tariffs on 180 nations on April 2 but quickly suspended the same for most nations, excluding China, for 90 days.

Read more: Bitcoin Hovers at $85K as Fed’s Waller Suggests ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts if Tariffs Resume

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