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Bitcoin Gives Up Gains Post New Year-Spiral, But $120K Bets Still Remain Hot

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The new year kicked off on a happy note with bitcoin (BTC) moving towards $100,000, putting behind the weak price of December. Amid the cheer, CoinDesk warned against being too optimistic, noting the undercurrents of sellers looking to reassert themselves.

A week later, BTC has pulled back to $93,000 after failing to keep gains above $100,000 on Monday, CoinDesk data show.

The latest downturn comes at a time of increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, where long-term yields have extended the Q4 2024 rally to hit multi-month highs due to economic data pointing to stubborn inflation in the U.S.

It is not just nominal bond yields, the real or inflation-adjusted yields are creeping up too. The yield on the 10-year U.S. inflation-indexed security has jumped to 2.29%, the highest since November 2023, according to charting platform TradingView.

When the yield offered by fixed-income products starts to look more attractive in real terms, the incentive to invest in risk assets diminishes. It’s particularly true when the uptick in the yield is driven by hawkish Fed expectations rather than economic growth.

That’s precisely the case this week. With data pointing to sticky inflation, traders have pushed the timing of the next Fed rate cut to June.

«This morning’s slide in the spot bitcoin price appears to be in response to higher yields in the Treasury market and the reduced likelihood of further rate cuts this year. This has impacted the short-term market outlook for crypto assets, which tend to fare better in more liquid conditions, «Thomas Erdosi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.

Note that the yield spike is not just a U.S.-centric issue. Yields are spiking across the major economies with Japan and the U.K. joining the fray. The U.K. is experiencing its highest long-end yields since 1998.

All this is impacting stocks, similar to what’s happening with BTC. Major indices like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have also lost their New Year gains.

But here is a twist: Despite the macro uncertainties, BTC’s Deribit-listed options market remains optimistic, with the dollar value of active calls tallying $14.87 billion at press time, nearly twice the value of active puts, according to data source Amberdata.

A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market while a put buyer is bearish.

Moreover, the $120,000 strike call option remains the most popular, with a notional open interest of $1.47 billion. Calls at strikes $101,000 and $110,000 also boast an open interest of over $1 billion each. Meanwhile, the most popular put option at $75,000 has an open interest of $595 million.

Overall, calls expiring after January continue to trade at a notable premium to puts, reflecting a bullish bias.

«We could potentially see a change in market fortunes by the end of this month. The inauguration of President Trump on Jan. 20, heralding an increased likelihood of a much more favorable regulatory environment for crypto, could be a key driver in crypto market sentiment,» Erdosi added.

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FDIC Reverses U.S. Crypto Banking Policy That Demanded Prior Approvals

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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will no longer instruct banks to get prior sign-off before they engage in crypto activities — a standard that was set in 2022 and that effectively severed institutions from the digital assets sector as they waited for approvals that never came.

The FDIC, which is the chief federal supervisor of thousands of typically smaller banks and runs the banking industry’s government backstop, had occupied a significant role in the crypto debanking saga. A courtroom fight with crypto exchange Coinbase had recently unveiled dozens of letters between the regulator and banks it supervised. In that 2022 correspondence, the FDIC had instructed them to steer clear of new crypto matters while it hashed out policies, though the agency never developed any and left bankers hanging.

The new industry guidance issued on Friday comes after President Donald Trump elevated a crypto-friendly leadership at the FDIC and other financial regulators and has directed his administration to open doors for the industry.

“With today’s action, the FDIC is turning the page on the flawed approach of the past three years,” said FDIC Acting Chairman Travis Hill, in a statement. “I expect this to be one of several steps the FDIC will take to lay out a new approach for how banks can engage in crypto- and blockchain-related activities in accordance with safety and soundness standards.”

Read More: Trump’s FDIC Chief Rethinks Crypto Guidance as U.S. Senators Probe Debanking

Banks that were once expected to get pre-approvals on crypto matters can now forge ahead, as long as they’re appropriately considering the risks.

The guidance to seek pre-approvals was a common stance across all three U.S. banking agencies, including the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC also acted recently to rescind its similar 2022 guidance, which had emerged as the digital assets sector was beset by failure and high-profile fraud, and global exchange FTX was steering toward disaster.

Read More: OCC Says Banks Can Engage in Crypto Custody and Certain Stablecoin Activities

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CoreWeave Stock Debuts at $39 After Selling Shares for $40 A Piece

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Shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) opened at $39 apiece during the company’s debut on Nasdaq on Friday afternoon, just under its initial public offering which closed Thursday evening.

The cloud computing firm had sold roughly 37.5 million shares at $40 each, raising about $1.5 billion for its initial public offering (IPO), making it the largest tech offering since 2021. It had, however, initially planned to file the offering at $47 to $55 a share at a much higher valuation than it ultimately saw.

Nvidia, an early investor in the company, placed a $250 million order in the offering.

Some experts speculated that the stock’s debut wouldn’t see the success it had hoped for. Bloomberg Opinion US technology columnist Dave Lee, for example, pointed out the company’s large debt, reliance on just a few big customers and lack of diversity in revenue may be an issue.

“CoreWeave stands to be a bellwether for the AI industry as a whole — a must-watch stock as questions about return on investment grow ever louder,” Lee wrote in an op-ed on Friday. “Even the slightest indication of shakiness in the belief of AI sends investors into a tailspin.”

The current risk-off environment caused by the overall macro situation in the U.S., mainly due to recent tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which has caused a sell off in tech stocks, could also have weighed on CoreWeave’s IPO.

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Crypto Card Firm Baanx Partners With Circle for Rewards Wallet

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Baanx, a cryptocurrency debit card enabler for the likes of MetaMask and 1inch, has introduced a rewards wallet combining on-chain finance with traditional loyalty perks and discounts, using underlying technology from Circle, the provider of the USDC stablecoin.

Built on Circle’s programmable wallet tech, the Baanx platform allows crypto holders access to cashback, fee discounts, subscription perks and exclusive gated experiences, according to a press release.

An ongoing convergence between traditional card networks and the on-chain world of stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) has seen Mastercard partner with Web3 wallet MetaMask, and more recently reports of Visa in talks with Sam Altman’s World Network.

The rewards wallet offering helps bridge the gap between blockchain and everyday financial needs, said Baanx Chief Commercial Officer Simon Jones.

“We’ve built the Rewards Wallet using Circle to offer rewards on a crypto debit card that are unprecedented, and so incentivizing users to go down the route of non-custodial spend,” Jones said in an interview. “For instance, if you look at the MataMask card, it’s up to 6% cash-back for the first month.”

Circle, famous as the creator of the $60 billion stablecoin USDC, offers programmable wallet infrastructure that allows for adding features to multiple crypto projects without having to change the user interface, Jones said.

“We are pushing USDC as the main treasury token and incentive program within these products, as opposed to Tether [USDT],” he said.

Sanja Kon, VP of partnerships & business development, Europe at Circle said in a statement: “Circle Wallets provide a fantastic foundation for the Rewards Wallet. By integrating this technology, Baanx is bringing real-world value to crypto users in new and exciting ways.”

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