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Bitcoin Funding Rates Briefly Went Negative, Usually Marks a Local Bottom: Van Straten

Bitcoin (BTC) has not broken below $90,000 since Nov. 18, and continues to swing between $90,000 and $100,000.
The sentiment generally flips bullish when bitcoin approaches $100,000 and investors try to continue the bull market. However, this also works the other way and as bitcoin heads toward $90,000, like on Thursday, investors turn bearish.
Bitcoin will move where maximum pain occurs, so far that is the chopping period between these two valuations.
Derivatives in bitcoin play a large part in these volatile price swings; derivatives such as futures and options only make up a few percentage points of the overall market capitalization but are becoming a greater influence in the market.
One metric that traders keenly observe is the futures perpetual funding rate. This is defined as the average funding rate (in %) set by exchanges for perpetual futures contracts. When the rate is positive, long positions periodically pay short positions. Conversely, when the rate is negative, short positions periodically pay long positions.
During a bull market, bitcoin tends to have a positive funding rate as traders believe the price will continue to rise, but when the market gets overheated, it tends to run out of steam, and the price starts to fall, which leads to liquidation cascades.
However, the same is true for the bear market as price floors become developed over the years, prices can rebound quickly, leading traders to scramble to cover. In these moments, local bottoms are formed.
As of Thursday, Glassnode data shows that the funding rate briefly went ( -0.001%), the first time this year and only a few times since November. This lead to a leverage flush and a sentiment re-shift before bitcoin moved back above $94,000. To compare how mild the negative funding rate was on Thursday, during covid-19 in March 2020, we saw negative funding rates peak at (-0.309%).
A negative funding rate doesn’t always lead to immediate price rebounds or bottoms, but can be watched alongside other price-chart tools and technical indicators to form a market view. Negative funding rates could also signal a continued bear market rather than an immediate bottom. Similarly, positive rates during a bull market might not mean the market is overheated, but could reflect continued strong demand.
Since 2023, the funding rate has mostly been positive due to bitcoin being in a bull market, yet it has come with brief periods of negative rates, which tend to occur during price bottoms. This was seen during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023, and 2024, just before bitcoin climbed higher in both years.
A floor tends to emerge when the funding rate goes negative and bears become overconfident. The same occurs when bulls become complacent, and the spot price can no longer keep up with the leverage being used. On both occasions, traders tend to get liquidated, and in this instance, it was the bears.
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Chart of the Week: ’10x Money Multiplier’ for Bitcoin Could Take Wall Street by Storm

Adopting Michael Saylor’s strategy of buying for the balance sheet has clearly taken off among many publicly traded firms, substantially enriching their stock prices and shareholders.
But what does it mean for the future of the bitcoin price? NYDIG Research crunched the numbers, and the results are striking.
«If we apply a 10x «money multiplier»—a rule of thumb reflecting the historical impact of new capital on bitcoin’s market cap—and divide by the total supply of bitcoin, we arrive at a rough estimate of the potential price impact: a nearly $42,000 increase per bitcoin,» NYDIG said in a research report.
To reach this conclusion, the analysts at NYDIG reviewed Strategy (MSTR), Metaplanet (3350), Twenty One (CEP), and Semler Scientific’s (SMLR) cumulative equity valuation since they adopted the bitcoin buying strategy. This gave the analysts an outline of how much money they could theoretically raise by issuing shares at current stock prices to buy more bitcoin.
If this analysis comes true, the projected price is nearly a 44% increase from the current spot price of $96,000 per bitcoin. If capitalized, Wall Street money managers perhaps wouldn’t mind showing this PnL chart to their clients, especially given the current volatility and uncertainty in the market.
«The implication is clear: this ‘dry powder’ in the form of issuance capacity could have a significant upward effect on bitcoin’s price,» NYDIG Research said.
Bitcoin’s limited supply also bodes well for the analysis. Publicly-traded companies already hold 3.63% of bitcoin’s total supply, with the lion’s share of those coins being held by Strategy. Adding private company and government holdings, the total is at 7.48% according to BitcoinTreasuries data.
Demand could also grow further in the near future if the U.S. government finds “budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin” for its strategic bitcoin reserve.
Read more: Cantor Skyrockets 130% as Traders FOMO Into the Stock on Bitcoin SPAC Frenzy
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Gold-Backed Crypto Minting Volume Hits 3-Year High as Central Bank Buying Drops

The gold market is seeing a shift in activity, with central bank buying slowing and demand from exchange-traded funds and gold-backed cryptocurrencies growing. The latter recently moved to a three-year high, as measured by the net minting volume for tokens backed by the precious metal.
Over $80 million worth of these tokens were minted over the past month, according to data from rwa.xyz. That boost helped push the sector’s market cap up 6% to $1.43 billion. Meanwhile, monthly transfer volume rose 77% to $1.27 billion, marking a sharp resurgence of interest in digital representations of the precious metal.
The rise in token activity mirrors a broader trend in the gold market.
The World Gold Council’s latest report shows that total gold demand in the first quarter of the year reached 1,206 tonnes—a 1% year-over-year increase and the strongest first quarter since 2016. The surge came despite a slowdown in central bank purchases, which fell to 244 tonnes, down from 365 tonnes in the fourth quarter.
Gold ETFs played a central role in the shift. Investment demand has more than doubled to 552 tonnes, suggesting investors are moving into the precious metal, a move central banks are known for historically.
Those inflows helped push the average quarterly price of gold to a record $2,860 per ounce, up 38% from the previous year. Yet the price dipped 2.35% last week, after rising 23.5% year-to-date, while risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, rose. Spot gold is currently trading at $3,240.
While traditional gold demand, such as jewelry, saw a downturn—dropping to pandemic-era lows—bar and coin demand stayed elevated, especially in China.
Read more: Tokenized Gold Surges Above $2B Market Cap as Tariff Fears Spark Safe Haven Trade
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A Tiny Company Wants to Buy $20M TRUMP Token to Change U.S.-Mexico Trade Deals

Freight Technologies (FRGT), a $4.8 million market cap logistics tech firm focused on cross-border trade between the U.S. and Mexico, has entered an agreement to buy up to $20 million in the Official Trump Token (TRUMP) to build out its crypto treasury.
The company said it secured the funding through a convertible note facility with an institutional investor, with an initial $1 million tranche already committed. The capital will be used solely to acquire TRUMP tokens, making it one of the first publicly listed companies to do so.
The decision follows a separate investment in AI-linked FET tokens currently valued at $8 million, which the company says supports AI tools used across its logistics platforms.
Buying digital assets for publicly traded companies isn’t a new strategy.
Michael Saylor championed it with a bitcoin strategy, and others, such as Semler Scientific (SMLR), followed through. Most recently, Cantor (CEP) is making a splash with huge dry powder to do the same. Meanwhile, companies such as Sol Strategies (HODL) and Janover (JNVR) are buying up SOL tokens to give investors exposure to the cryptocurrency.
The trend is also picking up in Japan, where hotel firm Metaplanet has recently hit 5,000 BTC on its balance sheet and issued $25 million in bonds to fund additional purchases. Smaller firms, including Value Creation, Remixpoint, NEXON, Anap Holdings, and WEMADE are also accumulating the cryptocurrency.
However, Freight’s mandate is slightly different: to influence the U.S.-Mexico trade deal amid President Trump’s all-out trade war.
«We believe that the addition of the Official Trump tokens are an excellent way to diversify our crypto treasury, and also an effective way to advocate for fair, balanced, and free trade between Mexico and the US,» Javier Selgas, the company’s CEO, said in a press release on April 30.
While such a strategy could help a company such as Freight, influencing presidential decisions by buying a memecoin could bring up the question of conflict of interest. Just recently, Trump said he will hold a private dinner with top token holders, drawing outcry from Democratic lawmakers, who cited the president’s involvement with the token as potential grounds for impeachment.
On April 25, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) pointed to the crypto project offering its top holders an invitation to a dinner event with President Trump, calling it a clear case of selling access to the presidency.
For Freight, whose stock price plunged nearly 90% in the last 12 months and is heavily tied to cross-border trading, it seems this might be the best way to keep share prices afloat.
“At the heart of Fr8Tech’s mission is the promotion of productive and active commerce between the United States and Mexico. Mexico is the United States’ top goods trading partner, with Mexico being the leading destination for US exports and the top source for US imports,» Selgas added.
After announcing the move, Freight Technologies’ shares jumped over 111% before the closing bell on Friday. However, in after-hours trading, the stock plunged 21.6%.
Freight Technologies’ product lineup includes a suite of applications, ranging from cross-border freight booking to transportation management, all aimed at modernizing the flow of goods in North America.
Other companies have made investments in the crypto space linked to the U.S. President. Last month, DWF Labs invested $25 million in the decentralized finance protocol backed by Trump and his family, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), as it moved to establish a physical presence in the U.S.
The investment gives DWF Labs a governance stake in the project, which has been accumulating various cryptocurrencies and is set to soon launch a stablecoin backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bills and other cash equivalents, called USD1.
TRUMP tokens are trading at $12.7, up just 0.1% for the day and 42% in the last 30 days.
Read more: Why Trump’s Tariffs Could Actually be Good for Bitcoin
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