By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Crypto majors continue to trade in a choppy manner, with bitcoin (BTC) retreating to $113,600 after reaching $114,800 late Wednesday. Ether (ETH) and most major tokens also erased overnight gains as derivatives traders looked for downside protection ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Long-term sentiment for bitcoin, measured by an options market indicator, turned bearish for the first time since June 2023. Technical signals also point to a weakening short-term outlook.

In a notable move, an OG wallet sold 660 BTC and opened long positions in ether worth $295 million across four wallets, reflecting growing preference for ETH over bitcoin and echoing a trend seen in derivatives markets.

Heightened concerns over bitcoin’s decentralization emerged after popular X account «WhaleWire» revealed that two mining pools, Foundry USA and Antpool, now control over 50% of the network’s hashrate — the computing power validating transactions. This follows Qubic’s recent claim it was able to make a 51% attack on Monero and planned an attempt on Dogecoin.

Financial services platform Swan highlighted that market confidence was shaken by recent guidance from bitcoin holder Strategy, which said that it may issue equity to pay debt interest, fund preferred dividends or when deemed advantageous.

Swan urged investors to focus on Strategy’s $73 billion in BTC holdings and strong balance sheet, suggesting the company could cover dividend obligations for decades even if bitcoin’s price fell more than 50%. “Hardly the picture of imminent collapse,” Swan said on X.

Rapper Kanye West launched a memecoin called YZY, which skyrocketed to a $3 billion market cap within minutes before quickly dropping back below $1 billion. This rapid surge and fall contrast with previous celebrity tokens like TRUMP and MELANIA, which held their hype for a day or two before crashing, indicating a steep decline in appetite for speculative tokens.

In traditional markets, yield on Japanese government bonds continued to rise, increasing the risk of injecting volatility into global financial markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 21: Layer-1 blockchain Viction (VIC), formerly known as TomoChain, finalizes the Atlas hard fork upgrade on mainnet. The update launched on July 23. All node operators must complete the upgrade by Aug. 21 to ensure full network functionality.
• Macro
  • Aug. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases July producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 1.7%
  • Aug. 21, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 55.1
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49.8
    • Services PMI Est. 54.2 vs. Prev. 55.7
  • Day 1 of 3: The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and held annually in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, brings together global central bankers and policymakers to discuss key economic challenges and monetary policy.
  • Aug. 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q2 GDP growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. 0.6%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.8%
  • Aug. 22, 10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
  • Aug. 22, 5 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay announces its monetary policy decision.
    • Policy Rate Prev. 6%
  • Aug. 22, 8 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases Q2 GDP YoY growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 3.9%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
  • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
  • Aug. 21: Flux (FLUX) to host an X spaces event on «DePIN and more» at 15:00 UTC.
  • Aug. 21: Bio Protocol (BIO) to host a livestream exploring the first BioAgent Ignition Sales on Bio V2 at 17:00 UTC.
  • Aug. 22: Basic Attention Token (BAT) to host an X spaces event at 17:00 UTC.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 25: Venom (VENOM) to unlock 2.34% of its circulating supply worth $9.45 million.
  • Aug. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $26.36 million.
  • Sep. 1: Sui (SUI) to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 21: Aria.AI (ARIA) to list on Binance Alpha.
  • Aug. 21: Epic Chain (EPIC) to list on Coins.ph.
  • Aug. 21: Akedo (AKE) to list on KuCoin and LBank.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Day 5 of 5: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
• Day 4 of 4: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole)
• Day 1 of 2: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
• Aug. 25-26: WebX 2025 (Tokyo)
• Aug. 27: Blockchain Leaders Summit 2025 (Tokyo)
• Aug. 28-29: Bitcoin Asia 2025 (Hong Kong)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• YZY Money, a Solana memecoin tied to Ye (formerly Kanye West), debuted Thursday with a 6,800% surge in price before slipping under $1, indicative of the speculative churn around celebrity tokens.
• The token announcement on Ye’s X account sparked speculation of a hack before posting a video it which he appeared to confirm the launch. Questions remain whether the clip was AI-generated.
• The token structure mirrors the TRUMP coin: 70% supply allocated to Ye, 10% to liquidity, 20% for sale. Insiders said Ye initially demanded 80% before agreeing to 70%.
• Wallet data shows clear advance access. Wallet 6MNWV8 spent 450,611 USDC at $0.35, later selling some of its holding for $1.39 million to reap a $1.5 million profit when price gains on the remainder are included. Another whale bought $2.28 million worth and sits on $6 million in gains.
• Liquidity was seeded single-sided with only YZY, allowing developers or large holders to withdraw value at will — a design critics liken to the controversial LIBRA token in Argentina.
• Retail buyers absorbed the losses: One wallet lost nearly $500,000 within two hours after buying at $1.56 and exiting at $1.06.The episode highlights how insider-heavy allocations and liquidity gimmicks expose fans and traders, even as hype briefly drove the token’s market cap toward $3 billion.
• Wormhole challenged LayerZero’s $110 million bid for Stargate with plans for a higher counteroffer, asking the community to delay its governance vote for five days to complete due diligence and ensure token holders evaluate both proposals on fair terms.
• Stargate’s appeal lies in scale: $4 billion processed in July, $345 million locked, and a treasury with $92 million in stablecoins and ether plus $55 million in STG and other assets.
• LayerZero’s proposal would transfer treasury and future revenue to itself, which critics say undervalues Stargate and shortchanges token holders.
• Wormhole argues STG holders “deserve a more competitive process” and positions its bid as delivering greater long-term value.
• A merger would fuse Stargate’s unified liquidity pools with Wormhole’s integrations across dozens of blockchains, creating one of the largest cross-chain hubs.
• The Wormhole Foundation claims such a combination would “unlock unrealized value” and drive both immediate and lasting benefits for STG and Wormhole token holders.

Derivatives Positioning

• The growth in BTC and ETH futures open interest stalled at levels above 700K BTC and 14.2 million ETH, which is consistent with the directionless trading in spot prices before the start of the central bankers’ confab at Jackson Hole.
• Open interest in LINK futures remains near record highs, with the token price rising to nearly $27 on Wednesday, the most since January. Other top 10 tokens, excluding BNB, saw open interest fall in the past 24 hours.
• HYPE leads crypto majors with annualized funding rates exceeding 25%. That shows traders are increasingly seeking bullish exposure in the token.
• On CME, the recovery in the BTC futures noted on Wednesday has stalled, with the three-month premium receding to nearly 7%. Meanwhile, ether futures OI continues to grow and is nearing the 2 million ETH mark. These diverging trends point to a growing institutional preference for ether over bitcoin.
• On Deribit, the 180-day bitcoin options skew dipped to -0.42, indicating the strongest demand for put options, or downside insurance, since June 2023. Longer-dated ETH options continued to show a bias for calls.
• Flows over the OTC network Paradigm featured demand for BTC puts financed by selling calls and mixed activity in the ether options market.
• Volmex’s seven-day implied volatility indices for bitcoin and ether have remained steady at around 36% and 70%, respectively, indicating that the market does not anticipate a significant volatility spike from the Jackson Hole event.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.84% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $113,434.22 (24hrs: -0.4%)
• ETH is down 1.68% at $4,283.19 (24hrs: +1.23%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.44% at 4,019.84 (24hrs: +0.69%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bp at 2.93%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0074% (8.0548% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 98.22
• Gold futures are down 0.20% at $3,381.60
• Silver futures are down 0.13% at $37.72
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.65% at 42,610.17
• Hang Seng closed down 0.24% at 25,104.61
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,280.80
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.3% at 5,455.71
• DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 44,938.31
• S&P 500 closed down 0.24% at 6,395.78
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.67% at 21,172.86
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.2% at 27,878.76
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.41% at 2,648.47
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.4 bps at 4.31%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.11% at 6,406.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,315.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.26% at 44,880.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.5% (+0.2%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03772 (-0.58%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 946 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $55.47
• Total fees: 3.41 BTC / $388,249
• CME Futures Open Interest: 143,050 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 34.0 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.62%

Technical Analysis

• The daily chart for e-mini futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 show that the longer duration MACD (50,100,9) has turned negative for the first time since April. The negative crossover indicates a bullish-to-bearish shift in momentum.
• The RSI recently diverged bearishly as it produced a lower high last week, contradicting the new peak in prices. The indicator is on the verge of falling below 50 to suggest strengthening of the downside momentum.
• Together, the two indicators suggest more losses ahead for technology stocks.
• Cryptocurrencies are known to closely track movements in Nasdaq.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $344.37 (+2.32%), -0.69% at $342 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $304.39 (+0.77%), -0.55% at $302.73
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $137.81 (+1.91%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.51 (+1.72%), -1.51% at $24.14
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $62.89 (+5.68%), -1.57% at $61.90
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.45 (+1.85%), -1.49% at $15.22
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.52 (+4.68%), -1.28% at $12.36
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.08 (-1.88%), -1.99% at $13.80
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.49 (+1.39%), -1.05% at $9.39
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $27.27 (+2.52%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.21 (-2.12%), unchanged in pre-market
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.45 (-6.09%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.47 (+5.93%), -1.95% at $19.09

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$315.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $53.99 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$240.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.82 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows two mining pools, Foundry USA and Antpool, account for nearly 50% of the computing power dedicated to the Bitcoin blockchain.
• The concentration of hashrate has raised concerns about centralization on social media.

While You Were Sleeping

• Talk of Boots on the Ground in Ukraine Sparks Unease in Germany (Reuters): German Chancellor Merz kept the option of sending troops to Ukraine open, but the country’s history, past overseas setbacks, economic strain and fears of military overextension make it a politically fraught move.
• Key Bitcoin Indicators Hint at Bearish Regime Shift as Jackson Hole Nears (CoinDesk): Options markets show stronger demand for downside protection, while bitcoin has slipped beneath key trend levels, pointing to weakening sentiment despite only a modest price pullback.
• Canada Cultivates Nordic Connections to Offset Its Reliance on U.S. Trade (Financial Times): Canada is boosting defense and trade ties with Finland and Sweden, including icebreakers and fighter jets, to lessen reliance on the U.S. following Trump’s annexation and tariff threats.
• DBS Launches Tokenized Structured Notes on Ethereum, Expanding Investor Access (CoinDesk): The Singapore-based bank is breaking down $100,000 structured notes into $1,000 tokenized units on Ethereum, making them tradable for accredited and institutional investors via Singapore exchanges ADDX, DigiFT and HydraX.
• Windtree’s BNB Treasury Bet Collides With Nasdaq Delisting Order (CoinDesk): Windtree’s sub-$1 share price forced a Nasdaq delisting, leaving its $200 million BNB treasury plan in limbo as it scrambles to shift trading to over-the-counter markets under its existing «WINT» ticker.
• Trump Orders Pentagon to Deploy Three Warships Against Latin American Drug Cartels (The Wall Street Journal): The Navy’s guided-missile destroyers will be tasked with intercepting drug shipments off South America’s coast, including near Venezuela, marking a shift from their usual supporting role to the Coast Guard.

In the Ether