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Bitcoin Falls Below $104K as Retail Investor Sentiment Returns to Liberation Day Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) BTC continues to struggle for direction amid mounting macroeconomic pressures and a notable deterioration in retail investor sentiment. The asset is hovering near $103,700 following a volatile 24-hour stretch, in which it briefly dropped below $103,400 before staging a modest recovery, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model. This price behavior reflects an uneasy market backdrop, shaped by both geopolitical tensions and uncertain monetary policy.
According to an X post by crypto analytics firm Santiment on Thursday, sentiment among retail investors has turned sharply negative. The firm reported that the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary has fallen to just 1.03 to 1 — the lowest since early April, when the President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, triggering peak market fear at the time.
Santiment emphasized that this current wave of retail pessimism is unusually intense and, based on past patterns, may mark a contrarian signal for a price rebound. They specifically noted that back in April, Bitcoin rallied shortly after similar fear levels surfaced, suggesting large investors often use periods of retail capitulation to accumulate at favorable prices.
Adding to the pressure is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, which has kept btcoin trading in a relatively tight $100,000 to $110,000 range over the past month. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show declining open interest on Binance, pointing to continued deleveraging among derivatives traders. At the same time, whale wallets have shown steady accumulation since 2023 — an indication that large holders are continuing to build their positions despite the short-term uncertainty.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- BTC-USD traded in a 24-hour range between $106,552.98 and $102,411.01, a 3.89% swing as volatility spiked midday.
- A sharp drop occurred between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC, pushing price below $104,000 and forming strong resistance near $106,000 on above-average volume.
- Support emerged between $103,000 and $103,500, where price consolidated on declining volume during the final eight hours of the analysis period.
- A V-shaped rebound developed late in the session, with BTC rising from $103,363 to $103,618 and establishing a local floor near $103,500.
- Short-term momentum indicators showed mild recovery as the session closed near intraday highs, but follow-through remained limited.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.
June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.
COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.
The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.
Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.
The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.
Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.
Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.
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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.
Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.
The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.
Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.
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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.
One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.
On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.
XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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