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Bitcoin Eyes Record High Above $109K as U.S Reaches Trade Deal with China, Inflation Data Looms

Bitcoin BTC could soon hit record price highs, triggering accelerated gains in the wider altcoin market, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions may see markets react positively to a potential slowdown in the April CPI due this week.
The United States has reached a trade agreement with China after two days of high-level negotiations in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday. Both countries are set to issue a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks later Monday.
The trade deal comes after weeks of a tit-for-tat trade war that saw both countries raise import tariffs above 100%, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. As such, the positive March U.S. consumer price inflation data released last month was largely dismissed by investors and analysts as a lagging metric that didn’t accurately reflect the escalating trade tensions.
The bears, however, cannot make that argument anymore, thanks to the trade deal.
So, a continued softening of CPI could raise Fed rate cut bets, providing a bullish catalyst for a BTC rally to record highs above $110,000. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI could be dismissed as backwards-looking, reflecting the April tariffs and not accounting for the de-escalation in trade tensions.
The CPI due Tuesday is expected to show the cost of living eased to 2.3% year-on-year in April from March’s 2.4%, according to RBC. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have stayed at 2.8% year-over-year in April, with continued moderation in rent inflation.
According to 10x Research, consensus is that the headline CPI likely held unchanged at 2.4% in April.
«If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs headline, this week’s week’s inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst,» Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk.
«CPI could be bullish, and may bring new all-time highs,» Thielen added.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands at around $104,000, just 5.1% short of hitting new highs above $109,350, CoinDesk data show.
BTC has had a near V-shaped recovery from $75,000 since early April, with prices surging 10% last week due to continued inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has registered net inflows for 20 straight trading days, amassing over $5 billion in investor money, according to SoSoValue data. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while reiterating the data-dependent stance on potential rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell, however, offered dovish hints, saying «the underlying inflation picture is good,» while calling the inflationary impact of tariffs short-lived.
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, the best performance since December 2020, according to TradingView. Other major altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, ADA and SOL surged 9.7%, 56%, 19% and 20%, respectively.
According to HTX Research, there are no signs of speculative frenzy yet, meaning the rally could continue.
«Implied volatility (IV) in bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable,» HTX Research said.
«As long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger,» HTX added.
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Trump’s CFTC Pick Says U.S. Can Boost Crypto Innovation and Shield Consumers

President Donald Trump’s pick to be chairman of the U.S. commodities watchdog, Brian Quintenz, fielded crypto questions more than any other topic at his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday, and he assured the lawmakers that the agency can walk a middle ground between unhampered innovation and robust consumer safeguards.
Even as Quintenz awaits the Senate Agriculture Committee’s vote on whether to advance his nomination as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress is working on market structure legislation that could elevate that agency as the marquee regulator of U.S. crypto activity. Quintenz, a former CFTC commissioner, is no stranger to that sector, having served as venture capital firm a16z’s head of policy.
«I have always viewed market structure legislation as an opportunity to be both pro-customer protection and pro-innovation at the same time,» he told the senators weighing his nomination, which ultimately needs to be approved by the overall Senate before he can take over the commission. He said the bill could «provide the clarity to buildings, entrepreneurs, innovators to develop products» while also ensuring the regulated firms are appropriately protecting the users of those products.
«Congress should create an appropriate market regulatory regime to ensure that this technology’s full promise can be realized, and I am fully prepared to use my experience and expertise to assist in that effort as well in executing any expanded mission should legislation pass into law,» Quintenz said, adding that he’s willing to work under the CFTC’s current powers «to provide clarity of how the agency’s statutory objectives could be successfully leveraged through this technology.»
Quintenz would join a commission that’s being abandoned by commissioners. By statute, the CFTC has five members — with three from the party in power — but the members have left or are in the process of leaving, including Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, who said she’s leaving when Quintenz starts work. The lone Democrat, Kristen Johnson, said she’ll depart «later this year,» leaving some uncertainty about her timing. So Quintenz may serve opposite a single Democrat before eventually working alone for a time, leaving potential legal vulnerability for any unilateral policies.
Some of the Democratic senators noted the Trump administration has been systematically stripping regulatory commissions of their Democratic members — described by Senator Raphael Warnock as «political purges» — and asked Quintenz if he would encourage the White House to fill both sides of the roster.
«The president is the head of the executive, and the president will make his own decisions. Quintenz said. He later added, «I don’t tell the president what to do.»
He granted that the agency may need more funding if it’s assigned the monumental new task as the regulator of digital commodities spot markets, which would include transactions of bitcoin BTC. Quintenz said that new staff would be made more efficient by «a technology-first approach» that makes the employees more efficient.
Quintenz also fielded a number of questions on the prediction markets, another area he’s had direct experience with as a board member of Kalshi, which fought a legal battle with the CFTC over the regulation of event contracts. He defended such event contracts as an appropriate «hedging tool.»
«I believe the Commodity Exchange Act is very clear about the purpose of derivatives markets, the purpose of risk management and price discovery, and that events [contracts] can serve a function in that mandate,» he said.
Read More: Trump to Tap Former CFTC Commissioner, a16z Policy Head Brian Quintenz for CFTC Head
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Bitcoin Rises to $110K as Altcoins Rally; Traders Skeptical of Breakout

Bitcoin recaptured the $110,000 level for the second consecutive day, perhaps dragged higher by even larger gains among altcoins.
Up 0.9% more than 1% in the last 24 hours, bitcoin was trading just above $110,000 shortly after the close of U.S. stock markets Tuesday. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, exchange coins and memecoins — has risen 3.3% in the same period of time, mostly thanks to ether ETH, solana SOL, chainlink LINK all gaining 5%-7%.
The standout performances, however, were put on by uniswap UNI and aave AAVE, which soared a whooping 24% and 13%, respectively. The move was prompted by optimistic comments on the topic of DeFi by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins on Monday.
Things have remained relatively calm on the equities front, with most crypto stocks flat on the day. A notable exception is Semler Scientific (SMLR), a firm that aims to follow Strategy’s (MSTR) playbook and vacuum up as much bitcoin as possible. Shares fell another 10% today, with the stock now trading for less than the value of the bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Despite the day’s gains, positioning across crypto markets still reflects a largely defensive tone.
«Funding rates and other leverage proxies point toward a steadily cautious sentiment in the market,” Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, pointed out in a Tuesday report. «The broad risk appetite is remarkably weak, given that BTC is trading close to former all-time highs.»
Binance’s BTC perpetual swaps posted negative funding rates on multiple days last week, with the average annualized funding rate now sitting at just 1.3% — a level typically associated with local market bottoms rather than tops, Lunde noted.
«Bitcoin does not usually peak in environments with negative funding rates,» he wrote, adding that past instances of such positioning have more often preceded rallies than corrections.
Flows into leveraged bitcoin ETFs paint a similar picture. The ProShares 2x Bitcoin ETF (BITX) currently holds exposure equivalent to 52,435 BTC — well below its December 2023 peak of 76,755 BTC — and inflows remain muted. This defensive positioning, according to Lunde, leaves room for a potential «healthy rally» in BTC to develop.
Still, not all market watchers are convinced that the current price action marks the start of a sustainable breakout.
«Is this a true breakout that will continue? In my view, probably not,» said Kirill Kretov, senior automation expert at CoinPanel. «More likely, it’s part of the same volatility cycle where we see a rally now, followed by a sharp drop triggered by a negative announcement or some other narrative shift.»
According to Kretov, the current environment favors experienced traders who can navigate volatility-driven market structure. Technically, he sees BTC’s next key support levels at $105,000 and $100,000 — zones that could be tested if selling pressure returns.
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Aptos’ APT Rallies 4% Following Bullish Breakout on High Volume

Aptos’ APT token surged more than 4% following a bullish breakout, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The token smashed through resistance at the $5 level and is currently 4.2% higher, trading around $5.065.
Despite facing a 19% monthly decline and competition from emerging blockchain platforms, APT’s recent price action suggests potential accumulation before its next significant move, according to the model.
The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk 20 was 3% higher at publication time.
Technical Analysis:
- APT established strong support at 4.927 after breaking through the 5.00 psychological resistance level.
- High-volume rally created a new resistance zone around 5.138, with subsequent consolidation forming a bull flag pattern between 5.00-5.10.
- Price action showed APT breaking through the 5.090 resistance on substantial volume exceeding 149,000 units.
- A pullback formed a higher low at 5.045, establishing a new support zone.
- Final 15 minutes showed price consolidation in the 5.045-5.062 range, suggesting potential accumulation.
- Total price range represented 0.261 (5.4%) from low to high during the analyzed period.
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