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Bitcoin, Ether ETF Flows Hint at Incoming Altcoin Bull Run: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

2 недели ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As August draws to a close, two observations stand out. First, the month’s typical surge in volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets has not materialized.

That’s probably driven by market expectations of forthcoming Fed interest-rate cuts combined with record fiscal spending—essentially an amplified “Goldilocks” scenario. Yet, it raises the question: How much stimulus is too much?

Second, institutional flows reveal a divergence between bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH). The U.S. ether ETFs have registered a net investment of $3.69 billion this month, extending the four-month inflows streak. Bitcoin ETFs, in contrast, have seen an outflow of over $800 million, the second-highest on record. The difference is a sign of investor rotation into ether from its larger rival and possibly a bull run in altcoins ahead.

That brings us to the key trend to watch out for in the coming month: the boom in altcoin treasury companies.

«The rise of altcoin treasuries can be the decisive spark that ignites the final phase of the current market cycle and ushers in another wave of the altseason,» said Ray Yossef, a crypto market analyst and founder of crypto app NoOnes.

Big names like BitMine, SharpLink, Galaxy Capital, Pantera and even corporations like Trump Media have begun focusing on blue-chip altcoins like ETH, SOL, BNB, and CRO as treasury-grade reserve assets, Yossef said in an email.

«Billions of dollars are being allocated and reallocated into these treasuries, and that institutional vote of confidence is boosting the perception of altcoins, signaling that institutional capital is no longer reserved exclusively for BTC,» he said.

In his latest article, Arthur Hayes, CIO and co-founder of Maelstrom Fund, predicted that ENA, ETHFI, and HYPE will rally 51x, 34x, and 126x, respectively, by 2028.

Over the next 24 hours, BTC traders should keep an eye on $113,600, as this level may experience an increase in selling pressure from short-term traders who reach their breakeven. The market focus seems to be on smaller altcoins. The CoinDesk 80 Index was recently up over 4% on a 24-hour basis while the CoinDesk 20 Index added just 0.82%.

In key news, Bybit announced the addition of Volmex’s bitcoin and ether implied volatility indices to its Advanced Earn Page, a hub for high-yield structured products. The move underscores the growing demand for volatility trading.

In traditional markets, bond yield curves continue to steepen across the advanced world, with longer-duration yields rising to multi-month/decade highs. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • Aug. 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.7%
    • Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (2nd Estimate) Q2 GDP data.
      • Core PCE Prices QoQ st. 2.6% vs. Prev. 3.5%
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. -0.5%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
      • GDP Sales QoQEst. 6.3% vs. Prev. -3.1%
      • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 3.7%
      • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.5%
    • Aug. 28, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Statistics Institute releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.3%
    • Aug. 28, 6:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak on “Payments” at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla. Watch live.
    • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases Q2 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate Annualized Est. -0.6% vs. Prev. 2.2%
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.5%
    • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases July consumer income and expenditure data.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.6%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Aug. 29, 11 a.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases July unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 8.9% vs. Prev. 8.6%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Aug. 28: PointPay (PXP) to host ask me anything with CEO Vladimir Kardapoltsev on YouTube.
    • Aug. 28: Alchemy Pay (ACH) to host community ask me anything at 8 a.m.
    • Aug. 28: Kaia (KAIA) to host community town hall on the USDT campaign, Hackathon, and Web3 adoption at 9 a.m.
    • Aug. 28: The Sandbox (SAND) to host town hall to «dive into everything audio,» at 11 a.m.
    • Aug. 28: Moonwell (WELL) to host governance call at 1 p.m.
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $26.36 million.
    • Sep. 1: Sui (SUI) to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
    • Sep. 2: Ethena (ENA) to release 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $25.64 million.
    • Sep. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 28: Mantle (MNT) to list on Bitfinex.
    • Aug. 28: Nobody Sausage (NOBODY) to list on Binance.US.
    • Aug. 28: Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) to list on Bistamp.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration through Sept. 1.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • YZY, the Solana-based memecoin linked to Ye (Kanye West), left more than 70,000 wallets in losses after its chaotic debut, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
  • The token was pitched as part of a broader “YZY Money” ecosystem, including payment rails and a branded card, but structural flaws in supply distribution and liquidity design quickly tilted risk the toward retail.
  • Over 51,800 addresses apparently lost $1–$1,000, 5,269 wallets lost $1,000–$10,000 and 1,025 wallets lost $10,000–$100,000, Bubblemaps said. Three traders lost more than $1 million each and 108 wallets booked six-figure losses.
  • On the flip side, just 11 wallets made $1 million or more, 99 wallets booked $100,000+, and about 2,541 cleared at least $1,000 in profit — meaning less than 0.1% of traders captured meaningful upside.
  • The crowd overall is down $8.2 million, despite insiders pocketing millions. Bubblemaps’ data shows profits were brutally concentrated, with the top 11 winners capturing nearly all meaningful gains.
  • Structural flaws were evident: 70% of supply was reserved for Yeezy Investments LLC, 20% sold to the public, and 10% used for liquidity. The pool was seeded only with YZY tokens, not paired with stablecoins, leaving it vulnerable to liquidity drains — similar to the LIBRA token collapse in Argentina..
  • The outcome mirrors many celebrity-based memecoins, which are marketed as fan engagement tools, but often appear to be structured to funnel gains to those in the know while leaving retail buyers holding the bag.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC’s rise in price from Tuesday is characterized by a drop in open interest (OI) in USDT- and dollar-denominated perpetual futures across major exchanges, including Bybit, Binance, OKX, Deribit and Hyperliquid, and low spot market volumes. (Check the Chart of the Day). The same is true for ether.
  • The divergence between the price performance and trends in OI and volumes, raises a question about the sustainability of the gains.
  • In the past 24 hours, SOL, DOGE and ADA have registered an increase in futures OI, while the other major cryptocurrencies have seen capital outflows. Funding rates (calculated on an 8-hour basis) for most majors have receded to near zero, indicating a neutral sentiment.
  • On the CME, BTC futures OI remains well below December highs while the annualized three-month basis remains under 10%. However, options OI has increased to 42.89K BTC, the highest since May 29.
  • In ETH’s case, the CME futures OI has risen to a record 2.2 million ETH, signaling robust institutional participation.
  • On Deribit, BTC put options continue to trade at a higher premium than calls across all tenors, indicating a bearish regime shift. BTC’s implied volatility (IV) term structure remains upward-sloping with September expiry options trading at mid-to-high 30 IVs.
  • In ETH’s case, the call bias has notably weakened since early this week.
  • Block flows on OTC network Paradigm featured butterfly option strategies in BTC and an outright purchase of the Aug. 30 expiry ether call at the $5,000 strike.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.45% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $112,929.44(24hrs: +1.78%)
  • ETH is down 0.12% at $4,589.62.94 (24hrs: +0.31%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 4,168.55 (24hrs: +0.83%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 3 bps at 2.9%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.008% (8.7688% annualized) on Binance

CD20, Aug. 28 2025 (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is down 0.16% at 98.08
  • Gold futures are up 0.18% at $3,454.80
  • Silver futures are up 0.72% at $38.99
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.73% at 42,828.79
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.81% at 24,998.82
  • FTSE is down 0.36% at 9,221.86
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% at 5,407.94
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.32% at 45,565.23
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.24% at 6,481.40
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.21% at 21,590.14
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.33% at 28,433.00
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.96% at 2,741.35
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.8 bps at 4.23%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,499.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,623.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.19% at 45,729.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.26% (-0.06%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.04062 (0.26%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 969 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $55.16
  • Total fees: 3.65 BTC / $407,212
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 138,700 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 33.2 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.45%

Technical Analysis

BTC's hourly price action in candlestick format. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • BTC’s price is looking to establish a foothold above the upper end of the falling channel that marks the pullback from record highs.
  • A convincing breakout would mean that the temporary bull breather has ended, opening the doors for a renewed rally to $120,000 and higher.
  • The 50-, 100- and 200-hour simple moving averages are bottoming out as well in a sign of potential price gains ahead.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $308.97 (+0.16%), +0.63% at $310.92 in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $127.4 (-1.28%), +0.58% at $128.14
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.41 (-1.25%), +1.27% at $24.72
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $63.98 (-3.18%), -0.14% at $63.89
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.85 (+0.06%), +1.14% at $16.03
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.55 (-1.02%), +1.03% at $13.69
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.2 (+1.14%), +0.92% at $14.33
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-1.03%), +1.67% at $9.74
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.31 (-0.27%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.25 (+1%), +2.68% at $27.98

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $342.06 (-2.65%), +1.21% at $346.21 in pre-market
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.56 (-0.75%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.27 (-3.26%), +1.19% at $19.50
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $8.22 (-3.92%), +6.45% at $8.75
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $5.16 (-2.27%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $81.4 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.16 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $307.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.65 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.53 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

BTC's spot price vs. perp futures OI and spot volume. (Velo)

  • BTC’s price recovery is marked by a decline in open interest in USD- and USDT-denominated perpetual futures on major exchanges.
  • Furthermore, the spot volume has stayed low throughout the recovery.
  • The divergence indicates low participation of both derivatives and spot traders in the price recovery.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

(Smarter Web Company/X)(Ali/X)(venturefounder/X)(Andre Dragosch/X)(David Wurtz/X)

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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

Published

4 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

Published

4 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

Published

5 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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