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Bitcoin Data Indicates Ripe Buying Period as BTC Nears $95K

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Economic data and general profit-taking may have dented an early bitcoin (BTC) rally, but data tracking investor behavior indicates buying current price levels could benefit those looking for an entry into BTC markets.

Onchain data shows bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has crept up to 0.987 as of Friday, suggesting that investors who have held bitcoin for less than six months are selling at a loss. Historically, this scenario has often preceded price recoveries, indicating a potential buying opportunity.

Other well-followed cycle indicators, such as Market Value to Realized Value and the Puell Multiple, and a short-term investor ratio of 60% point to the market not having reached its peak, and this week’s correction does not appear to signify the end of the bullish cycle, per CryptoQuant contributing analyst Mac_D.

“As short-term investors experience more pain, it often presents better opportunities for accumulation,” MAC_D said in a Thursday post. “If there is further decline from the current price, smart investors will likely accumulate the coins sold cheaply by short-term investors. Therefore, selling coins at this juncture might prove to be a very unwise decision.”

SOPR measures the profit or loss of spent bitcoin outputs by comparing the value of coins when they were last moved to their value when they are spent again. The short-term SOPR focuses on coins moved within a relatively short timeframe (less than 155 days), and can indicate market sentiment, where a value less than 1 might suggest capitulation or a market bottom, potentially signaling a good time to buy.

MVRV compares Bitcoin’s total market cap (market value) to the «realized cap,» which values each Bitcoin at the price at which it last moved. It is used to gauge whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold, helping to predict potential market tops or bottoms.

BTC neared $95,000 in European morning hours Friday after a slump in U.S. hours sent it to near $90,000 late Thursday, down 10% from a weekly high above $120,000.

Fresh economic data sent U.S. treasury yields soaring on Thursday, leading to a fall in equities and a concurrent drop in risk assets such as bitcoin. The latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report on U.S. service providers was stronger than anticipated, with the prices-paid measure reaching its highest point since early 2023.

Traders are eying the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) later Friday before further positioning, as CoinDesk reported. Strong NFP numbers indicate a robust economy, hinting at possible interest rate hikes, which tends to be bad for risk assets such as bitcoin.

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DOGE, XRP, SOL Show Price Bottoming as Bitcoin Traders Remain Optimistic

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Market watchers say that major tokens are showing signs of bottoming out, even as geopolitical tensions and tariff fears continue to cloud the near-term outlook.

Bitcoin BTC hovered around $105,000 in Asian morning hours Monday, slightly changed in the past 24 hours but down 5% over the past week.

Ether ETH, XRP XRP, Solana’s SOL SOL, Cardano’s ADA ADA and dogecoin DOGE showed similar price action in the past 24 hours, with signs of a local bottom near support levels for all these tokens, indicating a potential rebound for intraday traders.

“Bitcoin hovers around $105K as investors remain uncertain about short-term macroeconomic events,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research. “Uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, and the US economy slowed bullish trends in crypto, while geopolitical risks have also pushed investors to pull some capital from assets.

“We remain optimistic over the long-term outlook for the crypto industry, with more institutions and users onboarding every day,” Ruck added.

Trade tensions continue to weigh on risk sentiment. China said Monday that the U.S. had introduced new discriminatory restrictions on AI chip exports and software sales, and vowed to take measures to defend its interests.That backdrop has traders on edge.

“Events over the last weekend showed just how quickly cryptocurrencies could react from even a slight escalation in trade war hostilities,” said Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, in a Telegram message to CoinDesk.

Mei said traders should monitor announcements from both China and the US, as well as a potential escalation in Russia-Ukraine hostilities and several key US economic data releases this week, including the US trade deficit, unemployment numbers, and remarks from various Fed officials.

“Currently macro developments are driving the majority of market movements so it’s difficult to predict, but we do see large institutions continuing to build up their crypto exposure so that’s a positive sign,” Mei added.

Meanwhile, investors have been diversifying into tokens like XRP and SOL, even as Bitcoin’s price action has become more aligned with traditional risk assets, which some say adds to the long-term optimism.

Kathy Qu, research manager at HashKey Cloud, told CoinDesk on Monday that “trade policy uncertainty drives capital into high-growth tech stocks, but savvy investors are also diversifying further into crypto, particularly TradFi-friendly assets like Bitcoin and XRP, where ETF optimism grows.”

She added that staking and DeFi remain bright spots in the market, with real-world asset tokens seeing strong momentum and Ethereum ETFs poised to benefit from the SEC’s staking exemption — a move that’s expected to encourage more institutional participation in the DeFi sector.

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Elon Musk Announces ‘Bitcoin-Style’ XChat, But Tech Experts Are Skeptical

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Tech billionaire Elon Musk, the boss of X (formerly Twitter), Tesla, and SpaceX, announced on Sunday the launch of a brand-new messaging app called XChat. Neither the BTC market nor the tech community is impressed.

One of the key features of the new offering is that it’s built on a programming language called Rust with Bitcoin-style encryption. While it sounds exciting, the crypto community is not particularly psyched, raising doubts about what exactly it means.

«Bitcoin primarily uses signatures, not encryption. This is like saying, we decided to run our rocket on water, since NASA uses Hydrogen and Oxygen,» Ian Miers, Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Maryland, said on X.

Encryption refers to the process of scrambling data so that only authorised parties with the correct keys can unscramble and read it. However, transactions executed on the Bitcoin blockchain aren’t encrypted but are signed. In fact, all data shared between Bitcoin nodes is unencrypted, allowing total strangers to interact with the network.

«Needless to say «Bitcoin style» and «Rust» are not descriptions of an encryption scheme, nor are they strong indicators of security for a messaging app. Also, unless encrypted DMs are only in app, odds are they aren’t just in Rust,» Miers said.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded flat near $105,000, having dropped over 3% last week, according to CoinDesk data.

Other key features of the new offering include end-to-end encryption, disappearing messages, and the ability to send any type of file, including audio and video files, without a phone number across all platforms.

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Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Stalls at 105K as Analyst Says Market Looks ‘Overheated’

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin BTC is trading above $105K as Asia begins its business week. The world’s largest digital asset remained relatively stable over the weekend, with a 0.4% movement, and trading volume was compressed.

While overall market conditions remain bullish, a new report from CryptoQuant suggests that certain metrics indicate the BTC market is “overheating.”

The report shows bitcoin demand has climbed to 229,000 BTC over the past 30 days, approaching the December 2024 peak of 279,000 BTC. At the same time, whale-held balances have risen by 2.8 percent, a pace that often signals slowing accumulation.

These indicators suggest the current rally, which pushed prices to a record $112,000, may be nearing a short-term top.

The report highlights $120,000 as the next major resistance level, tied to the upper band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, where unrealized profits would hit 40 percent, a threshold that has historically marked local tops.

While CryptoQuant’s «Bull Score Index» remains strong at 80, signaling continued bullish momentum, rising profit margins, and peaking demand growth suggest traders may face a period of consolidation before the next leg higher.

(CoinDesk)

News Roundup:

James Wynn Gets Liquidated, But Says He’ll ‘Run it All Back’

James Wynn, a trader renowned for his aggressive, high-leverage bets on Hyperliquid, has been fully liquidated, leaving him with just $23 in his account after sustaining losses totaling more than $17 million, CoinDesk previously reported.

Wynn, who attracted significant attention with trades involving bitcoin, memecoins like PEPE, and even obscure tokens such as FARTCOIN, first faced steep declines from a massive $1.25 billion long position on BTC, resulting in a loss exceeding $37 million after prices dipped below $105,000 amid geopolitical turmoil.

Throughout the volatile month, Wynn rapidly cycled through trades, briefly netting an unrealized gain of $85 million before market swings wiped him out completely. An account associated with Wynn downplayed the dramatic liquidation, defiantly stating on X: «I’ll run it back, I always do. And I’ll enjoy doing it. I like playing the game. I took a large and calculated bet at making billions.»

Brazil’s Méliuz Shares Sink 8% After Announcing $78M Equity Raise to Buy Bitcoin

Brazilian fintech Méliuz plans to raise up to $78 million through a public equity offering, intending to allocate all proceeds to purchasing Bitcoin and positioning the cryptocurrency as a primary strategic asset in its treasury, CoinDesk previously reported.

However, Méliuz’s strategy hasn’t impressed the market yet, as shares dropped more than 8% following the announcement. The initial offering includes 17 million common shares, with the potential to expand up to 51 million, and investors will receive subscription warrants allowing future stock purchases at set prices.

Known for its cashback and financial services platform serving over 30 million users, Méliuz currently holds 320.2 BTC, having previously committed 10% of its cash reserves to Bitcoin in March. Trading for the subscription warrants is expected to commence on June 16, with share settlement and warrant issuance finalized by June 18.

NYC Comptroller Rejects Mayor Adams’ ‘BitBond’, Warns Deviating from Dollar Could Undermine City’s Credit Reputation

New York City’s Comptroller Brad Lander sharply criticized Mayor Eric Adams’ plan to issue municipal bonds backed by bitcoin, labeling the proposed «BitBond» as «legally dubious and fiscally irresponsible,» CoinDesk previously reported.

Lander rejected the idea just days after Adams introduced it at a bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, emphasizing that cryptocurrency’s instability makes it unsuitable to reliably fund critical city projects such as infrastructure and affordable housing.

Mayor Adams has actively promoted cryptocurrency initiatives since entering office, including converting his own paychecks into digital assets and establishing a digital asset advisory council.

However, Comptroller Lander highlighted serious practical concerns with the BitBond proposal, noting federal tax laws and city financial regulations would make the proposal unworkable, and warned that deviating from the dollar-based municipal borrowing system could undermine investor confidence and New York City’s credit reputation.

Market Movements:

  • BTC: Bitcoin showed resilience, staging a V-shaped recovery between $103,813.37 and $105,305.75 amid notable volume spikes.
  • ETH: Ethereum formed a bullish reversal pattern, rebounding from strong support at $2,472.84 to $2,527.53 amid high-volume buying momentum, according to CoinDesk’s Market Insight Bot.
  • Gold: Gold climbed 0.6% to $3,311.66, as traders weighed its recent retreat from record highs against ongoing investor and central bank appetite driven by uncertainty over US tariffs and broader economic risks.
  • Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.89% as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed following Trump’s announcement of increased steel tariffs.
  • S&P 500 Futures: Stock futures dipped Sunday to start June after the S&P 500’s strongest month since November 2023, amid uncertainty over President Trump’s tariffs following recent contradictory court rulings.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

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