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Bitcoin Could Hit as High as $124k Before Year-End, Says ARK Invest Analyst

Bitcoin (<a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin?_gl=1*16vsd1c*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTA1ODY0MTAzMy4xNzMyODIwOTk0*_ga_VM3STRYVN8*MTczMjgyMDk5NC4xLjAuMTczMjgyMDk5NC4wLjAuMTk0NjQyMDA3Ng..» target=»_blank»>BTC</a>) has slumped back to $95,000 after coming within a few hundred dollars of passing the symbolic $100,000 price level. But the largest cryptocurrency is only catching its breath before surging to newer heights, according to investment management firm ARK Invest.
“We’re more or less anticipating $104,000 to $124,000 price targets by end of year,” David Puell, one of the firm’s research associates, told CoinDesk in an interview. “With the caveat that it’s not a recommendation, but so far, price action has kept up to that projection quite nicely.”
Puell’s calculus is based on bitcoin’s seasonality — a term referring to the ways the asset has behaved in various stages of previous bull markets — as well as on-chain metrics. In Puell’s view, cycles are very much still at play until any strong evidence of the contrary, meaning that he eventually expects a top to form and for bitcoin to experience another serious pullback like in 2022.
“I would classify the current market environment as a sort of middle of the bull,” Puell said. “If you’re measuring bottom to top, I would say we’re at about 55% to 65% of the way there.” That currently places the bitcoin cycle top at roughly $126,000 to $134,000 according to on-chain metrics, he said, though these price targets could move higher “if the market accelerates to the upside.”
That would lend to the theory that bitcoin returns are diminishing each cycle as the asset matures — a $134,000 top would mean bitcoin would have only doubled its valuation compared to its 2021 top of $69,000. Back then, bitcoin had managed to triple its price compared to the 2017 cycle. Puell said ARK Invest was ready for such a scenario of diminishing returns, but that data was inconclusive so far.
At the beginning of the year, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/11/cathie-wood-sees-bitcoin-price-reaching-15m-by-2030-after-etf-approval» target=»_blank»>laid out</a> a bullish target of $1 million to $1.5 million per bitcoin by 2030, with a base target of $650,000. Price will likely be buoyed by the incoming Trump administration, Puell said, depending on who the President-elect picks as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and how accommodative towards risk-on assets the Federal Reserve’s policy turns out to be. Not to mention the prospect of a strategic bitcoin reserve.
“Monetary policy and the SEC stance are the things to focus on. But the analogy I would use is that a strategic bitcoin reserve wouldn’t be just like the cherry on top — it would be like a whole new cake on top of a cake,” Puell said.
But that doesn’t mean bitcoin will keep soaring forever. Seasonality and cycles mean that eventually, the top cryptocurrency could suffer another bear market, and eventually plunge 70% from its all-time high, Puell said. The price floor will depend, then, on how high bitcoin can go before the music stops.
Read more: <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/28/bitcoin-to-overcome-100-k-despite-pullback-has-plenty-of-more-room-before-topping-crypto-quant» target=»_blank»>Bitcoin to Overcome $100K Despite Pullback, Has Plenty of More Room Before Topping: CryptoQuant</a>
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Bitcoin Options Open Interest Hit Record $42.5B on Deribit as Traders Eye Next Bull Target for BTC

«Don’t be surprised if buying activity picks up across the spectrum of products tied to BTC,» CoinDesk said in Tuesday’s edition of the Crypto Daybook Americas, presenting a bullish case for bitcoin.
As bitcoin’s (BTC) price jumped to new lifetime highs above $111K during Thursday’s Asian trading hours it spurred record activity in the Deribit-listed options market.
The notional open interest (OI), or the dollar value of the number of active or open options contracts, rose to a record $42.5 billion, Deribit’s CEO, Luuk Strijers, told CoinDesk.
Options are derivative contracts that give the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call provides the right to buy, representing an implicit bullish bet on the market, while a put option offers insurance against price slides.
BTC’s move to record highs saw traders chase upside through higher strike call options.
«Most traded strikes in the past 24h: $120K and $130K upside calls for May and June expiry. Highest OI now sits at the $110K, $120K, and $300K June 27 strikes — showing bullish conviction,» Strijers said.
Deribit is the world’s largest crypto options exchange, accounting for nearly 80% of the global crypto options activity. The exchange also offers trading in perpetuals and spot markets. The overall open interest across crypto options and perpetual futures segments has also hit a record high of over $45 billion.
Publicly traded crypto exchange Coinbase has planned to acquire derivatives exchange Deribit in a $2.9 billion deal.
Read more: In $2.9B Deal, Coinbase Agrees to Buy Deribit to Expand in U.S. Crypto Options Market
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Bitcoin’s Rally to Record Highs Puts Focus on $115K Where an ‘Invisible Hand’ May Slow Bull Run

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has surged to record highs, sparking optimism among investors. However, expected hedging activities of market makers/dealers, often an invisible force, at certain price levels, may slow the ascent.
The leading cryptocurrency topped the $111,000 mark during the Asian hours, with analysts anticipating stronger demand.
«The OTC supply may be drying up, driving up prices. This would not be reflected in exchange trading volumes or the derivatives market. If this is the case, get ready for a wild ride, as more demand is coming on board with a competitive bitcoin corporate treasury environment and, perhaps, a less elastic OTC spot market,» said Alexander S. Blume, founder and CEO of SEC-registered investment advisor Two Prime.
Blume explained that corporate treasuries coming on board have been buying over-the-counter «en masse,» and rumors are that sovereign demand for the cryptocurrency has picked up.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said BTC could rally to $180,000 by the end of the year, led by spot ETF inflows, slower post-halving supply growth and growing institutional adoption.
«Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 is another key macro catalyst, sparking renewed interest in BTC and ETH as hedges against fiat risk. BTC’s ability to hold above $103,000 amid volatility highlights the market’s shift toward crypto as a strategic reserve asset,» Lee said.
Focus on $115K
While the path of least resistance is on the higher side, the pace of the bullish move may be challenged by potential hedging activities of options market makers/dealers at around $115K and higher price levels, according to Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital.
Dealers are entities tasked with creating liquidity in an exchange’s order book. They are always on the opposite side of traders’ positions and make money from the bid-ask spread, while constantly striving to maintain a net-price neutral exposure.
Data from Deribit’s BTC options market, tracked by Amberdata, shows dealers hold significant «positive gamma» exposure at $115K and higher strike price levels.
When dealers’ gamma is positive, it means they are long call or put options. In this case, their delta (market exposure) increases when the underlying asset increases. Thus, their delta-hedging mandate requires selling more of the underlying asset as the price rises and vice versa.
The order-flow, therefore, acts as a contrarian force, limiting the price volatility, Anderson told CoinDesk.
Dealer gamma is significantly positive, from $115K to $150K, thanks to investors’ interest in selling (overwriting) higher strike call options to generate additional yield on top of their spot holdings.
«There is lot of positive gamma in the market due to call overwriters. They will be more wary of this breakout, and if we can clear the pocket of gamma at $115K, this [rally] could really start to go,» Anderson said.
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SHIB Holds Strong Above Key Support as Volume Spikes Nearly 4x

SHIB’s remarkable resilience during the recent trading session demonstrates growing investor confidence despite market turbulence.
The token’s ability to recover from a sudden drop to 0.0000143 with extraordinary volume support suggests institutional accumulation rather than retail panic.
With the psychological support at 0.000015 holding firm and multiple tests of upper resistance, SHIB appears poised for potential continuation of its upward trajectory if current accumulation patterns persist.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- SHIB demonstrated remarkable resilience over the 24-hour period, climbing from 0.0000146 to 0.0000150, representing a 2.85% gain with a range of 0.00000081 (5.64%).
- The token experienced significant volatility at 17:00 when price plummeted to 0.0000143 before finding strong volume support.
- A massive 2.83 trillion volume spike—nearly 4x the average—provided crucial support during the recovery phase.
- Key resistance at 0.0000151 was tested twice during the period, with accumulation patterns forming in the final hours.
- Three consecutive high-volume candles (23:00-01:00) established a solid foundation above the 0.000015 psychological level.
- In the last hour, SHIB exhibited notable volatility with a significant price surge at 01:22 when it broke above the 0.0000151 resistance level, reaching 0.00001514 by 01:31.
- Elevated trading volumes supported the bullish momentum, particularly during the 01:36 candle which recorded nearly 80 billion in volume.
- A sharp correction at 01:37-01:38 dropped the price 5% to 0.00001505, before establishing a consolidation pattern.
External References
- «Analyst Says When This Shiba Inu Breakout Happens, You’ll Want a Piece of SHIB«, The Crypto Basic, published May 21, 2025.
- «Shiba Inu (SHIB) Primed for Breakout as Accumulation and Burn Rate Surge«, Coin Edition, published May 21, 2025.
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