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Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Slides to $490, Undoing The ‘Trump Bump’ in BTC

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The bullish sentiment seen after Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 Presidential elections has completely fizzled out, according to an indicator tied to the CME bitcoin (BTC) futures.

The indicator in consideration is the spread between «continuous» next month and front-month standard BTC futures trading on the global derivatives giant. A continuous contract is a calculated representation of a series of successively expiring futures contracts, allowing for a continuous historical data series for analysis.

The spread has narrowed to $495, the lowest since Nov. 5, having peaked at $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to data source TradingView. In other words, it has completely reversed the Trump bump in a sign of weakening bullish sentiment in the market.

«The narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures could suggest traders are tempering their price expectations,» Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.

The unwinding of the Trump bump likely means the market has moved past the narrative that a pro-crypto President in the White House is good for the industry, and macro correlations are back in the driver’s seat.

«What we can see is that the front contract basis has repriced lower substantially since the beginning of March, signalling moderating near term expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent rally—the election of President Trump—has been fully priced in,» Erdosi said.

That’s already happening. Both BTC and Wall Street’s tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, have dropped 20% and 8%, respectively, since early February on a myriad of factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, Trump tariffs and the outlook for inflation and economic growth.

Additionally, the bitcoin market had to digest disappointment over the lack of fresh purchases in Trump’s strategic digital asset reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order, directing a creation of a strategic reserve that includes BTC seized in enforcement actions.

«The announcement about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not what the market was hoping for. Many expected the Reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead, they stated they would not sell any of their existing Bitcoin or confiscated Bitcoin. While this is a positive move, it caused a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price,» Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics, told CoinDesk in an email.

Futures are still in contango

While the spread between next month and front month CME futures contracts has narrowed, the entire curve remains in contango, where far-dated futures contracts (with longer maturities) trade at a premium to near-dated.

That’s how it usually is in all markets due to factors like storage, financing, insurance costs, and expectations of rising prices over coming weeks or months.

«The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests the recent move is driven by unlevered spot longs being squeezed, rather than broader market contagion,» Erdösi noted.

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ORQO Debuts in Abu Dhabi With $370M in AUM, Sets Sight on Ripple USD Yield

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ORQO Group, a new institutional asset manager with $370 million in assets under management, has launched on Tuesday with plans to build out a yield platform for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin.

The group, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, consolidates four entities from both traditional finance and digital assets: Mount TFI, a private debt specialist and licensed fund manager in Poland, Monterra Capital, a multi-strategy digital hedge fund in Malta, blockchain engineering studio Nextrope and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Soil compliant with MiCA, the EU’s crypto framework.

Already licensed in Poland and Malta, the group is seeking approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market to expand services in the Middle East, a region it sees as a hub for regulated digital asset growth.

«It’s an opportunity to become a global on-chain asset manager,» ORQO CEO Nicholas Motz said in an interview with CoinDesk. «We have all the pieces: the off-chain asset management, and on-chain, too.»

ORQO’s effort is part of a larger trend that’s been reshaping crypto markets: moving traditional financial instruments like private credit, U.S. Treasuries, or trade finance deals onto blockchain networks. The process is also known as tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). Data from rwa.xyz shows that the RWA market has grown into a nearly $30 billion sector, though it remains tiny compared to traditional finance markets such as the $2 trillion private credit sector. Still, the growth potential is immense: the tokenized RWA market could reach $18.9 trillion by 2033, a joint report by Ripple and BCG projected.

Yield platform Soil is a key piece in ORQO’s gameplan, connecting the firm’s RWA access with crypto capital capital. It aims to provide returns on stablecoins deposits from tokenized private credit, real estate and hedge fund strategies.

As part of the next stage, the firm plans to open several credit pools targeting holders of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin in the near future, allowing investors such as institutional treasuries or protocol reserves to earn a yield on their holdings.

Read more: Tokenization of Real-World Assets is Gaining Momentum, Says Bank of America

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Coinbase Policy Chief Pushes Back on Bank Warnings That Stablecoins Threaten Deposits

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Contrary to claims from the U.S. banking industry, stablecoins do not pose a risk to the financial system, according to the chief policy officer at crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Faryar Shirzad. Banks’ claims that they do are are myths crafted to defend their revenues, he wrote in a Tueday blog post.

«The central claim — that stablecoins will cause a mass outflow of bank deposits — simply doesn’t hold up,» Shirzad wrote. «Recent analysis shows no meaningful link between stablecoin adoption and deposit flight for community banks and there’s no reason to believe big banks would fare any worse.»

Larger lenders still hold trillions of dollars at the Federal Reserve and if deposits were really at risk, he argued, they would be competing harder for customer funds by offering higher interest rates rather than parking cash at the central bank

According to Shirzad, the real reason for banks’ opposition is the payments business. Stablecoins, digital tokens whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar, offer faster and cheaper ways to move money, threatening an estimated $187 billion in annual swipe-fee revenue for traditional card networks and banks.

He compared the current pushback to earlier battles against ATMs and online banking, when incumbents warned of systemic dangers but, he said, were ultimately trying to protect entrenched profits.

Shirzad also dismissed reports predicting trillions in potential outflows from deposits into stablecoins, whose total market cap is around $290 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. He stressed that stablecoins are primarily used as payment tools — for trading digital assets or sending funds abroad — not as long-term savings products.

Someone purchasing stablecoins to settle with an overseas supplier, he argued, is opting for a more efficient transaction method the going through their bank, not pulling money from a savings account.

He urged banks to embrace the technology instead of resisting it, saying stablecoin rails could cut settlement times, lower correspondent banking costs and provide round-the-clock payments. Those institutions willing to adapt, he wrote, stand to benefit from the shift.

The U.K., too, faces concerns about the effect of stablecoins on the financial industry.

The Financial Times reported Monday that the Bank of England is considering setting limits on how many «systemic» stablecoins people and companies can hold — setting thresholds as low as 10,000 pounds ($13,600) for individuals and about 10 million pounds for businesses.

Officials define systemic stablecoins as those already widely used for U.K. payments or expected to become so, and say the caps are needed to prevent sudden deposit outflows that could weaken lending and financial stability.

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Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance Unveils Connected Custody Settlement for Digital Assets

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Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, unveiled AnchorNote, a system designed for institutional clients who want to trade digital assets without moving them out of regulated custody.

The system integrates BridgePort, a network of crypto exchanges and custodians, enabling off-exchange settlement and connectivity to multiple trading venues. By keeping assets in custody while allowing real-time collateral movement, AnchorNote aims to improve capital efficiency and reduce counterparty risk, according to a press release.

The service allows clients to set up dedicated trading lines, with BridgePort handling messaging between venues and Crypto Finance acting as collateral custodian, the press release said. Institutions can manage collateral through a dashboard or integrate the service directly into their existing infrastructure using APIs, it said. APIs, or application programming interfaces, allow software programs to communicate directly with one another.

“Institutional clients face a constant tradeoff between security and capital efficiency,” said Philipp E. Dettwiler, head of custody and settlement at Crypto Finance. “AnchorNote is designed to bridge that gap.”

For traders, the setup eliminates the need for pre-funding exchanges while providing immediate access to liquidity across platforms. In practice, a Swiss bank could pledge bitcoin held in custody and deploy it instantly across multiple trading venues without moving the coins on-chain.

The rollout begins in Switzerland, with Crypto Finance planning to expand across Europe.

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