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Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Slides to $490, Undoing The ‘Trump Bump’ in BTC

The bullish sentiment seen after Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 Presidential elections has completely fizzled out, according to an indicator tied to the CME bitcoin (BTC) futures.
The indicator in consideration is the spread between «continuous» next month and front-month standard BTC futures trading on the global derivatives giant. A continuous contract is a calculated representation of a series of successively expiring futures contracts, allowing for a continuous historical data series for analysis.
The spread has narrowed to $495, the lowest since Nov. 5, having peaked at $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to data source TradingView. In other words, it has completely reversed the Trump bump in a sign of weakening bullish sentiment in the market.
«The narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures could suggest traders are tempering their price expectations,» Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.
The unwinding of the Trump bump likely means the market has moved past the narrative that a pro-crypto President in the White House is good for the industry, and macro correlations are back in the driver’s seat.
«What we can see is that the front contract basis has repriced lower substantially since the beginning of March, signalling moderating near term expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent rally—the election of President Trump—has been fully priced in,» Erdosi said.
That’s already happening. Both BTC and Wall Street’s tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, have dropped 20% and 8%, respectively, since early February on a myriad of factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, Trump tariffs and the outlook for inflation and economic growth.
Additionally, the bitcoin market had to digest disappointment over the lack of fresh purchases in Trump’s strategic digital asset reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order, directing a creation of a strategic reserve that includes BTC seized in enforcement actions.
«The announcement about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not what the market was hoping for. Many expected the Reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead, they stated they would not sell any of their existing Bitcoin or confiscated Bitcoin. While this is a positive move, it caused a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price,» Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics, told CoinDesk in an email.
Futures are still in contango
While the spread between next month and front month CME futures contracts has narrowed, the entire curve remains in contango, where far-dated futures contracts (with longer maturities) trade at a premium to near-dated.
That’s how it usually is in all markets due to factors like storage, financing, insurance costs, and expectations of rising prices over coming weeks or months.
«The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests the recent move is driven by unlevered spot longs being squeezed, rather than broader market contagion,» Erdösi noted.
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Bitcoin Reclaims $85K Following Fed and Stocks Rose, but One Analyst Suggests Caution

Crypto markets are experiencing a modest move to the upside following today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, in which the U.S. central bank left interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 4.5% in the last 24 hours and is now trading for $85,500, its highest point since March 9.
The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — is up 6%. Ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) have both surged by 7%, while Ripple’s XRP token has risen 10% off the back of CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is planning to drop its case against the company.
Crypto stocks are also doing relatively well, especially bitcoin mining companies like Bitdeer (BTDR) and Core Scientific (CORZ), which are up 10% and 8% on the day, respectively. Bitdeer is likely buoyed from the technological progress it recently made in its ASIC manufacturing process, as well as from the news that stablecoin giant Tether was increasing its stake in the company to 21%.
Core Scientific, meanwhile, is potentially reaping the benefits of AI firm CoreWeave (Core Scientific’s main customer) filing for an initial public offering earlier in the month. Even so, both companies are down more than 61% and 53% since January and November respectively.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariff-related inflation was likely to be transitory and that recession risks remained low. And despite the market reacting positively to the meeting — Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones all gained 1% or more — market commentators weren’t necessarily convinced.
“The word — ‘transitory’ — is back at the Federal Reserve as Chair Powell characterizes the price effects of tariffs as a one-off,” economist Mohamed A. El-Erian posted on X. “I would have thought that, particularly after the big policy mistake of earlier this decade and given all the current uncertainties, some Fed officials would show greater humility. It’s simply too early to say with any regress of confidence that the inflationary effects will be transitory.”
Gold continued to rise after surpassing the $3,000 mark on Tuesday and today hit a new record above $3,050. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said that the U.S. central bank was signaling that any additional rate cuts would likely happen at the cost of battering stocks. “The Fed is no longer comfortable gliding to neutral as we get closer to their inflation target. I think you can argue that the soft landing is over,” she posted.
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First Solana Futures ETF To Hit Markets This Week

Two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking futures in Solana (SOL) are coming on the market on Thursday.
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Volatility Shares LLC is launching two ETFs, the Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) which will track Solana futures and the Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT), which offers leveraged exposure.
SOLZ will have a management fee of 0.95% while traders will be charged 1.85% for SOLT, according to the filing.
The products will be the first-ever funds tracking futures in Solana, which at a market cap of $66.5 billion is the sixth largest cryptocurrency on the market. The token is up 6% over the past 24 hours, in line with the broader crypto market.
The launch of these funds could be significant in the approval of a spot Solana ETF, which would hold the token directly. The SEC has stated in the past that in order to approve a spot product, they would like to see an established futures market for the asset.
After the launch of the spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs last year, issuers have been looking to bring further crypto-related products to the market.
Several issuers, including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and VanEck, have filed paperwork to launch a spot Solana ETF, which have yet to be reviewed by the SEC. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts believe there to be a 75% chance for those funds to be approved by the end of this year.
However, a decision likely won’t be made before Paul Atkins, who has been nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as chair of the SEC, is confirmed by the Senate. There is currently no hearing scheduled for Atkins.
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Fed Holds Rates Steady, Cuts Growth Outlook, Raises Inflation Forecast

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark fed funds rate range steady at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, the second consecutive pause since three straight rate cuts to end 2024.
The Fed’s quarterly economic projections, though, showed a sharp decline in expectations for economic growth, with the GDP increase in 2025 now seen at just 1.7% versus 2.1% at the December forecast. The growth outlooks for 2026 and 2027 were trimmed as well.
«Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased,» the Fed said in an accompanying statement, which is likely a reference to the tumult surrounding the tariff regime being threatened by President Trump.
Alongside slowing growth, core PCE inflation is now seen at 2.8% this year versus the previous 2.5% projection. The core inflation outlooks for 2026 and 2027 were left at 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively.
The «dot plot» — showing FOMC members’ outlooks for where interest rates might be headed — still sees the fed funds rate ending this year at 3.9%, the same as December’s forecast. The ending fed funds rates for 2026 and 2027 continue to be projected at 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively.
The Fed also said it would begin to slow the pace of securities runoff from its balance sheet — so-called quantitative tightening — beginning on April 1. The decline in Treasury paper then will be trimmed to just $5 billion from $25 billion previously.
Bitcoin (BTC) was volatile in the minutes immediately following the release, but headed lower at press time to $83,500 against just above $84,000 prior to the news.
U.S. stocks continue to hold solid gains and the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped two basis points to 4.28%. Gold, the star of late among asset classes, remains near a record high at $3,048 per ounce.
Risk assets have been beaten down over the past few weeks as mounting concerns over President Trump’s tariff threats and its perceived impact on inflation and economic growth weighed on investor sentiment. The Fed turning hawkish at the December and January meetings also quashed hopes of looser financial conditions for the near-term, posing headwinds for cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time (18:30 UTC) with traders monitoring the press conference for further clues of policymakers’ outlook on monetary policy.
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