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Bitcoin Bulls Lose Steam, Aussie-Yen Dips, Hinting at Broad-Based Risk Aversion Ahead

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) bullish momentum has hit a snag this week for several reasons, including a weaker stateside demand. Now, the Australian dollar-Japanese yen exchange rate or the AUD/JPY pair, the classic risk barometer, has turned south again, signaling caution to risk asset bulls.

The Australian dollar (AUD), a commodity currency, is a proxy for global economic health, particularly for emerging markets and China. On the other hand, the Japanese yen (JPY) is seen as a safe-haven currency that investors turn to during times of stress. Thus, a decline in AUD/JPY is considered a risk-off signal.

Matt Simpson, an analyst at The City Index, summed it up in his analysis as follows: «As AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk, we should take note that all is not looking well around current levels. If AUD/JPY tanks, it’s likely to be followed by risk in general.»

A crypto bull might brush off the FX drama as a non-event, particularly against the backdrop of BTC’s recent meteoric rise close to $100,000, but history suggests otherwise.

Remember late July and early August? The Japanese yen began rising on rumors that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was about to hike rates, which it did at the end of the month. The AUD/JPY pair dropped over 8% to 98 in July, hinting at a wave of risk aversion that kicked in during the first week of August.

BTC fell from roughly $70,000 to $50,000 as the yen strength led to traders closing bullish bets in risk assets funded by the cheap JPY-denominated loans. The AUD/JPY pair eventually found a floor at 90 and rebounded alongside other risk assets.

Fast forward to now, the AUD/JPY pair has dipped below the trendline, characterizing its recovery from the early August low of 90. The breakdown points to a renewed strength in the yen accompanied by a growing chatter of a possible BOJ rate hike next month.

If that’s not enough, markets are second-guessing the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by another 25 basis points next month and trade war fears are resurfacing with President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose the supposedly-inflationary tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.

«Expectations are growing that the BOJ will raise rates again in December. This comes amid the prevailing view that the Fed will keep rates on hold at the December FOMC meeting,» ING said in a note to clients this week, adding it expects the BOJ to lift the benchmark borrowing costs in December.

«On 21 November, [BOJ governor] Ueda left the door open for further tightening, stating that the BOJ would ‘decide at each meeting,’ fueling speculation of a December rate hike,» ING explained.

BTC bulls should keep their eyes peeled for round two of the yen-led risk-off scenario, which could potentially push prices well below $90,000.

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Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Zoomas BTC Inches Towards All-Time High; DOGE, ADA, XRP Add 4%

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Bitcoin (BTC) is inches away from its all-time high, hovering over $107,000, with analysts eyeing a move higher in the coming days.

Futures open interest across major exchanges hit $75 billion, an all-time high on Tuesday in U.S. dollar terms, signaling heightened speculative activity and leveraged positioning.

(CoinGlass)

That comes alongside a continued rally in spot markets, with BTC holding above $100,000 for more than 11 straight days — a sign, some traders say, of accumulation and strength at current levels.

“The current price action appears to be a consolidation phase,” said Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, in an email to CoinDesk. “It’s marked by accumulation, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher that could lead to a new all-time high.”

Bitcoin was changing hands above $107,500 as of Tuesday morning, up nearly 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) and Solana’s SOL added 2%, while dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano’s ADA and xrp (XRP) bumped 3%.

Derivatives data support the bullish outlook. The call-to-put open interest ratio reached 1.55 this weekend. At the same time, premiums for out-of-the-money calls rose across the board, a sign traders are positioning for a breakout, HTX Research’s Chloe Zheng said in a weekend update shared with CoinDesk.

Meanwhile, short-term implied volatility (IV) dropped to an 18-month low of 35–40%, reflecting a relatively calm backdrop despite rising positioning, HTX said.

“This mix of euphoric sentiment and low volatility often conceals the build-up of excessive leverage,” HTX Research noted in a weekend update. “But under such conditions, Bitcoin could retest new highs within 30–45 days.”

Still, resistance at the $107,000 level has held for now. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in an email that the market is driven by “a crowd of retail investors” and momentum-chasing traders who remain undeterred by macro uncertainty or recent exchange security concerns.

“Further dynamics will depend on changes in global risk appetite,” Kuptsikevich wrote. “If the resistance at $107K is broken, there are more chances to restore the uptrend. That opens a path toward $115K.”

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Bitcoin Sets Record Daily Close With $110K as the Next Level to Watch for BTC

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Although bitcoin (BTC) can be traded 24/7 its candles open and close daily similar to foreign exchange markets. The latest data from TradingView shows Tuesday’s candle ended (UTC) at $106,830, the highest-ever daily closing price.

The bullish move came as investors poured money into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amid chaotic price action in bond markets that suggested heightened concerns about the fiscal health of major economies, including the U.S.

Analysts told CoinDesk last week that the worsening fiscal debt situation could bode well for BTC and other assets such as gold.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the percentage difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and the price on Binance (USDT trading pair), remained positive, indicating a persistent buying pressure from the U.S.-based investors.

With the uptrend in progress, the next key level to watch is $110,000. Data from Deribit’s BTC options market, tracked by Amberdata, shows dealers or market makers hold a large net «negative gamma» exposure at the $110,000 level.

Dealers holding negative gamma typically trade/hedge in the direction of the market to maintain their overall market exposure delta neutral. That, in turn, amplifies bearish and bullish moves.

In other words, the rally may accelerate on a potential breakout above the $110,000 mark. The options market has grown significantly over the past five years, with dealer hedging adding to volatility on several occasions.

BTC dealer gamma exposure at various strikes. (Deribit/Amberdata)

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SEC Charges Unicoin, Top Executives With $100M ‘Massive Securities Fraud’

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued crypto company Unicoin and three executives on Tuesday night on fraud charges, saying the company raised over $100 million for tokens that were not actually backed by the real estate its executives claimed.

The SEC sued Unicoin, CEO Alexander Konanykhin, former board chair Maria Moschini, senior vice president and general counsel Richard Devlin and former chief investment officer and investor relations officer Alejandro Dominguez on securities law violations,

Among its allegations, the SEC said Unicoin never actually owned the real estate properties it told investors it had acquired, and that those properties’ values were inflated.

«For example, between September 2023 and January 2024, the Promoting Defendants announced acquisitions of properties in Argentina, Thailand, Antigua, and the Bahamas, purportedly with appraised values totaling more than of $1.4 billion; in fact, the majority of those transactions never closed and the actual combined value of the four properties was no more than $300 million,» the complaint said.

The defendants also «overstated the Company’s sales» of its rights certificates, suggesting in social media posts and to investors that it had raised far more funds than it actually had, the SEC alleged. While Unicoin claimed it had made $3 billion in sales by June 2024, it actually never sold more than $110 million in its rights certificates, according to the complaint.

Moreover, Unicoin advertised its rights certificates, including by promising outsized returns of up to 9 million percent, the SEC alleged, pointing to marketing efforts on taxi cabs, ferries, «office building elevator screens,» digital billboards, coasters, television programs, news websites and public wi-fi kiosks.

A Unicoin taxi cab ad in Manhattan in May 2024. (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

«Additional examples of the Promoting Defendants’ statements include: (a) social media and website posts that touted potential returns of 9,000,000% based on bitcoin’s 9,000,000% growth in the past 10 years and told investors to ‘take advantage of the early days of Unicoin and get them today,’ highlighting that ‘Bitcoin experienced a tremendous rise in value, transforming early adopters into millionaires, and even billionaires,'» the filing said.

Read more: Unicoin CEO: Why Are We Still Under the SEC’s Gun?

Unicoin received a Wells notice from the SEC last December, informing the company that the regulator — then under the leadership of former Chair Gary Gensler — intended to file securities fraud charges. Last month, Konanykhin sent a letter to Unicoin’s shareholders, informing them that the company had rebuffed the SEC’s attempt to settle the charges, rejecting what he described as an “ultimatum” to attend a settlement negotiation meeting by April 18.

“We declined to show up,” Konanykhin told CoinDesk in an April interview, adding that the SEC had made certain pre-meeting demands he deemed “unacceptable” and claiming that the SEC’s probe had caused “multi-billion-dollar damages” to the company.

Read more: Unicoin CEO Reject’s SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe

Neither Konanykhin nor a spokesperson for Unicoin responded to CoinDesk’s request for comment by press time. In a press release shared earlier this year in response to a Wall Street Journal article, a spokesperson said, «Unicoin, the only fully U.S.-registered, U.S.-regulated, U.S.-audited, and U.S.-publicly reporting cryptocurrency company, has consistently complied with all regulations.»

According to court documents, the SEC is seeking disgorgement and civil penalties.

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