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Bitcoin Bulls Bank on Fed’s ‘Stealth’ Rate Cuts: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The one thing bitcoin (BTC) bulls constantly discuss is liquidity easing through Fed interest-rate cuts and the possibility of rates falling back to zero, just as in 2020-21. Back then, the zero rate triggered an unprecedented bull run throughout the financial markets, including low-cap altcoins.

Now, new analysis from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco shows a 9% chance of the benchmark fed funds rate falling to the so-called zero lower bound within the next seven years. Current data shows expectations for elevated interest rates, but the chance of a zero level remains significant over the medium to long term, it said.

That’s in the long term. The probability of rates falling that low in the next two years is just 1%. But remember, all it takes is just one black swan event like the Covid crash for the Fed to consider zero rates. For now, rates remain at 4.25% with traders pricing in a single 25 basis-point cut for the rest of the year.

The central bank, however, has been conducting stealth rate cuts, that is it’s easing liquidity through measures such as reducing the «enhanced supplementary ratio» and freeing up money for banks to buy Treasury notes, according to Alexander Blume, CEO at investment adviser Two Prime. Furthermore, the Treasury recently expanded its buyback program, injecting additional capital into the economy, Blume said.

It’s no surprise, then, that some large traders are anticipating renewed bullish volatility and pouring money into the $130K bitcoin call option on Deribit. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows for the third consecutive day on Monday, and traders are also chasing bullish futures bets in XRP.

In other news, Bit Digital completed its strategic Treasury shift to ether (ETH)following a $172 million public equity raise and the sale of 280 BTC. Dubai approved the QCD Money Market Fund, a joint product from Qatar National Bank and DMZ Finance. Australia-listed crypto fund manager DigitalX (DCC) raised A$20.7 million ($13.5 million) to boost its BTC stash.

Patrick Hansen, Circle’s EU strategy director, disclosed on X that 53 companies have obtained licenses in the six months since the European Union implemented the MiCA crypto-asset regulation. The data shows strong demand for compliance-friendly products. Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, hasn’t yet sought a license.

In traditional markets, the yield on the Japanese 30-year government bond yield rose to 3.11%, the highest since May 22, a sign of renewed volatility in government bonds across advanced nations. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • July 9, 11 a.m.: The Isthmus hard fork activates on Celo (CELO) mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2 network, aligning its L2 stack with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improving scalability, interoperability and security through key Ethereum Improvement Proposals.
    • July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a critical step in the exchange’s restructuring after the $234 million hack on July 18, 2024.
    • July 15: Alchemist staking update launches, allowing token holders to stake ALCH for access to advanced features, premium benefits and ecosystem rewards, potentially boosting token utility and demand.
    • July 15: Lynq is expected to debut its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.
  • Macro
    • July 8, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases May retail sales data.
      • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
      • Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 4.8%
    • July 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases June consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.38% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.22% vs. Prev. 4.06%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.27% vs. Prev. 0.28%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.31% vs. Prev. 4.42%
    • July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
    • July 9, 2 p.m.: Release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the June 17–18 meeting.
    • July 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 026%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.32% vs. Prev. 5.32%
    • July 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended July 5.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 233K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1980K vs. Prev. 1964K
    • July 10, 1:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth. Livestream link.
    • July 10–11: The fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, bringing together global leaders and stakeholders to advance Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction amid the war with Russia.
    • Aug. 1, 2025, 12:01 a.m.: Reciprocal tariffs take effect after President Trump’s July 7 executive order delayed the original July 9 deadline, making this the start date for higher tariffs on imports from countries without trade deals.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
    • Compound DAO is running multiple votes on whether to adopt an Oracle Extractable Value (OEV) solution for Ethereum mainnet, Unichain, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Scroll, Mantle, Ronin and Linea. Delegates can choose between implementing Api3, Chainlink’s Secure Value Relay (SVR), or maintaining the current setup without OEV. Voting for all of these ends July 12.
    • July 9, 1 p.m.: Livepeer (LKPT) to host a Fireside Chat.
  • Unlocks
    • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $10.08 million.
    • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $49.54 million.
    • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $14.05 million.
    • July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $14.01 million.
    • July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $30.21 million.
    • July 18: Official TRUMP (TRUMP) to unlock 45.35% of its circulating supply worth $768.22 million.
    • July 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $88.8 million.
  • Token Launches
    • July 8: Boom (BOOM) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, KuCoin, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.
    • July 9: RCADE Network (RCADE) to be listed on Binance, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Sei Network’s total value locked (TVL) hit an all-time high of $626 million, marking a meteoric rise from just $60 million a year ago — a growth rate far exceeding most competing chains.
  • Analysts attribute the surge to increased on-chain activity and capital inflows, with daily active addresses spiking to a two-year high following regulatory approval for the token’s listing on local exchanges from Japan’s Financial Services Agency.
  • Sei’s entry into the highly regulated Japanese market is seen as a key catalyst, boosting both investor confidence and institutional interest.
  • The SEI price doubled in June, fueled by a U.S. government-backed stablecoin pilot and momentum around a proposed shift to an EVM-only architecture in SIP-3.
  • Despite long-term upside, SEI remains volatile, currently down over 78% from its March 2024 peak and trading at $0.2649.
  • $0.25 is now a critical technical support level, with some market watchers warning that a break below could lead to a retest of $0.20.
  • Investors are watching closely as Sei juggles rapid growth with high-stakes network changes, regulatory tailwinds and a still-fragile technical setup.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Negative perpetual funding rates for BNB, TRX, SOL, XLM and AVAX suggest a bias for shorts. BTC, ETH and XRP perpetuals show a moderate bullish bias with marginally positive rates.
  • BTC and ETH activity on the CME remains dull, with the annualized three-month basis flat below 10%.
  • On Deribit, traders are seeking bullish exposure through the bitcoin $130K strike calls.
  • ETH block flows featured a long position in the $3,200 call expiring on Sept. 26 and a short position in the $2,100 put expiring on July 25.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.54%% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $108,467.33 (24hrs: -0.23%)
  • ETH is up 0.74% at $2,552.44 (24hrs: -0.28%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.69% at 3,086.44 (24hrs: -0.45%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.97%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.9157% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.14% at 97.35
  • Gold futures are down 0.22% at $3,335.30
  • Silver futures are unchanged at $36.93
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.26% at 39,688.81
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 24,148.07
  • FTSE is up 0.15% at 8,820.05
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,342.75
  • DJIA closed on Monday down 0.94% at 44,406.36
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.79% at 6,229.98
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 20,412.52
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down unchanged at 27,020.28
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.68% at 2,695.20
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.415%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,281.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.24% at 22,938.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.11% at 44,630.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 65.3 (unchanged)
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02352 (0.18%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 884 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $58.87
  • Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $438,326
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 148,445
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.6 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.22%

Technical Analysis

SOL/USD's price chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • The daily chart for programmable blockchain Solana’s SOL token shows a triangular price consolidation following late June’s breakout from a falling channel.
  • Traders typically wait for clear direction cues to emerge in such situations.
  • A breakout from the triangle will likely yield notable price gains.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $395.67 (-2.06%), +0.84% at $399.01
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $357.1 (+0.37%), +0.81% at $360
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $207.46 (+9.9%), -0.68% at $206.05
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $19.69 (-9.47%), +2.54% at $20.19
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.75 (-5.15%), +0.66% at $16.86
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.55 (-5.09%), +0.69% at $11.63
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.83 (-17.61%), +2.23% at $15.16
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.33 (-7.51%), +0.88% at $11.43
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.89 (-4.38%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.95 (-3.71%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.93 (-8.75%), +0.1% at $29.96

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $216.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $49.84 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $62.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $4.48 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~4.18 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Weekly net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs. (Glassnode)

  • The chart shows that the U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs registered net inflows worth 61,000 ETH in an eight-week winning streak.
  • The continued uptake for ETFs suggests a bullish outlook for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Can I unstake?pumpdotfun  Public Token Sale: All You Need to KnowCBOE  &  CanaryFunds  just filed an amended 19b-4 for the Canary Pengu ETF. Within an hour, users have started sending bitcoin using the peer-to-peer encrypted mesh network.Activity on the Solana $SOL network has surged, with over 14.63 million active addresses in the last 24 hours, shows data from

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Asia Morning Briefing: The First AI vs BTC Environmental Impact Numbers are Here. And it Might Start a New Debate

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Mistral AI recently offered a rare benchmark in the Artificial Intelligence industry’s environmental disclosure, detailing the footprint of its flagship large language model, Mistral Large 2.

Over 18 months, training and operating this model generated 20.4 kilotonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions, consumed 281,000 cubic meters of water, and depleted 660 kilograms of antimony-equivalent materials, Mistral’s report said. Notably, a single 400-token response from its chatbot, Le Chat, uses just 1.14 grams of CO₂, 45 mL of water, and 0.16 milligrams of mineral resources.

But how does this compare to bitcoin’s carbon footprint? After all, bitcoin’s energy use has been the subject of significant debate and is often cited when establishing bans on bitcoin mining in jurisdictions.

That makes AI inference seem downright frugal compared to Bitcoin’s proof-of-work engine. On average, one Bitcoin transaction emits between 600 and 700 kilograms of CO₂, consumes more than 17,000 liters of water, and generates over 130 grams of electronic waste.

Zooming out, the entire Bitcoin network emitted roughly 48 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2023, according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. It also consumed over 2 billion liters of water and produced more than 20,000 tonnes of e-waste.

However, the Cambridge Centre’s numbers, although peer-reviewed, have been the source of considerable criticism and require important caveats.

First, Bitcoin’s electricity mix is not monolithic.

According to a survey of miners conducted by BTC Investment fund Batcoinz as of March 2023, Hydropower (23.1%), wind (13.9%), and solar (5%) collectively account for more than 40% of Bitcoin’s energy consumption. The difference between the numbers is because surveys done by Batcoinz include off-grid generation.

Nuclear energy, often considered carbon-neutral, accounts for another 7.9%. Gas and coal together represent 44%, but Bitcoin’s energy profile is more diversified than critics often assume.

Second, LLMs may benefit from a cleaner grid by default. For example, nuclear energy comprises over 22% of the European Union’s electricity generation, which reduces the CO₂ emissions associated with model training and inference in EU-based data centers such as Mistral’s.

That advantage isn’t due to model architecture, it’s grid geography. A U.S.-based training run drawing from coal-heavy regions would present a very different environmental profile.

So while the marginal footprint of using an LLM is vastly smaller than processing a BTC transaction, both operate within infrastructure landscapes that significantly shape their true environmental impact.

Training frontier models like GPT-4 or Gemini can still require millions of GPU-hours and heavy water consumption, depending on location. Still, Bitcoin’s design, mining every 10 minutes regardless of demand, results in a fixed energy cost that scales with time, not usage.

In contrast, AI’s marginal cost scales with the frequency of model usage. That distinction makes the emissions from a chatbot reply easier to amortize than those from a block reward.

As global scrutiny increases over the environmental costs of computation, transparency initiatives like Mistral’s, provide important reference points.

While proof-of-work is energy-intensive, the Bitcoin blockchain’s halving mechanism steadily reduces the rate at which new coins are created, encouraging miners to become more efficient over time. Its environmental footprint should be weighed against the utility it provides in securing a decentralized, global financial network.

Continued improvements in clean energy adoption and mining optimization will be key for both BTC and AI as they scale into core pillars of the digital economy.

Market Movers:

BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $119,500, struggling to maintain momentum after last week’s all-time high of $123,100, as retail-driven sell pressure on Binance has pushed Net Taker Volume below $60 million and signaled growing bearish sentiment, according to CryptoQuant.

ETH: Ether has pulled back over 3% to $3,696 after a multi-week climb toward $4,000, as technical indicators flash red and analysts question whether the rally can continue without a broader correction, despite ongoing institutional accumulation.

Gold: Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Tuesday, with spot gold reaching a five-week high of $3,430.41 amid ongoing trade uncertainty and falling US bond yields, which continue to draw investor interest.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “massive Deal” with Japan, lifting tariffs to 15% on Japanese exports, with the Nikkei 225 rising 1.71% at the open.

S&P 500: US stocks closed mixed Tuesday, but the S&P 500 edged slightly higher to a record 6,309.62 as investors weighed earnings reports

Elsewhere in Crypto:

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Dan Tapiero Projects Crypto Economy Hitting $50T, Launches $500M Fund Under New Firm

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Well-known digital asset investor Dan Tapiero is merging private equity firms 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners under a new brand 50T, reflecting his forecast that the digital asset ecosystem will reach a market value of $50 trillion in the next decade.

«50T is a natural evolution from our original thesis in 2020 when we launched 10T with the belief that the digital asset ecosystem would grow from $300 billion to $10 trillion in 10 years,» Tapiero said in a Tuesday press release.

«Today, we estimate that we’re already at $5 trillion, far exceeding our initial timeline, which is why we’re adjusting our outlook upward,» he said. «Recent successes like the Circle IPO and Deribit acquisition demonstrate the maturity of this sector and validate our investment thesis that all value will eventually move on-chain.»

USDC stablecoin issuer Circle surged nearly 10-fold from its initial price following its the stock market debut last month, while crypto exchange Coinbase acquired Deribit for $2.9 billion in May.

Funds under 50T were investors in Circle, Deribit, and digital trading platform Etoro, which also went public recently, and other portfolio companies are also gearing towards going public, the press release said.

50T is also launching a $500 million growth equity fund dubbed 50T Fund alongside the rebrand.

It’s a closed-end fund with a ten-year horizon, designed to back later-stage companies building out core infrastructure in blockchain and web3, with a first close planned in Q4 2025.

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SEC Approves, Immediately Pauses Bitwise’s Bid to Convert BITW Crypto Index Fund to ETF

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The Securities and Exchange Commission approved — then abruptly paused — Bitwise’s plan to convert its Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) into a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Tuesday, raising fresh uncertainty around the agency’s standards for crypto ETFs.

The fund holds 90% of its weight in bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), with the remainder spread across Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Uniswap (UNI) and Polkadot (DOT). It manages $1.68 billion in assets and rebalances monthly.

Bitwise launched the fund in 2017. The 2.5% expense ratio remains steep by ETF standards, but the conversion to a spot ETF would make BITW the first multi-asset crypto index ETF in the U.S. — if it proceeds. The asset manager has not yet disclosed if the management fee would stay at 2.5%.

A similar product, Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which tracks BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA, also received initial SEC approval before the agency reversed course, pausing the fund’s launch.

A letter from the SEC on Tuesday said «the Commission will review the delegated action,» identical wording to the letter Grayscale received when its ETF was paused.

According to sources who spoke to CoinDesk at the time, the SEC’s hesitation likely stems from the need to establish consistent standards for crypto ETFs, particularly for tokens like XRP and ADA that do not yet have standalone ETFs.

The SEC’s ETF docket has been busy. On Tuesday, the regulator published filings from Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Invesco Galaxy, and others seeking to amend redemption mechanics for their Bitcoin and/or Ethereum ETFs. It also launched a review of the Canary Capital SUI ETF and extended the deadline on 21Shares’ SUI ETF application.

Separately, 21Shares filed a proposal for an ETF tracking ONDO, the token powering real-world asset platform Ondo Finance.

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