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Bitcoin Bounces to $106K After Iran-Israel Jitters, but Analysts Warn of Deeper Pullback

The crypto market is slightly bouncing back from early Friday’s jitters on escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
After slumping to the $102,600 mark, bitcoin BTC rebounded to around $106,000 before fading lower in the U.S. afternoon hours with reports about a fresh wave of airstrikes targeting Iran. The top cryptocurrency was down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, changing hands at $105,200 and still less than 6% shy of its all-time high price.
Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding memecoins, stablecoins and exchange coins — has lost 4.4% in the same period of time. Tokens such as ether ETH, avalanche AVAX and toncoin TON were the hardest hit, slumping between 6% and 8%.
Crypto stocks, however, aren’t doing too hot. Most equities are in the red, especially bitcoin miners MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT), down 5% and 4% respectively. A notable exception is stablecoin issuer Circle (CIRCL), which is still benefiting from the windfall of its recent IPO; the stock is up 13% today, with news of retail giants Amazon and Walmart reportedly exploring stablecoins adding to the momentum.
Traditional markets don’t seem overwhelmingly concerned by the war. While gold is up 1.3%, potentially gearing up for new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are only down 0.4% each.
What’s next for bitcoin?
«Nice bounce thus far and lack of follow-through lower,» well-followed crypto trader Skew said in a Friday X post. Market participants will likely remain cautious through the weekend with BTC tightly correlated with traditional markets amid heightened geopolitical risks, Skew added.
On the longer timeframe, some analysts see risks of a deeper pullback.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen noted that BTC’s drop below $106,000 translates to a failed breakout, and traders should wait for more favorable setups before rushing to buy the dip.
He highlighted the $100,000-$101,000 zone as key support, warning that a break below could mark a return to the broader consolidation phase similar to last summer.
John Glover, chief investment officer at bitcoin lender Ledn, argued that bitcoin entered a corrective phase from its record highs that could see the largest digital asset drop to $88,000-$93,000.
He said the $90,000 level could offer a favorable entry for opportunistic investors before BTC resumes its uptrend.
«Once this pattern has played out, the next move higher to the $130,000 area is expected to begin,» he said.
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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.
June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.
COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.
The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.
Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.
The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.
Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.
Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.
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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.
Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.
The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.
Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.
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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.
One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.
On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.
XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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