Uncategorized
Bitcoin Boom Likely as Bond Yields Surge — Yes, You Read That Correctly

Hardening government bond yields, especially on U.S. treasury notes, have traditionally been viewed as a headwind for bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets.
However, recent persistent resilience in treasury yields suggests a different story — one driven by factors that could be bullish for bitcoin, according to analysts.
The U.S. data released Tuesday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month for both headline and core in April, below the 0.3% readings expected. That resulted in a headline year-on-year inflation reading of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021.
Still, prices for the 10-year treasury yield, which is influenced by inflation, dropped, pushing the yield higher to 4.5%, the highest since April 11, according to data source TradingView.
The so-called benchmark yield is up 30 basis points in May alone and the 30-year yield has increased to 4.94%, sitting near the highest levels of the last 18 years.
This has been the theme of late: Yields remain elevated despite all the news about tariff pause, the U.S.-China trade deal and slower inflation. (The 10-year yield surged from 3.8% to 4.6% early last month as trade tensions saw investors sell U.S. assets)
The uptick in the so-called risk-free rate usually sparks fears of rotation of money out of stocks and other riskier investments such as crypto and into bonds.
Fiscal splurge
The latest yield surge, however, stems from expectations for continued fiscal expansion during President Donald Trump’s tenure, according to Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management.
«Bonds down on a weak CPI day is telling [of] fiscal expansion like crazy,» Hakimian said on X. «Everyone plays to win the midterm. Debt and deficits be damned. It’s great for Bitcoin, Gold, and Stocks. It’s terrible for Bonds.»
Hakimian explained that Trump’s tax plan would immediately add another $2.5 trillion to the fiscal deficit. In other words, the fiscal policy under Trump will likely be just as expansionary as under Biden, acting as a tailwind for risk assets, including bitcoin.
The details of the tax cut plan reported by Bloomberg early this week proposed $4 trillion in tax cuts and about $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, amounting to a fiscal expansion of $2.5 trillion.
Arif Husain, head of global fixed income and chief investment officer of the fixed income division at T. Rowe Price, noted that fiscal expansion will soon become the overriding focus for markets.
«Fiscal expansion may be growth supportive, but most importantly, it would likely put even more pressure on the treasury market. I am now even more convinced that the 10‑year U.S. treasury yield will reach 6% in the next 12–18 months,» Husain said in a blog post.
Sovereign risk
Per Pseudonymous observer EndGame Macro, the persistent elevated Treasury yields represent fiscal dominance, an idea first discussed by economist Russel Napier a couple of years ago and Maelstrom’s CIO and co-founder, Arthur Hayes, last year, and repricing of U.S. sovereign risk.
«When the bond market demands higher yields even as inflation falls, it’s not about the inflation cycle it’s about the sustainability of U.S. debt issuance itself,» EndGame Macro said on X.
The observer explained that higher yields create a self-reinforcing spiral of higher debt servicing costs, which call for more debt issuance (more bond supply) and even higher rates. All this ends up raising the risk of a sovereign debt crisis.
BTC, widely seen as an anti-establishment asset and an alternative investment vehicle, could gain more value in this scenario.
Moreover, as yields rise, the Fed and the U.S. government could implement yield curve control, or active buying of bonds to cap the 10-year yield from rising beyond a certain level, let’s assume 5%.
The Fed, therefore, is committed to buy more bonds every time the yield threatens to rise beyond 5%, which inadvertently boosts liquidity in the financial system, galvanizing demand for assets like bitcoin, gold and stocks.
Business
Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.
According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.
That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.
That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.
At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.
With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.
MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.
Business
HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.
The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.
The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.
Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.
Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
- HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
- Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
- Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
- The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
- Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
- High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
- Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Business
Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.
Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
- The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
- These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
- Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
- A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
- The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
- The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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