By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market is a sea of green with top coins extending near-vertical rallies that began over two weeks ago. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $122,000 for the first time on record, outpacing gold to become the best-performing asset in 2025.

The rally has the crypto community identifying bitcoin price targets ranging from $140,000 to $200,000. Some observers, however, cautioned against getting carried away by the bull momentum.

«While some analysts project $130-140K targets, history teaches us that parabolic moves often invite sharp corrections,» said Marcin Kazmierczak, a co-founder of blockchain oracle Redstone. «The industry’s maturation is real, institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and use cases are all advancing. Yet this very maturation demands we approach these milestones with professional discipline rather than euphoria.»

Kazmierczak noted that while the technical breakout is undeniable, the market hasn’t seen a correction in over 47 days. «More than $276m in leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours alone, reminding us that volatility remains bitcoin’s constant companion,» he added.

More caution shows in options market activity on Deribit, which suggests traders are in no rush to take bullish speculative bets. One-month risk reversals, measuring the pricing differential between bullish calls and bearish puts, are flat even as the spot price trades at record highs.

«By contrast, September and December risk reversals continue to show a firm bid for calls, which could indicate a preference to hedge against short-term volatility while maintaining a longer-term bullish outlook,» Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a market update.

Looking ahead, Congress’ so-called Crypto Week could see lawmakers discuss the CLARITY Act, the GENUIS Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act. Clarity on the regulatory front could bode well for top tokens, stablecoins and, especially, tokenization. As Kazmierczak said in his analysis, the real opportunity lies not in speculative trading, but in building the infrastructure for programmable money and asset tokenization.

Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data is likely to show a renewed uptick in inflation in June. According to analysts, it may not matter much to crypto, which is being driven higher by factors other than Fed rate-cut odds. Nevertheless, potential dollar strength on the back of inflation data could affect the crypto market. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a critical step in the exchange’s restructuring after the $234 million hack on July 18, 2024.
  • July 15: Alchemist staking update launches, allowing token holders to stake ALCH for access to advanced features, premium benefits and ecosystem rewards, potentially boosting token utility and demand.
  • July 15: Lynq is expected to debut its real-time, interest-bearing digital-asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.
  • July 15, 6 a.m.: Layer 1 blockchain Alephium (ALPH) activates the «Danube» hard fork upgrade on its mainnet, promising 8-second block times, 20,000+ TPS, groupless addresses, passkey login, chained transaction and enhanced developer tools.
  • July 15, 1 p.m.: Caffeine, an AI-powered platform that lets anyone build Web3 decentralized apps (dapps) using natural language, launches publicly at the “Hello, Self-Writing Internet” event in San Francisco. Caffeine uses Internet Computer (ICP) technology to generate fully on-chain, production-ready apps. Livestream link.
  • July 15, 3 p.m.: U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry holds a market structure hearing titled “Stakeholder Perspectives on Federal Oversight of Digital Commodities.” Livestream link.
  • July 16, 9 a.m.: U.S. House Ways and Means Committee oversight hearing titled «Making America the Crypto Capital of the World: Ensuring Digital Asset Policy Built for the 21st Century.»
  • July 18: Lorenzo Protocol, a Cosmos-based blockchain with native token BANK, launches USD1+ OTF on BNB Chain mainnet. This institutional-grade on-chain traded fund lets users stake stablecoins to mint sUSD1+ tokens that earn stable, NAV-backed yield from real-world assets, CeFi quantitative strategies and DeFi protocols. All returns are settled in USD1 stablecoin, issued by World Liberty Financial, whose stablecoin infrastructure powers the product’s stable yield mechanism.
• Macro
  • July 14, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases June inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 1.5%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 43.5%
  • July 15, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases June consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.6%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.5%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.6%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.7%
  • July 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases June consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.8%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.4%
  • July 16, 2 a.m.: U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases June consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.2%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.5% vs. Prev. 3.5%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. Prev. 0.2%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.4% vs. Prev. 3.4%
  • July 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Core PPI YoY Prev. 3%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 2.6%
  • July 16, 10 a.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Michael S. Barr on «Financial Regulation» at «Conversation with Governor Barr» in Washington. Livestream link.
  • July 17, 10 a.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler on «A View of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook» at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington. Livestream link.
  • July 17, 6:30 p.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University.
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trade partners that failed to reach agreements by the July 9 deadline. These increased duties could range from 10% to as high as 70%, impacting a wide range of goods.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • July 23: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • 1inch DAO is voting on a $25,000 grant proposal to research trustless cross-chain swaps between Bitcoin and Ethereum Virtual Machine networks using native Bitcoin tools like Taproot. Voting ends July 14.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a $245,000 funding proposal to expand Gotchi Battler into a revenue-generating game with PvE modes, NFTs and battle passes, aiming to reverse declining player numbers, boost GHST utility and create sustainable rewards. Voting ends July 22.
  • Uniswap DAO is conducting a temperature check on Etherlink’s request to co-incentivize Uniswap v3 liquidity. Tezos Foundation would put up $300K for three months of rewards on WETH/USDC, WBTC/USDC and LBTC/USDC, and is asking the DAO for $150K more, aiming to anchor Etherlink’s rising TVL and future native tokens on Uniswap. Voting ends July 18.
  • July 16, 5 p.m.: VeChain to host a monthly update with community representatives and the VeChain Foundation.
• Unlocks
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $18.29 million.
  • July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $19.23 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $39.11 million.
  • July 17: ZKSync (ZK) to unlock 2.41% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
  • July 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $10.55 million.
  • July 18: Official TRUMP (TRUMP) to unlock 45.35% of its circulating supply worth $886.13 million.
  • July 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $89.8 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 14: Chainbase (C) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, MEXC, and others.
  • July 16: Bybit to delist Tap (TAP), VaporFund (VPR), Cosplay Token (COT), Souni (SON), Tenet Protocol (TENE), Havah (HVH), Brawl AI Layer (BRAWL) among others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

• July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
• July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
• July 21-22: Malaysia Blockchain Week 2025 (Kuala Lumpur)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) jumped 31% over the weekend after Justin Sun tweeted a cartoon penguin in TRON gear.
• That single post, followed by Pudgy’s official “Everyone will Huddle” reply, triggered a wave of retail speculation and memetic energy across Solana markets.
• PENGU now trades at $0.0301 — up nearly 99% in the past 7 days — with daily volume topping $2.1 billion, making it one of the week’s best-performing assets.
• Pudgy Penguin NFTs surged to 14 ETH on Magic Eden, a 23.5% gain in 24 hours, indicating crossover attention from collectors.
• On-chain analyst Ali Metinex sees strong fundamentals, calling PENGU “one of the few meme coins with actual staying power,» and projects a move toward $0.060 by August.
• A spot ETF proposal filed by asset manager Canary Capital added fuel to the fire. If approved, it would give institutional investors direct exposure to PENGU.
• The ETF filing comes as market structure around memecoins matures, and as Pudgy’s user base crosses 430,000 across social platforms.
• PENGU’s rise has outpaced broader Solana memecoins this cycle, helped by strong branding, social virality and catalysts like Sun’s backing and ETF speculation.
• Despite the euphoria, traders are watching for a retrace. Overbought indicators and weekend volume spikes often precede short-term corrections in meme assets.

Derivatives Positioning

• The cumulative open interest in USDT and dollar-denominated BTC perpetuals on offshore exchanges has risen to 268K, the highest since May. Still, the tally remains locked in the nearly two-year-long range of 200K BTC to 255K BTC. A break out here could mean influx of new money chasing upside.
• Ether open interest remains elevated near record highs, tallying over 5.3 million ETH.
• BTC, ETH funding rates finally topped 10%, catching up with altcoins to suggest growing bias for bullish plays.
• Block trades via OTC network Paradigm featured calendar spreads and a bull put spread. ETH flows included bull call spreads and a long call financed by selling puts.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 3.63% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $121,912.08 (24hrs: +3.28%)
• ETH is up 2.43% at $3,046.59 (24hrs: +2.92%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.87% at 3,700.93 (24hrs: +4.34%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 26 bps at 2.89%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is little changed at 97.90
• Gold futures are up 0.43% at $3,378.60
• Silver futures are up 1.39% at $39.49
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.28% at 39,459.62
• Hang Seng closed up 0.26% at 24,203.32
• FTSE is up 0.36% at 8,973.18
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.64% at 5,349.14
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.63% at 44,371.51
• S&P 500 closed down 0.33% at 6,259.75
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.22% at 20,585.53
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.22% at 27,023.25
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.67% at 2,621.56
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.423%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 6,283.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.26% at 22,899.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.31% at 44,460.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 64.47% (-0.2%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02507 (0.4%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 936 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $61.42
• Total Fees: 6.52 BTC / $685,443
• CME Futures Open Interest: 153,980 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 36.4 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.3%

Technical Analysis

• The Binance-listed XRP/ETH pair is rising into an impending bearish crossover of the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages.
• The impending bear cross indicates prolonged underperformance of XRP relative to ETH.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $434.58 (+3.04%), +2.92% at $447.25 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $387.06 (-0.49%), +1.6% at $393.24
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $187.33 (-7.67%), +0.13% at $187.57
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.63 (+1.08%), +3.64% at $21.38
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.14 (+0.74%), +4.28% at $19.96
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.42 (-1.35%), +3.46% at $12.85
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.51 (-5.08%), +1.52% at $12.70
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.65 (-1.94%), +3.72% at $13.12
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.78 (-2.79%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $45.53 (-0.96%), +2.79% at $46.80
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33 (+3.81%), +0.48% at $33.16

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $1,029.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $52.34 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $204.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $5.32 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~4.41 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows Google search values for the term «bitcoin» over the past five years.
• While BTC’s price continues to set new highs, the search values remain low, highlighting little interest among the general population.
• That’s a good sign for the bull market as retail investor frenzy, represented by sharp spikes in search values, is typically observed at market tops.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin Hits $123,000, Overtakes Gold as 2025’s Top Asset (CoinDesk)
  The largest cryptocurrency hit a record high having surged 30% this year amid high U.S. interest rates, dollar weakness, delayed tariffs and surging U.S. deficits. It’s overtaken gold, up 27%, to become the best-performing asset of 2025.
• Bitcoin’s Mysterious Creator Is (Almost) the World’s 10th Richest Person (CoinDesk): Satoshi’s wallet, which made all its holdings from mining the network in its earliest days, has remained untouched since 2010, when the blockchain was run on a few laptops.
• Trump Says U.S. Will Send Patriot Missiles to Ukraine (Reuters): President Trump told reporters Sunday that Russian President Putin’s behavior made it necessary to help Ukraine defend itself and that the missiles would be paid for by the EU.
• How China’s Military Is Flexing Its Power in the Pacific (The Wall Street Journal): China’s activity, including carrier drills and airspace incursions near Taiwan, has prompted expanded U.S. deployments to Guam and the Philippines and pressure on regional allies to raise defense spending.
• Bitcoin, Ether Traders Bet Big With Tuesday’s U.S. Inflation Data Seen as Non-Event (CoinDesk): Newsletter Service LondonCryptoClub says crypto’s rally is driven by loose fiscal policy, rising global liquidity and a weak dollar, adding Trump has reversed course on deficit reduction.
• Japanese Bonds Tumble as Fiscal Worries Mount Before Election (Bloomberg): Long-term Japanese bond yields surged Monday as investors reacted to campaign spending pledges ahead of Japan’s July 20 upper house election and possible inflation forecast revisions by the central bank.

In the Ether