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Bitcoin and Nasdaq Could Stabilize as Bull Positioning in Yen Appears Stretched

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It may be a coincidence, but the recent decline in the Nasdaq and bitcoin (BTC) coincides with a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields and the strengthening of the safe-haven Japanese yen (JPY), reminiscent of the market dynamics seen in early August.

There could be a causation here, as, for decades, the low-yielding yen propped up global asset prices. The ongoing rise in the Japanese yen may have had a hand in the recent risk aversion on Wall Street and in the crypto market.

That said, the bullish positioning in the Japanese yen looks overstretched, with speculators holding record longs last week, according to the CFTC data tracked by MacroMicro. Such extreme bullish positioning, representing a collective belief in a continued move higher in the asset, sets the stage for disappointment, following, which a mass unwinding of longs unfolds, leading to a quick bearish reversal.

In other words, the yen’s rise could stall for now, offering relief to risk assets, including Nasdaq and bitcoin.

«We are now cautious on chasing further JPY strength, given stretched speculative positioning as well as strong dip-buying appetite from the domestic community,» Morgan Stanley’s G10 FX Strategy team said in a note to clients late Friday.

Strategists explained that many Japanese investors use the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) scheme to snap up foreign assets during risk-off, inadvertently slowing the pace of JPY appreciation. Additionally, the public pension system tends to go against the trend, rebalancing out of JPY assets.

«Indeed, such scenario happened in last August after a sharp appreciation of the JPY and the pronounced sell-off in equities,» strategists noted.

Let’s see if history repeats itself, triggering a renewed risk-on sentiment for Nasdaq and bitcoin. The USD/JPY pair turned up following the July and early August slide to 140, eventually rising to 158.50 by January. BTC turned up as well from the early August crash to $50,000, rising to new record highs above $108,000 in January.

At press time, bitcoin traded near $80,300, representing a month-to-date decline of nearly 5%, extending February’s 17.6% slide. At one point early Tuesday, prices dipped to $76,800, according to CoinDesk data.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY traded at 147.23, having put in a five-month low of 145.53 early Tuesday, TradingView data show.

Temporary respite?

While the stretched bull positioning and institutional flows suggest relief ahead, these factors may do little to alter the broader bullish outlook for JPY, which is backed by a narrowing U.S.-Japanese bond yield differential.

So, risk asset bulls need to be vigilant for signs of volatility in the yen and the broader financial markets.

The chart shows the spread between yields on the 10-year U.S. and Japanese government bonds.

The spread has narrowed to 2.68% in a JPY-positive manner, reaching the lowest since August 2022. Plus, it has dived out of a macro uptrend, suggesting a major bullish shift in the JPY outlook.

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ORQO Debuts in Abu Dhabi With $370M in AUM, Sets Sight on Ripple USD Yield

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ORQO Group, a new institutional asset manager with $370 million in assets under management, has launched on Tuesday with plans to build out a yield platform for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin.

The group, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, consolidates four entities from both traditional finance and digital assets: Mount TFI, a private debt specialist and licensed fund manager in Poland, Monterra Capital, a multi-strategy digital hedge fund in Malta, blockchain engineering studio Nextrope and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Soil compliant with MiCA, the EU’s crypto framework.

Already licensed in Poland and Malta, the group is seeking approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market to expand services in the Middle East, a region it sees as a hub for regulated digital asset growth.

«It’s an opportunity to become a global on-chain asset manager,» ORQO CEO Nicholas Motz said in an interview with CoinDesk. «We have all the pieces: the off-chain asset management, and on-chain, too.»

ORQO’s effort is part of a larger trend that’s been reshaping crypto markets: moving traditional financial instruments like private credit, U.S. Treasuries, or trade finance deals onto blockchain networks. The process is also known as tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). Data from rwa.xyz shows that the RWA market has grown into a nearly $30 billion sector, though it remains tiny compared to traditional finance markets such as the $2 trillion private credit sector. Still, the growth potential is immense: the tokenized RWA market could reach $18.9 trillion by 2033, a joint report by Ripple and BCG projected.

Yield platform Soil is a key piece in ORQO’s gameplan, connecting the firm’s RWA access with crypto capital capital. It aims to provide returns on stablecoins deposits from tokenized private credit, real estate and hedge fund strategies.

As part of the next stage, the firm plans to open several credit pools targeting holders of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin in the near future, allowing investors such as institutional treasuries or protocol reserves to earn a yield on their holdings.

Read more: Tokenization of Real-World Assets is Gaining Momentum, Says Bank of America

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Coinbase Policy Chief Pushes Back on Bank Warnings That Stablecoins Threaten Deposits

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Contrary to claims from the U.S. banking industry, stablecoins do not pose a risk to the financial system, according to the chief policy officer at crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Faryar Shirzad. Banks’ claims that they do are are myths crafted to defend their revenues, he wrote in a Tueday blog post.

«The central claim — that stablecoins will cause a mass outflow of bank deposits — simply doesn’t hold up,» Shirzad wrote. «Recent analysis shows no meaningful link between stablecoin adoption and deposit flight for community banks and there’s no reason to believe big banks would fare any worse.»

Larger lenders still hold trillions of dollars at the Federal Reserve and if deposits were really at risk, he argued, they would be competing harder for customer funds by offering higher interest rates rather than parking cash at the central bank

According to Shirzad, the real reason for banks’ opposition is the payments business. Stablecoins, digital tokens whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar, offer faster and cheaper ways to move money, threatening an estimated $187 billion in annual swipe-fee revenue for traditional card networks and banks.

He compared the current pushback to earlier battles against ATMs and online banking, when incumbents warned of systemic dangers but, he said, were ultimately trying to protect entrenched profits.

Shirzad also dismissed reports predicting trillions in potential outflows from deposits into stablecoins, whose total market cap is around $290 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. He stressed that stablecoins are primarily used as payment tools — for trading digital assets or sending funds abroad — not as long-term savings products.

Someone purchasing stablecoins to settle with an overseas supplier, he argued, is opting for a more efficient transaction method the going through their bank, not pulling money from a savings account.

He urged banks to embrace the technology instead of resisting it, saying stablecoin rails could cut settlement times, lower correspondent banking costs and provide round-the-clock payments. Those institutions willing to adapt, he wrote, stand to benefit from the shift.

The U.K., too, faces concerns about the effect of stablecoins on the financial industry.

The Financial Times reported Monday that the Bank of England is considering setting limits on how many «systemic» stablecoins people and companies can hold — setting thresholds as low as 10,000 pounds ($13,600) for individuals and about 10 million pounds for businesses.

Officials define systemic stablecoins as those already widely used for U.K. payments or expected to become so, and say the caps are needed to prevent sudden deposit outflows that could weaken lending and financial stability.

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Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance Unveils Connected Custody Settlement for Digital Assets

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Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, unveiled AnchorNote, a system designed for institutional clients who want to trade digital assets without moving them out of regulated custody.

The system integrates BridgePort, a network of crypto exchanges and custodians, enabling off-exchange settlement and connectivity to multiple trading venues. By keeping assets in custody while allowing real-time collateral movement, AnchorNote aims to improve capital efficiency and reduce counterparty risk, according to a press release.

The service allows clients to set up dedicated trading lines, with BridgePort handling messaging between venues and Crypto Finance acting as collateral custodian, the press release said. Institutions can manage collateral through a dashboard or integrate the service directly into their existing infrastructure using APIs, it said. APIs, or application programming interfaces, allow software programs to communicate directly with one another.

“Institutional clients face a constant tradeoff between security and capital efficiency,” said Philipp E. Dettwiler, head of custody and settlement at Crypto Finance. “AnchorNote is designed to bridge that gap.”

For traders, the setup eliminates the need for pre-funding exchanges while providing immediate access to liquidity across platforms. In practice, a Swiss bank could pledge bitcoin held in custody and deploy it instantly across multiple trading venues without moving the coins on-chain.

The rollout begins in Switzerland, with Crypto Finance planning to expand across Europe.

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