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Battered Bitcoin Looks to U.S. Fed for Support, Bank of America Predicts End of Quantitative Tightening

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As bitcoin (BTC) looks to recover from its recent downturn, observers are looking to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision to offer support, with some saying that an announcement to end the balance sheet runoff program, known as quantitative tightening, could be positive news for the market.

The Fed will announce its rate review at 18:00 UTC, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference half an hour later.

The bank is unlikely to offer any surprises on the interest rate front, retaining the present range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Therefore, the focus will be on how policymakers plan to proceed with the quantitative tightening program, given the concerns that it could affect liquidity in the system while the Treasury grapples with the ongoing debt ceiling issue. Plus, the summary of economic projections will be watched out by markets.

Since June 2022, the Fed, under the QT program, has been slowly shrinking its balance sheet, which had zoomed to a record of $9 trillion post COVID when the bank bought trillions of dollars worth of assets, including bonds, to support markets.

The minutes of the January Fed meeting showed policymakers discussed pausing or slowing the reversal of the balance sheet expansion that greased the crypto bull market of 2020-21. So, the possibility of Powell hinting the same later today cannot be ruled out.

«Late last year, Fed Chair Powell hinted that the end of QT was coming in 2025. If he mentions it in tomorrow’s [Wednesday’s] statement or press conference (I imagine someone will ask him), that would end up signalling that we’re in a new monetary regime, and that the Fed stands ready to resume additional debt purchases should QE become necessary again,» Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter said in Tuesday’s edition.

«While renewed QE [quantitive easing] unlikely any time soon, the additional liquidity from a large buyer (the Fed) coming back into the market to replace maturing holdings would be good news,» Acheson added, noting that the end of QT would be a timely move to avoid liquidity glitches in the Treasury market that faces $9 trillion in debt maturity this year.

New York Life Investments’ Economist Lauren Goodwin voiced a similar opinion, saying a slightly earlier end to the balance sheet runoff could provide the market with a dovish signal it is looking for.

Traders over decentralized betting platform Polymarket see a 100% chance that the Fed will end the QT program before May. The betting on the same will resolve in «Yes» if the central bank increases the amount of securities it holds outright week-over-week by the end of April.

Bank of America predicts end of QT

Several investment banks, including Bank of America, expect the Fed to end QT in a meeting characterized by uncertain economic outlook mainly stemming from President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

«Our rates strategists expect the statement to indicate that the Fed is pausing QT until the debt ceiling is resolved, as suggested in the January meeting minutes. They do not expect to restart after the debt ceiling is addressed, but the announcement won’t be made until later this year,» Bank of America’s March 14 client note said.

A pause in QT could put downward pressure on the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, the so-called risk-free rate, galvanizing demand for riskier assets.

Watch out for stagflation hints

Trump’s tariffs have revved up inflation risks while posing risks to economic growth, a stagflationary situation, and the Fed’s summary of economic projections (SEP) could reflect that. A nod to stagflation could mean a delay in further rate cuts, potentially limiting bitcoin gains from a QT pause announcement.

According to Acheson, chances of a stagflationary adjustment in the SEP – lower GDP projections and higher core PCE estimates, with more policymakers citing upside risks to inflation – are high.

«If, indeed, we get that stagflationary shift in official projections, the market is unlikely to be happy. To some extent, these are starting to be priced in – but confirmation that the Fed is likely to push rate cuts even further out could startle those counting on liquidity injections,» Acheson said.

The recently released U.S. retail sales and regional manufacturing indices revealed signs of economic weakness, Meanwhile, forward-looking inflation metrics have been rising, likely adjusting to Trump’s tariffs.

Bank of America put it best: «The combination of signal from the latest data and policies enacted to date should result in the Fed downgrading growth and upgrading inflation this year, a small nod to stagflation.»

«The dot plot should still show two cuts in ’25 and ’26,» the investment bank added.

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Bitcoin Enters Strongest Accumulation Phase Since January as BTC Price Passes $110K

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Bitcoin BTC has entered a strong accumulation phase across all wallet cohorts for the first time since January, signaling renewed bullish sentiment as the largest cryptocurrency trades above $110,000, an 18% gain over the past month.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score has reached its maximum value of 1.0, indicating broad-based, aggressive accumulation by investors irrespective of the amount of BTC they already hold. The metric evaluates the relative strength of buying by different wallet sizes, factoring in both their existing holdings and the amount acquired over the past 15 days. It excludes exchanges and miners to avoid distortion.

The latest accumulation wave began in early May, led by whales holding over 10,000 BTC. As the price began to climb, cohorts with smaller holdings followed, intensifying their accumulation behavior.

This marks a significant shift from the January-to-April period, when most cohorts were in reducing their holdings as bitcoin tumbled from its then-record high of $109,000 to lows around $75,000.

Trend Accumulation Score By Cohort (Glassnode)

The renewed demand is supported by options market activity, with CoinDesk Research highlighting large bullish positions. The $300,000 strike for June expiry has become the most popular call option, with $620 million in notional value, and an additional $420 million is concentrated around the $200,000 strike.

Open Interest By Strike Price (Deribit)

While bitcoin historically tends to fall after hitting an all-time high due to profit-taking, traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold often extend their rallies in similar scenarios. If bitcoin were to follow this more mature asset behavior, it may signal the beginning of a sustained bull cycle, a trend many in the market are now watching closely.

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Justin Sun Defends TRUMP After Presidential Dinner, Says ‘Memecoins Have Merit’

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The last time Justin Sun set foot in the U.S. he was Grenada’s WTO ambassador and was navigating the rocky waters of former President Biden’s crypto crackdown.

Times have changed. Now, he’s dining at an event hosted by President Donald Trump for the largest holders of his TRUMP memecoin and celebrating a regulatory breakthrough, as issuers eye a potential Tron ETF, signaling a striking reversal in crypto’s American fortunes.

Speaking exclusively with CoinDesk after the Presidential dinner, which was met by protestors, the Tron founder dismissed allegations that the token is a vehicle for bribery. He called skeptics short-sighted, arguing Trump’s embrace of crypto could spark a new era of digital asset innovation in America.

«All the haters need to really pay attention,» Sun told CoinDesk, describing Trump’s support for crypto as one of the President’s best decisions.»There are positive things happening in the industry.»

Sun’s relationship with Trump’s affiliated crypto ventures stretches back to just after last year’s election, when he bought up to $75 million worth of World Liberty Financial tokens across multiple tranches.

Shortly after Trump took office, his Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) paused a civil fraud case against Sun, alongside crypto exchange Binance; the SEC also withdrew from or dropped a dozen other cases, though it just filed a fresh civil fraud lawsuit against Unicoin earlier this week. And earlier on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Justice, which pursues criminal cases, had been investigating the Tron founder since 2021.

Read more: Where All the SEC Cases Are

Justin Sun at the $TRUMP memecoin dinner (Tron)

He described the dinner as a clear sign the U.S. is regaining its status as the crypto’s global hub, marking a sharp reversal from the Biden administration’s war on the industry, which had previously prompted crypto firms to consider offshore moves.

«At the Trump dinner, some supporters told me they were thinking of leaving the U.S. because of the Biden administration, moving to places like Hong Kong or Singapore,» Sun said. «Even Consensus started holding events outside of the United States.»

«But now they’ve changed their minds. It brings everybody back into the U.S.,» he continued.

Criticism of Trump’s decision to launch a memecoin has come fast and furious from mainstream media, including attempts to link holders of the token to white nationalism.

Sun dismissed this criticism by emphasizing that critics have every right to express their views under the First Amendment.

‘Memecoins have merit’

While protesters met the memecoin faithful who attended the TRUMP dinner, skepticism about meme coins isn’t limited to outsiders.

At a fireside chat during Consensus 2025, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy described meme coins as essentially «gambling,» questioning their longevity.

«I get why people like it,» Portnoy said. «It’s a form of gambling, it’s a Ponzi scheme. I don’t mean that in a negative way.»

Sun disagrees. Rather than viewing meme coins as gambling or Ponzi schemes, he positions them as legitimate segments of digital asset markets.

Sun pointed to tokens like DOGE and SHIB as examples of success stories that have helped onboard users into crypto. He emphasized that Tron’s goal is to support «every single piece in crypto to grow and become mainstream.»

«I totally think memecoins have merit,» Sun told CoinDesk. «It’s just like doing business. Some succeed, some go to zero. That’s entrepreneurship.»

UPDATE (May 23, 06:15 UTC): Adds details on Sun’s previous investigations and additional background.

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XRP Could Rocket to $8 as Focus Shifts to Crypto Majors After Bitcoin’s Record Run: Traders

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Attention is turning to major tokens as bitcoin (BTC) set fresh highs earlier this week, with some pointing out that institutional demand and a clear regulatory environment pave the way for strong moves among the top coins.

Bitcoin was hovering just under $111,000 during the Asian morning hours on Friday, seeing a slight pullback on profit-taking as is expected after upward moves. Cardano’s ADA, dogecoin (DOGE) and Solana’s SOL added as much as 4%, while ether (ETH), XRP, and BNB Chain’s BNB rose less than 1.5%.

The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens by market cap, rose 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

Bitget Research’s Chief Analyst Ryan Lee told CoinDesk in a Telegram message that a potential dip in bitcoin dominance could kick off a broader alt season, with high-profile names like XRP and Solana in prime position to benefit.

Lee pointed to XRP’s improving regulatory clarity and recent technical breakout patterns as reasons traders are eyeing a move toward $3–$8 in the medium term.

XRP recently formed a golden cross against BTC on the weekly chart — a historically bullish signal suggesting a long-term trend reversal may be underway. The ratio has been locked in a sideways channel since late 2020, but that may now be breaking after last month’s SEC decision not to pursue further appeals against Ripple.

SOL could climb toward $220–$300 on ETF speculation, while ADA shows potential for a breakout between $1 and $3, Lee added.

Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Thursday broadcast that the latest BTC move confirmed a robust trend supported by improved structural fundamentals and relatively low volatility.

«This rally feels more structurally sound than the last with less frothy momentum-chasing and stronger fundamental underpinnings,” the firm said, adding that the brief dip following BTC’s initial record high break triggered put-side profit-taking, but buyers were “quick to reload on the upside.”

Still, broader macro risks remain in play. Renewed tariff concerns, rising U.S. yields, and a stronger dollar could all inject volatility into the system, especially for altcoins, QCP said. Traders are urged to stay selective, focusing on assets with strong fundamentals and clear regulatory narratives.

Meanwhile, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich shared in an email that bitcoin’s sentiment index is hovering just below “extreme greed” as of Friday, a sign that the rally may still have room to run in the coming days.

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