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Asia Morning Briefing: Risk of Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict Keeps BTC Around 105K Says QCP

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Asia opens the trading week, BTC is changing hands at around $ 105,000, stuck in this range due to market uncertainty about whether the Israel-Iran conflict will escalate into a broader regional war, according to a recent note from trading firm QCP.
QCP wrote in a Friday note published on Telegram that risk reversals have «flipped decisively,» with front-end BTC puts now commanding premiums of up to 5 volatility points over equivalent calls, a clear indicator of heightened investor anxiety and increased hedging against downside risks.
The firm said that despite this defensive shift in positioning, BTC has demonstrated notable resilience. Even amid recent volatility, which saw over $1 billion in long positions liquidated across major crypto assets, on-chain data shows that institutional buying continues to provide meaningful support.
QCP emphasizes that markets remain «stuck in a bind,» awaiting clarity on geopolitical outcomes, and warns that the digital asset complex will likely remain tightly linked to headline-driven sentiment shifts for the foreseeable future.
With all that in mind, however, Glassnode data provides some reassurance to investors concerned about longer-term directionality.
Although recent volatility underscores short-term anxiety, bitcoin’s current cycle gain of 656%, while lower than previous bull markets, is notably impressive given its significantly larger market capitalization today.
Previous cycles returned 1076% (2015–2018) and 1007% (2018–2022), suggesting investor demand is still pacing closely with BTC’s maturation, even as near-term macro jitters dominate market sentiment.
Galaxy Research Says OP_Return Debate Wasn’t That Important
The OP_Return debate was less important than what a «loud but small group of critics» wanted everyone to think, Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn wrote in a recent note.
Thorn described critics’ reactions as «wild accusations of the ‘death of Bitcoin'» and argued that such hyperbole was misplaced given historically low mempool congestion.
On-chain data shows that the mempool is virtually empty compared to a year ago, and the notion that a congested blockchain is suffocating BTC, as was the prevailing narrative in 2023, now appears significantly overstated.
In the note, Thorn further highlighted the irony of labeling arbitrary data as «spam,» reminding observers that Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, famously included arbitrary text, the «chancellor on brink of second bailout» headline, in the Bitcoin’s blockchain’s very first block.
Instead, Thorn argued, Bitcoin’s community attention would be better focused on potential upgrades like CheckTemplateVerify (CTV), a proposed opcode enabling strict spending conditions («covenants»).
«We continue to believe [CTV] is a conservative but powerful opcode that would greatly enhance the ability to build better, safer methods of custody,» he wrote, noting that around 20% of Bitcoin’s hashrate already signaled support for the upgrade.
Bitcoin upgrades require extensive consensus-building, reflecting its open-source ethos, and Thorn emphasized that cautious, deliberate evolution remains critical for broader adoption and scalability.
ByBit Launches Byreal, a Solana-Native Decentralized Exchange
Bybit is entering the decentralized exchange space with Byreal, an on-chain trading platform built on Solana, Ben Zhou, Bybit’s CEO announced via X over the weekend.
Byreal’s testnet is scheduled to launch on June 30, with the mainnet rollout expected later this year. Zhou said that Byreal is designed to combine centralized exchange features such as high liquidity and fast execution with the transparency and composability of DeFi. The platform will also include a fair launchpad system and curated yield vaults linked to Solana-native assets like bbSOL.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin held near $105,000 after more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, led by a $200 million long on Binance, as rising Israel-Iran tensions triggered a sharp selloff, a flight from altcoins, and a brief but intense bout of volatility.
- ETH: Ethereum rose 2% to around $2,550 after finding strong support at $2,510, showing resilience amid Israel-Iran tensions and broader market volatility, with continued institutional inflows supporting the uptrend.
- Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.87 percent, as investors weighed escalating Israel-Iran tensions, while oil and gold prices surged on safe haven demand.
- Gold: Gold climbed to $3,447 in early Asian trading Monday, hitting a one-month high as Middle East tensions and rising expectations of a September Fed rate cut outweighed strong U.S. consumer sentiment data.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
Business
Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.
The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.
Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.
The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.
Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.
«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.
Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says
Business
Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.
The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.
Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.
The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.
Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.
«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.
Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says
Business
Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.
The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.
On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.
The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.
Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.
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