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Asia Morning Briefing: Polymarket Bettors Foresee $5K ETH by End of August

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Asia begins its trading day, ETH is trading above $4600, up 10% in the last 24 hours, as the possibility of a rate cut in September works its way through the market. Some traders see it likely that ETH could quickly challenge its all-time high of $4876 set in 2021.

Polymarket bettors are going a step further; they believe that $5000 is possible before the end of August, and they are also giving a 28% chance of the asset’s price crossing $5800 before the month ends.

The surge has helped pull bitcoin dominance down from 65% to 59% as traders rotate into altcoins.

In a recent report, analysts at Glassnode wrote that ETH is now nearing the +1 standard deviation “Active Realized Price” band around $4.7K, a level that has triggered heavy selling in past cycles.

But behind the scenes, there’s a growing liquidity sink that might weigh heavily on ETH’s next phase of growth.

A new CryptoQuant report shows that Ethereum is increasingly serving as a liquidity source for TRON’s USDT ecosystem.

On Aug. 9, CryptoQuant data shows that a record $7.7 million worth of ETH was bridged to TRON and converted into USDT, while June 25 saw $19 million worth of ERC20 tokens, mostly USDC, make the same move.

Inflows from TRON back to Ethereum remain minimal, highlighting a one-way flow of value that supports TRON’s stablecoin economy but siphons liquidity from Ethereum’s native DeFi activity.

Over time, persistent outflows can weigh on spot demand and reduce Ethereum’s ongoing fee revenue and staking rewards as more of the stablecoin economy clears elsewhere.

If this trend persists, Ethereum’s role could increasingly resemble that of a wholesale funding layer, powering liquidity for rival networks rather than capturing the transactional activity itself.

That dynamic may not derail the current rally in the short term, but it could limit the sustainability of higher valuations if capital flight toward faster, cheaper settlement layers like TRON continues unchecked.

But for now, the market has its eyes on $5K ETH.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin holds $119,943 (+0.4%) with bullish momentum intact, though resistance looms at $123K amid ETF outflows and ETH’s rally, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.

ETH: ETH is trading above $4600 as the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut looms large.

Gold: Gold edged up to around $3,350 as U.S. inflation data reinforced Fed rate cut bets, while easing U.S.-China trade tensions limited gains.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs as July CPI data met expectations, boosting bets on a September Fed rate cut and lifting tech stocks.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1% after a record close Tuesday.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack

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Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.

On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.

The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.

With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.

The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.

Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.

Memecoins drop, broader market bid

SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.

The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.

According to the technical analysis model:

  • SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
  • The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
  • Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
  • Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
  • Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.

Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment

Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.

A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.

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Fed Rate Decision, MKR-SKY Conversion Deadline: Crypto Week Ahead

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The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to dominate markets, both crypto and traditional, in the coming week. Traders are positioned for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points when the Fed announces its decision on Sept. 17, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.

What to Watch

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • Sept. 16: Brazil July unemployment rate Est. N/A (Prev. 5.8%).
    • Sept. 16: Canada August headline CPI YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 1.7%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.3%); core YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 2.6%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%).
    • Sept. 16: U.K. July unemployment rate Est. 4.7%.
    • Sept. 17: U.K. August headline CPI YoY Est. 3.9%. MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%); core YoY Est. 3.7%, MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.2%).
    • Sept. 17: Canada benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 2.75%) followed by a press conference.
    • Sept. 17: The Fed’s FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates. Est: 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% followed by a press conference.
    • Sept. 17: Brazil benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 15%).
    • Sept. 18: Bank of England decision on U.K. interest rates. Est: unchanged at 4%.
    • Sept. 19: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision. Est: unchanged at 0.5%.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 18: Lite Strategy (MEIP), pre-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Curve DAO is voting to changes to donation-enabled Twocrypto contracts. Voting ends Sept. 16.
    • Sept. 16: Aster Network to host a community call.
    • MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18
    • Sept. 18, 6 a.m.: Mantle to host Mantle State of Mind, a monthly townhall series.
    • Sept. 16, 12 p.m.:Kava to host a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
    • Sept. 23: SwissBorg to make a live announcement.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.09 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $18.06 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $48.16 million.
    • Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million.
    • Sept. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $89.8 million
    • Sept. 20: Velo (VELO) to unlock 13.63% of its circulating supply worth $43.39 million.
    • Sept. 20: KAITO (KAITO) to unlock 3.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 15: OpenLedger (OPENLEDGER) to be listed on Crypto.com.
    • Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the delayed upgrade penalty takes effect.
    • Sept. 20: Reserve Rights (RSR) to conduct a token burn.
    • Sept. 22: Falcon Finance to host community sale on Buidlpad.

Conferences

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Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group

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The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday that cryptocurrency groups are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to scrap proposals limiting the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can own.

The group warned that the rules would leave the UK with stricter oversight than the U.S. or the European Union (EU).

According to the FT, BoE officials plan to impose caps of 10,000 british pounds to 20,000 british pounds ($13,600–$27,200) for individuals and about 10 million british pounds ($13.6 million) for businesses on all systemic stablecoins, defined as tokens already widely used for payments in the U.K. or expected to be in the future.

The central bank has argued the restrictions are needed to prevent outflows of deposits from banks that could weaken credit provision and financial stability.

The FT cited Sasha Mills, the BoE’s executive director for financial market infrastructure, as saying the limits would mitigate risks from sudden deposit withdrawals and the scaling of new systemic payment systems.

However, industry executives told the FT the plan is unworkable.

Tom Duff Gordon, Coinbase’s vice president of international policy, said “imposing caps on stablecoins is bad for U.K. savers, bad for the City and bad for sterling,” adding that no other major jurisdiction has imposed such limits.

Simon Jennings of the UK cryptoasset business council said enforcement would be nearly impossible without new systems such as digital IDs. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association told the FT that limits “make no sense” because there are no caps on cash or bank accounts.

The U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act in July, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets licensing, reserve and redemption standards for issuers, with no caps on individual holdings. The European Union has also moved ahead with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is now fully in effect across the bloc.

Stablecoin-specific rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens took effect on June 30, 2024, followed by broader provisions for crypto-assets and service providers on Dec. 30, 2024. Like the U.S. approach, MiCA does not cap holdings, instead focusing on reserves, governance and oversight by national regulators.

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