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Asia Morning Briefing: Nvidia’s Rally to $4 Trillion Might Have Helped BTC, But Correlation Is Waning

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Nvidia’s ascent to a historic $4 trillion market cap, the first-ever company to achieve this milestone, might be exactly the catalyst bitcoin (BTC) needed to break out of its tightly coiled trading range and surge toward new all-time highs, addressing analysts’ concerns that the crypto market lacked a clear driver.

BTC is currently trading at $110,900, according to CoinDesk market data, after rallying during the U.S. trading hours to over $111,000 and briefly touching all-time high.

Glassnode analysts had previously described Bitcoin’s recent market activity as quiet, characterized by declining on-chain transactions, minimal miner revenues, and suppressed fees.

Rather than interpreting these factors as bearish indicators, Glassnode highlighted a mature market increasingly dominated by large-value institutional transactions and cautious long-term holders.

All this being said, the correlation between Nvidia and BTC might be short-lived as data suggests its weakening.

While the correlation between the GPU giant and BTC peaked above 0.80 during the AI-driven euphoria of early 2024, and the three-month average remains relatively strong at 0.69, the latest data shows a dip to around 0.36, indicating a possible decoupling as investor focus shifts.

Still, Nvidia’s milestone seemed to serve as a potential trigger for BTC breakout from weeks of price inertia.

However, it’s possible that Nvidia’s share prices might correct at some point, given its volatile nature. But this weakening correlation means that BTC price might remain resilient – when that day comes.

(TradingView)

Australia Begins Real-World CBDC Tests

Australia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiative, Project Acacia, has entered its next phase as the Reserve Bank of Australia names 24 industry participants selected to trial real-world applications of digital money in tokenized asset markets.

Spearheaded by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre, the project brings together major banks, fintechs, and infrastructure firms to trial programmable digital money in real-world financial workflows.

The pilots will explore settlement across asset classes such as bonds, carbon credits, private markets, and trade receivables.

Nineteen projects will involve live transactions, while five will remain at the proof-of-concept stage. ASIC has granted targeted regulatory relief to allow testing with real assets, continuing its approach of enabling responsible innovation in digital finance.

While Australia is pushing ahead with further CBDC development, the Bank of Canada has shifted its focus away from developing a retail CBDC, amid mounting criticism that such a system could enable government surveillance by allowing authorities to monitor every transaction, unlike the anonymity offered by cash.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin hovered near $109,000 as institutions defended key support levels amid light resistance at $110,000, showing resilience despite dormant wallet activity and regulatory uncertainty, while macro conditions such as a weakening dollar and steady rate cut odds bolstered corporate appetite for risk assets, according to the CoinDesk market insights bot.

ETH: ETH closed a volatile 23-hour session up 2.8 percent, with strong institutional volume and resilience above $2,650 signaling continued bullish positioning amid market uncertainty.

Gold: Gold prices extended losses for a second day, hovering near $3,285 as reduced July Fed rate cut bets, a strong U.S. dollar, and firm Treasury yields pressured the metal, though trade tariff concerns and upcoming FOMC minutes helped limit further downside.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Thursday as investors weighed the Bank of Korea’s rate hold and U.S. President Trump’s move to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, citing unfair trade and retaliation over Bolsonaro’s prosecution, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.45%.

S&P 500: Stock futures were mostly flat Wednesday evening after the S&P 500 clawed back some losses from this week’s tariff-driven decline, with Dow futures slipping just 37 points.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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Alibaba Founder-Backed Ant Group to Integrate Circle’s USDC on Its Blockchain

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The international arm of Ant Group, the company backed by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, plans to bring Circle’s USDC stablecoin onto its proprietary blockchain.

The rollout will start once U.S. regulators certify the dollar-pegged token under the new federal rules, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the deal.

The move would give USDC a link to a network that processed more than $1 trillion in global payments last year, a third of them settled on-chain. That scale could make Ant the largest overseas corporate user of a U.S.-issued stablecoin.

Ant International is also applying for stablecoin licenses in Singapore, Hong Kong and Luxembourg, according to the report. The group wants regulated digital dollars, central bank digital currencies and tokenized bank deposits to sit side by side on its platform.

The company’s blockchain currently supports tokenized assets from various financial institutions and has reportedly been working with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on the country’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital yuan.

Circle shares rose nearly 3.8% in pre-market trading to $208.

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This One Metric Suggests Bitcoin Has Plenty of Room Left to Run

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Bitcoin (BTC) reached new all-time highs just above $112,000 on Wednesday, although the increase was only marginal compared to the previous peak. Despite the wave of bullish corporate adoption, with public companies adding bitcoin to their balance sheets.

On-chain data suggests that bitcoin has more room to run when compared to previous cycle highs. One useful metric in this analysis is the MVRV Z-Score, which helps evaluate whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to what could be considered its fair value.

Unlike a traditional z-score, the MVRV Z-Score uniquely compares the market value to the realized value. When the market value, calculated as the network’s valuation based on the spot price multiplied by supply, sits significantly above the realized value, which reflects the cumulative capital inflow into the asset, this has historically signaled market tops [red zone]. Conversely, when the market value is well below the realized value, it has often indicated market bottoms [green zone].

The MVRV Z-Score is defined as the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation of market cap, expressed as [market cap minus realized cap] divided by the standard deviation of market cap. The standard deviation is calculated cumulatively from the first available data point to the present day, making it a long-term measure.

Currently, the MVRV Z-Score sits at 2.4. In past bear market lows, bitcoin has registered scores below zero, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Meanwhile, cycle tops have historically occurred when the score reaches 7 or higher, as was the case in 2017 and 2021, according to Glassnode data.

Although this is just one data point, it indicates that bitcoin still has significant potential for further upside compared to previous cycles.

MVRV-Z Score (Glassnode)

Read more: This Chart Points to a 30% Bitcoin Price Boom Ahead: Technical Analysis

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Australia’s Central Bank to Explore Developing Wholesale Tokenized Asset Markets

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will explore the development of wholesale tokenized asset markets alongside an array of industry participants.

«Project Acacia» will use stablecoins, pilot wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) and bank deposit tokens in 24 use cases of tokenizing a range of asset classes, such as fixed income and private markets.

Tokenization refers to the process of minting assets such as bonds and equities as tokens that can be bought, sold and traded on blockchains, with the aim of making processes faster, cheaper and more transparent.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is also providing regulatory relief in order to streamline the pilot, which will involve the testing of tokenized asset transaction between participants and other selected financial institutions, the RBA announced on Thursday.

Issuance of pilot wholesale CBDC for testing the use cases will take place on different blockchain platforms, such as Hedera and R3 Corda.

Participants in Project Acacia include Fireblocks, Northern Trust and Australian banks Commonwealth Bank, Australia and New Zealand Banking Corporation (ANZ) and Westpac.

The project is the a sign of the Australian government’s plans to integrate digital assets into its economy being put into practise.

The Australian Treasury published a whitepaper in March, describing how the government planned to embrace tokenization, real-world assets and wholesale CBDCs to make financial markets more efficient.

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