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Asia Morning Briefing: ETH On-Chain Metrics Signal Potential Bull Run Ahead

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Keep an eye on ETH, is what fund manager March Zheng is telling investors.

As Asia begins its business day, ETH is trading above $2,500, down 0.4%. While this might not seem like a lot in the volatile world of crypto, ETH has defied the odds and is up 40% on-month, which is impressive because its performance is only matched by memecoin stalwarts like PEPE, and Decentralized Finance lending protocols like AAVE. The latter’s performance has helped push up Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethereum past $60 billion.

Zheng, the co-founder and managing partner of Bizantine Capital, is bullish on ETH because he argues that Ethereum might dominate as the primary layer-one blockchain due to its superior scalability compared to Solana, thanks to the recent Pectra upgrade, and persistently lower inflation rate than Bitcoin BTC.

«It may be reaching an inflection point where both of these leads continue to grow,» Zheng said in a note to CoinDesk. «It will be a very interesting year.»

Still, there are potential limits to ETH’s growth story this year. Bettors on Polymarket are only giving it a 26% chance of breaking its all-time high of $4,868 in November 2021.

Meanwhile, CoinDesk Market Insight Bot notes institutional interest in Ethereum is growing sharply, with exchange balances dropping to seven-year lows and ETH-focused investment products seeing significant inflows, signaling bullish long-term accumulation.

(CoinDesk)

Enterprises are Shying Away from Decentralized AI

Artificial Intelligence tokens are one of the year’s growth stories, with the market cap of the token category worth over $27 billion according to CoinGecko data.

But there’s a problem, as analyst Teng Yang from the Crypto-AI research house Chain of Thought argued in a thread on X.

The decentralized compute infrastructure, known as Decentralized Compute Networks (DCN) needed to make decentralized AI a reality, isn’t keeping pace.

In Semianalysis’ March 2025 rankings of GPU cloud providers, decentralized compute platforms barely registered. Only Akash and Prime Intellect appeared, stuck at the very bottom of the list.

Most decentralized platforms didn’t even make the cut, underscoring the deep challenges these projects face in competing with centralized hyperscalers like AWS or Google Cloud.

Coordination, the ability to organize scattered computing resources into a seamless service, remains a critical weak spot.

Unlike centralized services, decentralized platforms struggle with basic tasks such as predictable job routing, efficient data transfers, and built-in fault tolerance, essentials for enterprises accustomed to the streamlined functionality of Kubernetes or Slurm – software tools that enterprises use to easily manage and schedule large computing tasks.

Security and technical reliability present additional hurdles. Most decentralized networks lack essential certifications, such as SOC2 or ISO 27001, leaving their systems prone to fragile networking, storage inconsistencies, and frequent latency spikes.

As Yan notes, decentralized networks suffer from dashboards that feel cumbersome, unclear payment systems, and confusing onboarding processes, failing the straightforward «spin-up-and-scale» benchmark enterprises expect.

Finally, economic sustainability remains elusive. Current decentralized networks are overly reliant on temporary token incentives, risking collapse when emissions slow down or halt altogether. Aethir’s token, after all, is up 70% in the last month which adds inflationary pressures if someone is subscribing to cloud services denominated in ATH – its eponymous token.

Yan argues decentralized platforms don’t need to entirely replace AWS, but they must at least be stable, economical, and easy enough to compete meaningfully. Until then, the ambitious growth of decentralized AI will remain dependent on centralized computing infrastructure.

News Roundup

Trump Organization Says $TRUMP Wallet Isn’t Them

The Trump Organization has distanced itself from a newly announced cryptocurrency wallet called the «$TRUMP Wallet,» despite promotional branding explicitly linked to the former president, CoinDesk previously reported.

A spokesperson stated unequivocally that the organization «knows nothing» about the wallet, contradicting announcements made by Magic Eden CEO Jack Lu, who had confirmed a partnership via social media. Donald Trump Jr. and Barron Trump separately clarified that the Trump Organization has «zero involvement,» although Trump Jr. mentioned a forthcoming official wallet from World Liberty Financial, a separate stablecoin project associated with the family.

The $TRUMP Wallet’s website is currently active, inviting users to a waitlist while promising digital asset trading features, yet provides no substantial technical details or release timeline. The confusion around the project highlights Trump’s controversial but ongoing entanglement with crypto, previously illustrated by ventures such as World Liberty Financial and memecoins like Trump Coin and Melania Coin.

Revolut Could Soon Offer Crypto Derivatives

Revolut is exploring an expansion into cryptocurrency derivatives, as indicated by a new job listing seeking a general manager to launch and scale a related offering, CoinDesk previously reported.

This development follows the successful rollout of its professional-focused crypto exchange, first in the U.K. in May 2024 and later across the European Union.

The U.K. market for crypto derivatives has recently gained traction, highlighted by the launch of GFO-X, the country’s first FCA-regulated, centrally-cleared derivatives platform. Additionally, Galaxy’s U.K. subsidiary, led by Mike Novogratz, received FCA approval in April, positioning itself to compete in the growing market segment.

Market Movements:

  • BTC: Bitcoin rose 2% above $105K, buoyed by MicroStrategy’s aggressive $84 billion Bitcoin acquisition plan, despite lingering geopolitical concerns and long-term risk questions.
  • ETH: ETH established a clear uptrend amid strong volume spikes, facing firm resistance at $2,651 and solidifying support near $2,618-$2,620.
  • Gold: Gold dipped 0.51% to around $3,356 per ounce Tuesday as a rebounding dollar and rising U.S. job openings prompted traders to rotate into riskier assets.
  • Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.83% Wednesday, leading Asia-Pacific markets higher after Wall Street’s tech-driven rally powered by Nvidia.
  • S&P 500: The S&P 500 climbed 0.58% Tuesday to 5,970.37, boosted by Nvidia gains and investor optimism over U.S. trade deals, as Deutsche Bank raised its year-end target to 6,550.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

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HBAR Retreats Amid Constrained Range Trading and Diminishing Volumes

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HBAR spent much of the past 23 hours locked in a narrow range, oscillating between $0.23 and $0.24 in what amounted to just 2% volatility. The token briefly touched session highs at $0.24 on Sept. 16 around 18:00 UTC before sliding lower, ultimately finding repeated support near $0.23. Multiple rebound attempts from that level throughout Sept. 17’s morning trading hinted at a potential price floor, though conviction remained limited.

Market activity tapered alongside the price drift. Trading volumes fell steadily after an early spike, underscoring weakening participation and suggesting that bullish momentum has largely faded. The constrained range and muted volatility reinforced the impression of indecision, with buyers and sellers unwilling to press for a breakout.

The final hour of the observed period offered a sharper display of market sentiment. At 13:33 UTC on Sept. 17, HBAR sold off abruptly from $0.24 to $0.23, accompanied by an outsized 2.56 million in volume just three minutes later. Yet the coin staged a measured recovery, climbing back to end near session highs, encapsulating the day’s push and pull between sellers and opportunistic dip buyers.

Overall, HBAR slipped 1% across the 23-hour window. While the establishment of support around $0.23 provides some stability, declining volumes and sustained downward pressure leave the market vulnerable. The swift sell-off and subsequent rebound illustrate the uncertainty still shaping HBAR’s outlook, with bearish sentiment prevailing but tempered by signs of technical resilience.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Assessment

  • Price action demonstrated consolidation within a 2% range between $0.23-$0.24 resistance and support thresholds.
  • Volume contracted from 45.7 million to 4.7 million tokens indicating deteriorating market participation.
  • Multiple rebounds at $0.23 support level suggest potential price floor establishment.
  • Acute sell-off at 13:33 followed by recovery indicates volatile intraday sentiment fluctuations.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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The Protocol: ETH Exit Queue Gridlocks As Validators Pile Up

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Welcome to The Protocol, CoinDesk’s weekly wrap of the most important stories in cryptocurrency tech development. I’m Margaux Nijkerk, a reporter at CoinDesk.

In this issue:

  • Ethereum Faces Validator Bottleneck With 2.5M ETH Awaiting Exit
  • Is Ethereum’s DeFi Future on L2s? Liquidity, Innovation Say Perhaps Yes
  • Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments
  • American Express Introduces Blockchain-Based ‘Travel Stamps’
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Network News

ETHEREUM VALIDATOR EXIT QUEUE FACES BOTTLENECK: Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system is facing its largest test yet. As of mid-September, roughly 2.5 million ETH — valued at roughly $11.25 billion — is waiting to leave the validator set, according to validator queue dashboards. The backlog pushed exit wait times to more than 46 days on Sept. 14, the longest in Ethereum’s short staking history, dashboards show. The last peak, in August, put the exit queue at 18 days. The initial spark came on Sept. 9, when Kiln, a large infrastructure provider, chose to exit all of its validators as a safety precaution. The move, triggered by recent security incidents including the NPM supply-chain attack and the SwissBorg breach, pushed around 1.6 million ETH into the queue at once. Though unrelated to Ethereum’s staking protocol itself, the hacks rattled confidence enough for Kiln to hit pause, highlighting how events in the broader crypto ecosystem can cascade into Ethereum’s validator dynamics. In a blog post from staking provider Figment, Senior Analyst Benjamin Thalman noted that the current exit queue build up isn’t only about security. After ETH has rallied more than 160% since April, some stakers are simply taking profits. Others, especially institutional players, are shifting their portfolios’ exposure. At the same time, the number of validators entering the Ethereum staking ecosystem has been steadily rising. Ethereum’s churn limit, which is a protocol safeguard that caps how many validators can enter or exit over a certain time period, is currently capped at 256 ETH per epoch (about 6.4 minutes), restricting how quickly validators can join or leave the network. The churn limit is meant to keep the network stable. With more than 2.5M ETH lined up, stakers on Sept. 16 face 44 days before even reaching the cooldown step. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

IS L2 DEFI EATING AT ETHEREUM’S L1 DEFI?: Ethereum is in the midst of a paradox. Even as ether hit record highs in late August, decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on Ethereum’s layer-1 (L1) looks muted compared to its peak in late 2021. Fees collected on mainnet in August were just $44 million, a 44% drop from the prior month. Meanwhile, layer-2 (L2) networks like Arbitrum and Base are booming, with $20 billion and $15 billion in total value locked (TVL) respectively. This divergence raises a crucial question: are L2s cannibalizing Ethereum’s DeFi activity, or is the ecosystem evolving into a multi-layered financial architecture? AJ Warner, the chief strategy officer of Offchain Labs, the developer firm behind layer-2 Arbitrum, argues that the metrics are more nuanced than just layer-2 DeFi chipping at the layer 1.In an interview with CoinDesk, Warner said that focusing solely on TVL misses the point, and that Ethereum is increasingly functioning as crypto’s “global settlement layer,” a foundation for high-value issuance and institutional activity. Products like Franklin Templeton’s tokenized funds or BlackRock’s BUIDL product launch directly on Ethereum L1 — activity that isn’t fully captured in DeFi metrics but underscores Ethereum’s role as the bedrock of crypto finance. Ethereum as a layer-1 blockchain is the secure but relatively slow and expensive base network. Layer-2s are scaling networks built on top of it, designed to handle transactions faster and at a fraction of the cost before ultimately settling back to Ethereum for security. That’s why they’ve become so appealing to traders and builders alike. Metrics like TVL, the amount of crypto deposited in DeFi protocols, highlight this shift as activity is moved to L2s where lower fees and quicker confirmations make everyday DeFi far more practical. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

EF STARTS DECENTRALIZED AI TEAM: The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis. Crapis, who announced the initiative on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems. The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects. Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption. In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies. — Siamak Masnavi Read more.

AMERICAN EXPRESS DABBLES IN BLOCKCHAIN TRAVEL STAMPS: American Express has introduced Ethereum-based «travel stamps» to create a commemorative record of travel experiences. The travel experience tokens, which are technically NFTs (ERC 721 tokens), are minted and stored on Coinbase’s Base network, said Colin Marlowe, vice president of Emerging Partnerships at Amex Digital Labs. The travel stamps, which can be collected anytime a traveler uses their card, are not tradable NTF tokens, Marlowe said, and neither do they function like blockchain-based loyalty points — at least for the time being. “It’s a valueless ERC-721, so technically an NFT, but we just didn’t brand it as such. We wanted to speak to it in a way that was natural for the travel experience itself, and so we talk about these things as stamps, and they’re represented as tokens,” Marlowe said in an interview. “As an identifier and representation of history the stamps could create interesting partnership angles over time. We weren’t trying to sell these or sort of generate any like short term revenue. The angle is to make a travel experience with Amex feel really rich, really different, and kind of set it apart,” he said. Fireblocks is also involved, supporting Amex as its Wallet-as-a-Service provider for the passport product, a Fireblocks representative said. The Amex travel app also includes a range of tools for travels and Centurion Lounge upgrades, the company said. – Ian Allison Read more.

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In Other News

  • Blockchain-based real world asset (RWA) specialists Centrifuge and Plume have launched the Anemoy Tokenized Apollo Diversified Credit Fund (ACRDX), backed by a $50 million anchor investment from Grove, a credit infrastructure protocol within the Sky Ecosystem. The fund gives blockchain investors exposure to Apollo’s diversified global credit strategy, spanning direct corporate lending, asset-backed lending and dislocated credit, a type of mispriced debt due to market stress and lack of liquidity. ACRDX will be distributed through Plume’s Nest Credit vaults under the ticker nACRDX, making the strategy accessible to institutional investors on-chain. By packaging Apollo’s portfolio in tokenized form, the fund aims to lower entry barriers and increase transparency for investors seeking exposure to private credit markets, according to a press release. — Ian Allison Read more.
  • Google is taking a step toward merging artificial intelligence (AI) and digital money, rolling out a new open-source protocol that lets AI applications send and receive payments, which includes support for stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, according to a press release. To incorporate stablecoin rails, Google teamed up with the U.S.-based crypto exchange Coinbase, which has been developing its own AI-integrated payments infrastructure. The company also worked with the Ethereum Foundation and coordinated with more than 60 other organizations, including Salesforce, American Express and Etsy, to cover traditional finance use cases. The move builds on Google’s earlier work to establish a standard for “AI agents.” These digital agents may eventually handle complex tasks, such as negotiating mortgages or shopping for clothes, without direct human input. — Oliver Knight Read more.
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Regulatory and Policy

  • Contrary to claims from the U.S. banking industry, stablecoins do not pose a risk to the financial system, according to the chief policy officer at crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Faryar Shirzad. Banks’ claims that they do are are myths crafted to defend their revenues, he wrote in a blog post. «The central claim — that stablecoins will cause a mass outflow of bank deposits — simply doesn’t hold up,» Shirzad wrote. «Recent analysis shows no meaningful link between stablecoin adoption and deposit flight for community banks and there’s no reason to believe big banks would fare any worse.» Larger lenders still hold trillions of dollars at the Federal Reserve and if deposits were really at risk, he argued, they would be competing harder for customer funds by offering higher interest rates rather than parking cash at the central bank. According to Shirzad, the real reason for banks’ opposition is the payments business. Stablecoins, digital tokens whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar, offer faster and cheaper ways to move money, threatening an estimated $187 billion in annual swipe-fee revenue for traditional card networks and banks. He compared the current pushback to earlier battles against ATMs and online banking, when incumbents warned of systemic dangers but, he said, were ultimately trying to protect entrenched profits. — Jesse Hamilton Read more.
  • U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said crypto’s time has come, pledging to modernize the U.S. securities rulebook and expand “Project Crypto” to bring markets on-chain. Speaking in Paris on Sept. 10 at the OECD’s inaugural Roundtable on Global Financial Markets, Atkins said the SEC is shifting away from enforcement-driven policymaking and will provide clear rules for tokens, custody, and trading platforms. “Policy will no longer be set by ad hoc enforcement actions,” he said, calling the new approach “a golden age of financial innovation on U.S. soil.” Atkins said most tokens are not securities and promised bright-line rules for determining when crypto assets fall under SEC oversight. He said entrepreneurs must be able to raise capital on-chain without “endless legal uncertainty” and pledged a framework for platforms that integrate trading, lending, and staking under one license. Custody rules will also be updated to allow investors and intermediaries multiple options. — Siamak Masnavi Read more.
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Bullish Shares Rise 5% Ahead of Earnings After Crypto Exchange Secures New York BitLicense

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Shares of Bullish (BLSH) rose 5% to $53.12 on Tuesday after the crypto platform secured a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, a crucial regulatory approval that opens the door to offering spot trading and custody services to institutional clients in New York.

With the license, Bullish’s U.S. arm — Bullish US Operations LLC — can now legally serve advanced traders in the financial capital of the U.S., an important step in the company’s push to expand domestically. Until now, Bullish was only regulated in Germany, Hong Kong and Gibraltar. Bullish’s global parent is also CoinDesk’s parent company.

The license comes just a day after Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest significantly increased its exposure to the company. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) acquired 120,609 shares while ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) picked up 40,574 shares, together worth about $8.21 million.

Bullish, which runs a trading platform aimed at institutional investors, will report second-quarter earnings after markets close on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) initiated coverage on the company with a «market perform» rating and a $55 price target. The firm called Bullish “a rare public play” on a crypto exchange built for institutions and noted that its entry into the U.S. could drive growth. KBW sees domestic expansion as a key catalyst.

Bullish debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in August through a direct listing. Its stock surged to $104 on opening day before closing at $68. Since then, shares have fallen 22%, with today’s BitLicense announcement providing a boost.

If Bullish succeeds in expanding its footprint in the U.S., it could emerge as a legitimate competitor to Coinbase, according to brokerage firm Bernstein. The firm said success will depend on the platform’s ability to execute on its U.S. launch plans, currently targeted for 2026, Bernstein said.

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