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Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Reclaims 100K as Markets Shrug off Iran Strike

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Asia begins the trading week, BTC is trading above $100,500 as the initial volatility from news over the weekend that the U.S. struck some of Iran’s nuclear facilities begins to subside.

While prices briefly dipped below six figures on Sunday in a risk-off reaction, markets have since stabilized. Equity futures are flat, and gold is up only marginally, suggesting that traders are not yet pricing in a broader escalation.

The lack of follow-through in traditional markets may reflect expectations that Iran’s response will be contained or delayed, rather than immediate and destabilizing.

Crude oil is holding its gains near $76 per barrel after spiking nearly 4% Sunday evening on fears that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. Still, commentary from U.S. officials and muted early-week trading suggest that investors remain in a wait-and-see mode.

In crypto markets, altcoins that had mirrored BTC’s weekend drop, like ETH, XRP, and SOL, are also clawing back losses.

For now, the market appears to be treating the U.S.-Iran clash as a geopolitical flashpoint, not a structural break.

(CoinDesk)

OKX Considering U.S. IPO: Report

Crypto exchange OKX is considering a public listing in the U.S., according to a report from The Information.

Earlier this year, the exchange announced a U.S. expansion after settling with the Department of Justice over accusations that it operated in the country without a money transmitter license.

Bullish, a competitor to OKX, and the parent company of CoinDesk, is said to be considering an IPO given the appetite investors have for companies with exposure to digital assets.

OKX told CoinDesk it had no comment on the matter.

Polymarket Bettors Less Certain About Second U.S. Strike on Iran

Polymarket bettors are cooling to the idea that the U.S will hit Iran a second time before the end of the month.

The ‘yes’ side of a contract asking if the U.S. will conduct another military action on Iran by June 30 is now trading at 54%, from 74% in the hours after the initial strike on Iranian nuclear sites.

There appears to be a growing market belief that deconfliction – on both sides – is on the agenda, as evidenced by another contract asking bettors about the likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently trading at 49% down from 52%.

Market Movements:

  • BTC: Bitcoin rebounded to $101,419 after a volatile 4.5% intraday swing, finding strong support at $99,000 amid geopolitical tensions and surging institutional buying interest.
  • ETH: Ethereum fell 2.3% to $2,237 amid U.S.-Iran tensions, breaking a six-week consolidation pattern despite over $500 million in institutional accumulation.
  • Gold: Bank of America analysts predict gold could hit $4,000 an ounce within a year, an 18% jump, driven less by geopolitical tensions and more by mounting U.S. fiscal debt and a global shift by central banks away from the dollar toward gold.
  • Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites fueled oil price spikes and fears of broader Middle East escalation, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.56%.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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