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Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Rebounds Toward $115K as ETF Flows Return, but Traders Still Price Tail Risk

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As East Asia begins its trading day, bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands at just over $115K, staging a modest rebound from last week’s selloff that saw over $1 billion in leveraged longs liquidated and BTC briefly test $113K.

The bounce comes amid signs of stabilization in institutional flows, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net inflows, a potential reversal after one of the largest ETF outflow days on record last Friday.

The latest correction, which marked BTC’s third straight Friday selloff, was driven by a hawkish macro cocktail: weak U.S. jobs data and a fresh wave of tariffs from Washington, triggering a broader risk-off mood in both equities and crypto. Altcoins bore the brunt of the move, with SOL falling nearly 20% on the week and ETH losing close to 10%.

Yet despite the drop, QCP Capital remains cautiously optimistic.

“The broader structural setup remains intact,” the firm wrote in a Monday note, citing BTC’s highest-ever monthly close in July.

QCP views the selloff as a leverage flush rather than a trend reversal, pointing to historical post-rally shakeouts that cleared the path for renewed accumulation.

That said, market hedging behavior suggests investors aren’t ruling out deeper downside. On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 49% probability that BTC dips below $100,000 before the end of 2025 — up 2 percentage points from the day prior.

The pricing reflects a market that’s still on edge, with downside tail risk priced in despite supportive long-term fundamentals such as regulatory clarity, growing stablecoin adoption, and tokenization initiatives.

The next catalyst could come during the Asia trading day as U.S. issuers report flows, which typically happens by mid-day Hong Kong time.

If ETF inflows continue and implied volatility begins to compress, it may provide the confirmation needed for the market to embrace the buy-the-dip narrative and shake off the macro jitters that have kept it stuck in neutral.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movers:

BTC: Bitcoin is trading back above $115,000, signaling early signs of market stabilization.

ETH: Ether is holding steady around $3,700, with Polymarket traders showing confidence it will break above $4,000 sometime in August.

Gold: Gold extended its rally for a third session on Monday, rising to a two-week high as soft U.S. economic data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut, with CME traders now pricing in an 86% chance of that happening.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled plans to sharply increase tariffs on Indian exports. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% at the open.

S&P 500: Stocks rebounded Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.47% to 6,329.94, snapping a four-day losing streak and marking its best session since May.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

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PEPE Price Sinks 6% Amid Market Sell-Off as Whales Accumulate

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Meme-inspired cryptocurrency PEPE has lost nearly 6% of its value in the last 24-hour period, sliding to a $0.0000107 low even as large investors accumulate.

Trading volumes for the cryptocurrency surged into the trillions of tokens amid the drop, as the token kept failing to find support amid the intense selling pressure. The drop came amid a wider crypto market drawdown, where the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index lost 1.8% of its value.

Memecoins were especially hard hit in the sell-off. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) dropped nearly 5% over the last 24 hours, while bitcoin saw a drop of 0.8%.

The drop comes just days after altcoin season speculation grew among cryptocurrency circles over the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut later this week, which is expected to be a boon for risk assets.

Data from Nansen shows that over the past week, the top 100 non-exchange addresses holding PEPE on the Ethereum network have seen their holdings grow by 1.38% to 307.33 trillion tokens, while exchange wallets had a 1.45% drop in holdings to 254.4 trillion tokens.

Technical Analysis Overview

PEPE’s price action pointed to a market in retreat, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model. The token dropped from $0.000011484 to $0.000010782, with sellers dominating the chart.

Price peaked at $0.000011732 during a resistance test, but volume swelled to 5.5 trillion tokens at that level, before the market ultimately turned lower.

Support showed signs of buckling during the next phase, with the token brushing against $0.000010746. Trading activity intensified again, hitting 7.7 trillion tokens and reinforcing bearish sentiment.

The cryptocurrency’s price whipsawed within a 9% intraday range, a sign that traders remain unsure whether support levels are going to hold.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart

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Digital asset treasuries (DATs), publicly traded firms that hold crypto on their balance sheets, have been hit hard in recent weeks as their market NAVs (mNAVs) slid below 1, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said in a new report.

Looking ahead, ether (ETH) DATs appear to have the most staying power thanks to staking yield, regulatory clarity, and room to grow, argued Kendrick.

The mNAV ratio is crucial. When it falls, these firms lose the incentive (and sometimes the ability) to keep buying crypto, threatening a key source of demand for bitcoin (BTC), ether and solana (solana).

Kendrick said that the next phase for DATs will be one of differentiation. The winners will be those that can raise funds at the lowest cost, achieve scale that draws liquidity and investor attention, and, crucially, earn staking yield. That last point tilts the playing field toward ether and solana treasuries over bitcoin, which lacks yield.

Market saturation is also at play. Strategy’s success as the flagship BTC treasury has inspired a flood of copycats, nearly 90 at last count, who together now hold more than 150,000 BTC, up sixfold this year, the analyst noted.

But if mNAVs stay below 1, Standard Chartered expects consolidation. For BTC treasuries, that could mean firms like Saylor’s Strategy buying out rivals rather than buying new bitcoin on the open market, a coin rotation, not fresh demand.

Ether treasuries look better positioned. They have been aggressively accumulating, with 3.1% of ETH’s circulating supply purchased since June. The largest player, Bitmine (BMNR) is well-placed to keep adding to its 2 million ETH stack, the report said.

For crypto markets, this matters. DAT buying has been a key driver of bitcoin and ether prices in 2025. But with BTC treasuries facing consolidation pressure and solana treasuries still relatively small, Standard Chartered sees ETH as the likely beneficiary going forward.

Read more: Strategy’s S&P 500 Snub Is a Cautionary Signal for Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries: JPMorgan

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Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments

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The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis.

Crapis, who announced the initiative Monday on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems.

Ethereum Foundation background

The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects.

Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption.

In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies.

Crapis’s role

Crapis is a research scientist at the EF and will lead the new dAI Team. He said the group will connect its work with both the EF’s protocol group and its ecosystem support arm.

“Ethereum makes AI more trustworthy, and AI makes Ethereum more useful,” he wrote, adding that the team intends to fund public goods and projects at the intersection of AI and blockchains.

ERC-8004 and Trust Standards

The group will build on recent work around ERC-8004, a proposed Ethereum standard that Crapis described as a way to prove who an AI agent is and whether it can be trusted. By offering identity and reputation systems for autonomous agents, the standard is intended to allow coordination without centralized gatekeepers.

Crapis said the team will support new standards and upgrades as they emerge, guided by Ethereum’s values and the “d/acc” philosophy of decentralized acceleration. The goal, he explained, is to ensure AI development remains open and verifiable while giving humans greater agency over how intelligent systems interact with the economy.

Why it matters

For Ethereum, the move signals a growing ambition to anchor emerging technologies beyond finance.

If AI agents begin transacting at scale, demand could grow for settlement rails, reputation systems and standards that run natively on Ethereum. For the AI community, the initiative offers an alternative to centralized platforms that currently dominate AI infrastructure.

“The more intelligent agents transact, the more they need a neutral base layer for value and reputation,” Crapis said. “Ethereum benefits by becoming that layer and AI benefits by escaping lock-in to a few centralized platforms.”

The team has begun hiring and publishing resources, according to Crapis. He said EF intends to work “with purpose and urgency” to connect AI developers with the Ethereum ecosystem and to accelerate research at the boundary of the two fields.

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