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Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin’s Thin-Liquidity Bounce Raises Questions on Staying Power

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery over the past week, rebounding from a dip below $114,000 to trade near $121,000, in what Glassnode described in a recent report as a shift from “seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent ATHs.”

The rally, however, came without a surge in spot market participation.

Glassnode data shows spot trading volumes fell 22% to $5.7 billion, close to their statistical low band, suggesting the rebound has been driven more by positioning shifts than deep conviction buying. The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta flipped 94% toward buy pressure, a sign that aggressive selling has been replaced by renewed demand, but not yet across a broad base of traders.

On the derivatives side, leveraged traders re-engaged aggressively, Glassnode detailed in its report.

Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta, a measure of the buy-sell pressure in perps, jumped 88%, funding rates remained elevated, and options open interest climbed 6.7% to $42.4 billion. Yet, volatility pricing collapsed by almost a third, indicating a degree of complacency that has historically preceded large market moves.

ETF flows offered some relief, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETF outflows halving to $311 million from $686 million the prior week. Even so, ETF trade volume fell 27.7% to $13.7 billion, keeping activity near its low band.

QCP Capital framed the weekend surge, which briefly pushed BTC above $122,000, as a function of thin order books and a broader risk-on shift in global markets.

“Crypto staged an impressive comeback over the weekend during thin, low-liquidity trading hours,” the Singapore-based trading firm wrote, noting that the bounce aligned with a rebound in U.S. equities and growing expectations for a September Fed rate cut.

While on-chain activity improved, active addresses jumped 8.4% to 793,000, and fee volume rose 10%. Glassnode cautioned that elevated profitability levels could quickly turn into selling pressure if sentiment shifts. With 94.1% of supply in profit and the realized profit-to-loss ratio climbing to 1.9, the market may be nearing a point where profit-taking accelerates.

The combination of thin liquidity, bullish derivatives positioning, and macro-driven optimism leaves Bitcoin primed for volatile moves as it approaches all-time highs, with the next test likely coming from Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release.

Polymarket traders lean toward a modest uptick in line with consensus that would likely keep BTC consolidating, with hotter prints posing a short-term headwind by delaying Fed cuts and softer readings offering a potential breakout catalyst if ETF flows and spot activity strengthen.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118k as traders pull back and position themselves for the possibility that Tuesday’s CPI report might break BTC’s momentum.

ETH: Ethereum is trading at $4200. Analysts say that ETH’s rally is partially due to increased capacity on-chain and lower DeFi costs.

Gold: Gold slid to $3,355.13 as upbeat risk sentiment and Trump’s pledge to exclude gold from tariffs weighed on safe-haven demand, though losses were cushioned by rising Fed rate cut bets ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high after the U.S.-China trade truce was extended, while investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected rate cut.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks eased, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and just under its record, as investors await new inflation data .Meanwhile, Citigroup and UBS lifted their year-end S&P 500 targets, citing easing policy risks and solid earnings, with Citi raising its forecast to 6,600 and UBS to 6,100.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack

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Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.

On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.

The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.

With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.

The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.

Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.

Memecoins drop, broader market bid

SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.

The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.

According to the technical analysis model:

  • SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
  • The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
  • Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
  • Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
  • Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.

Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment

Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.

A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.

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Fed Rate Decision, MKR-SKY Conversion Deadline: Crypto Week Ahead

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The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to dominate markets, both crypto and traditional, in the coming week. Traders are positioned for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points when the Fed announces its decision on Sept. 17, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.

What to Watch

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • Sept. 16: Brazil July unemployment rate Est. N/A (Prev. 5.8%).
    • Sept. 16: Canada August headline CPI YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 1.7%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.3%); core YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 2.6%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%).
    • Sept. 16: U.K. July unemployment rate Est. 4.7%.
    • Sept. 17: U.K. August headline CPI YoY Est. 3.9%. MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%); core YoY Est. 3.7%, MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.2%).
    • Sept. 17: Canada benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 2.75%) followed by a press conference.
    • Sept. 17: The Fed’s FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates. Est: 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% followed by a press conference.
    • Sept. 17: Brazil benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 15%).
    • Sept. 18: Bank of England decision on U.K. interest rates. Est: unchanged at 4%.
    • Sept. 19: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision. Est: unchanged at 0.5%.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 18: Lite Strategy (MEIP), pre-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Curve DAO is voting to changes to donation-enabled Twocrypto contracts. Voting ends Sept. 16.
    • Sept. 16: Aster Network to host a community call.
    • MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18
    • Sept. 18, 6 a.m.: Mantle to host Mantle State of Mind, a monthly townhall series.
    • Sept. 16, 12 p.m.:Kava to host a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
    • Sept. 23: SwissBorg to make a live announcement.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.09 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $18.06 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $48.16 million.
    • Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million.
    • Sept. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $89.8 million
    • Sept. 20: Velo (VELO) to unlock 13.63% of its circulating supply worth $43.39 million.
    • Sept. 20: KAITO (KAITO) to unlock 3.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 15: OpenLedger (OPENLEDGER) to be listed on Crypto.com.
    • Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the delayed upgrade penalty takes effect.
    • Sept. 20: Reserve Rights (RSR) to conduct a token burn.
    • Sept. 22: Falcon Finance to host community sale on Buidlpad.

Conferences

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Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group

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The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday that cryptocurrency groups are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to scrap proposals limiting the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can own.

The group warned that the rules would leave the UK with stricter oversight than the U.S. or the European Union (EU).

According to the FT, BoE officials plan to impose caps of 10,000 british pounds to 20,000 british pounds ($13,600–$27,200) for individuals and about 10 million british pounds ($13.6 million) for businesses on all systemic stablecoins, defined as tokens already widely used for payments in the U.K. or expected to be in the future.

The central bank has argued the restrictions are needed to prevent outflows of deposits from banks that could weaken credit provision and financial stability.

The FT cited Sasha Mills, the BoE’s executive director for financial market infrastructure, as saying the limits would mitigate risks from sudden deposit withdrawals and the scaling of new systemic payment systems.

However, industry executives told the FT the plan is unworkable.

Tom Duff Gordon, Coinbase’s vice president of international policy, said “imposing caps on stablecoins is bad for U.K. savers, bad for the City and bad for sterling,” adding that no other major jurisdiction has imposed such limits.

Simon Jennings of the UK cryptoasset business council said enforcement would be nearly impossible without new systems such as digital IDs. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association told the FT that limits “make no sense” because there are no caps on cash or bank accounts.

The U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act in July, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets licensing, reserve and redemption standards for issuers, with no caps on individual holdings. The European Union has also moved ahead with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is now fully in effect across the bloc.

Stablecoin-specific rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens took effect on June 30, 2024, followed by broader provisions for crypto-assets and service providers on Dec. 30, 2024. Like the U.S. approach, MiCA does not cap holdings, instead focusing on reserves, governance and oversight by national regulators.

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