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All Eyes on Powell as Bitcoin Holds Below $113K: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

3 недели ago

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By Shaurya Malwa (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) is sitting around $113,00 having failed to clear $115,000. Not so long ago, when it was setting new highs and euphoria called for a push to $135,000, those numbers would have sounded wild.

Now things are more muted. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a benchmark for the largest digital assets, slipped to 3,996, down 0.46% on the day after opening above 4,012. It touched a low of 3,957, showing how the pullback has been broad, not just a bitcoin story.

For the time being, the market seems to be waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step up to the podium at Jackson Hole and either calm nerves or shake things up again.

The mood isn’t great. Bitcoin funds have seen over $1 billion pulled in just a few days, according to SoSoValue data.

Ether ETFs, despite seeing net inflows yesterday, have lost another half a billion dollars this week. Call it hedging, call it profit-taking, but money is flowing out. That’s a clear sign institutional traders would rather be safe than sorry heading into Powell’s speech.

Ether, XRP, and Solana (SOL) are all drifting the same way. ETH is stuck near $4,289, down from recent highs as network activity cools. XRP and SOL are each off more than 6% this week. None of them are crashing, but nobody’s buying aggressively either. They’re waiting for bitcoin to make the next move.

Options are pricing in a couple percent swing around the speech — bigger than average, but not panic levels. That swing could be up or down, though the tilt feels negative if Powell sounds less dovish than markets want.

As Pulkit Goyal from Orbit Markets put it, “BTC options are pricing in about a ±2% move around Powell’s speech.”

The stakes are simple. If Powell hints at rate cuts, risk assets — crypto included — will probably breathe easier and bounce. If he remains cautious, the pullback could deepen, potentially pushing bitcoin toward the $108,000 support level.

That’s why everyone’s watching so closely.

Longer term there is still bullish chatter, however. Bitwise says pensions might one day push BTC to $200,000. Maybe. But that’s not today’s story. Today’s story is that bitcoin, like every other risk asset, is hanging on Powell’s words. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 22, 2 p.m.: Polygon Labs Marc Boiron will hold a live AMA on X, sharing the company’s future plans and strategy while answering questions from the community.
    • Aug. 27, 3 a.m.: Mantle Network (MNT), an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will roll out its mainnet upgrade to version 1.3.1, enabling support for Ethereum’s Prague update and introducing new features for platform users and developers.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q2 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. 0.6%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.8%
    • Aug. 22, 10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech on the second day of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
    • Aug. 22, 5 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay announces its monetary policy decision.
      • Policy Rate Prev. 6%
    • Aug. 22, 8 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases Q2 GDP YoY growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 3.9%
    • Aug. 25, 3 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay releases July producer price inflation data.
      • PPI YoY Prev. 4.8%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
    • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 25: Venom (VENOM) to unlock 2.34% of its circulating supply worth $9.45 million.
    • Aug. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $26.36 million.
    • Sep. 1: Sui (SUI) to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 22: XPIN Network (XPIN) to list on Binance Alpha, KuCoin and Gate.
    • Aug. 22: Baby Ethereum (BABYTH) to list on BTSE.
    • Aug. 22: Biconomy (BICO) to list on Bitkub.
    • Aug. 22: Swell (SWELL) to list on Revolut.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • On-chain investigator Dethective uncovered coordinated wallet activity across YZY and LIBRA launches, showing insiders extracted nearly $23 million through early access and pre-seeded trades.
  • One wallet bought $250,000 worth of YZY at $0.20 — when most traders paid above $1 — and flipped it for nearly $1 million profit in eight minutes. Funds were then funneled to a “treasury wallet” already tied to LIBRA gains.
  • That same wallet benefited from LIBRA’s launch six months earlier, where two addresses used similar tactics to snipe tokens. One made $9 million, another $11.5 million, with both dumping quickly before public buyers could react.
  • These wallets appeared only during the YZY and LIBRA launches and invested huge sums instantly, behavior Dethective said was impossible without insider information.
  • While speculation has linked the wallets to LIBRA’s founder Hayden Davis, no proof has surfaced. Still, analysts argue “celebrity coins” marketed to fans may in reality be insider extraction schemes, enriching a few at the cost of retail.
  • Research by Defioasis found more than 60% of YZY traders lost money. Out of 56,050 wallets trading YZY, most “only buying” wallets may have been fake, while “only selling” wallets were insiders exiting.
  • Among those who both bought and sold, 38% profited, but nearly all gains were under $500. Just 406 wallets made more than $10,000, and five cleared over $1 million — mostly linked to insiders. One trader lost over $1 million in a single day.
  • Ripple and SBI Holdings announced plans to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin in Japan by Q1 2026, aiming to leverage new digital asset regulations.
  • SBI VC Trade, a licensed electronic payment instruments exchange service provider, will distribute RLUSD, according to a memorandum of understanding signed Friday.
  • RLUSD, introduced in December 2024, is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations from a third-party auditor. Ripple says this gives it regulatory clarity and institutional-grade compliance compared to peers.
  • SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said RLUSD will “expand the option of stablecoins in the Japanese market” and strengthen trust in digital finance. Ripple executives framed it as a bridge between traditional and decentralized finance.
  • The initiative is indicative of Ripple and SBI’s deepening partnership in Asia and comes just as Japan approved its first yen-denominated stablecoin earlier this week, signaling a rapidly opening market.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Global futures open interest (OI) in BTC and ETH has increased by 1% in the past 24 hours, suggesting capital is flowing in as prices drop. At least some of these inflows could be bearish bets initiated as hedges against potential hawkish comments from Powell later today.
  • SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP and ADA all registered a decline in open interest, a sign of capital outflows. OI increased significantly in smaller, less-followed coins such as MAT, ULTIMA and LUMIA.
  • However, speculative activity has cooled significantly, with volumes across major tokens, excluding BTC, dropping by 20% or more. It appears traders are holding back, waiting for Powell before making their next moves.
  • On the CME, OI in standard ether futures remains elevated near 2 million ETH while BTC’s tally remains well below July’s lows, signaling a lack of investor interest.
  • Options on CME, however, are heating up, with ETH open interest rising to $1 billion, the highest this year. BTC’s option OI has jumped to $4.44 billion, the most since May.
  • BTC options listed on Deribit are suggesting a 2% price swing in the next 24 hours, indicating a slightly above-average volatility around the Jackson Hole event. Volatility has averaged 1.18% over the past 30 days.
  • BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, suggesting downside fears. The same is true for ETFs tied to the Nasdaq.
  • Block flows on the OTC network Paradigm were mixed, featuring outright calls, put spreads and risk reversal strategies.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.56% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $113,062.98 (24hrs: -0.47%)
  • ETH is up 2.07% at $4,329.01 (24hrs: +0.69%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.66% at 3,999.94 (24hrs: -0.6%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.96%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0197% (21.5715% annualized) on KuCoin

CD20, Aug. 22 2025 (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is up 0.11% at 98.73
  • Gold futures are down 0.32% at $3,370.90
  • Silver futures are down 0.26% at $37.98
  • Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 42,633.29
  • Hang Seng closed up 0.93% at 25,339.14
  • FTSE is unchanged at 9,312.56
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% at 5,477.63
  • DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.34% at 44,785.50
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.4% at 6,370.17
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.34% at 21,100.31
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.63% at 28,055.43
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.47% at 2,661.02
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.5 bps at 4.337%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 6,402.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.12% at 23,248.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.29% at 44,986.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.4% (-0.26%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03826 (1.87%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 933 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $55.19
  • Total fees: 3.09 BTC / $349,943
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 145,250 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 33.9 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.56%

Technical Analysis

Daily charts for ether and bitcoin. (TradingView)

  • Ether’s price (left) remains locked in an ascending channel, characterizing the bull run from April lows. Market leader bitcoin, in contrast, has dived out of the bullish channel, indicating a resurgence of sellers.
  • This divergent price setup means scope for bigger gains in ETH in case Jerome Powell take a dovish tone at Jackson Hole.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $337.58 (-1.97%), +0.53% at $339.38 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $300.28 (-1.35%), +0.43% at $301.58
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $131.8 (-4.36%), +1.31% at $133.53
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.89 (-2.53%), +0.71% at $24.06
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $69.80 (+10.99%), -2.11% at $68.33
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.51 (+0.39%), +0.39% at $15.57
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.27 (-2%), +0.49% at $12.33
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.79 (-2.06%), unchanged in pre-market
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.33 (-1.69%), +0.32% at $0.32%
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.88 (-1.43%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.1 (-3.56%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.15 (+2.75%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.04 (-7.34%), $3.05% at $18.59

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$194.4 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $53.8 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $287.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $12.11 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.2 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

BTC's seasonality monthly performance. (Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen)

  • The chart shows BTC’s historical monthly performance since 2010, highlighting September as a seasonally bearish period with an average loss of 4.68%.
  • This calls for bulls to remain vigilant in the aftermath of Powell’s speech later today.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

(Willy Woo/X)(Daan Crypto Trades/X)(Kobeissi Letter/X)(Michael van de Poppe/X)(Nate Geraci/X)(Andre Dragosch/X)

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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

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7 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

Published

8 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

Published

9 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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