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All Eyes on Bitcoin

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Bitcoin saw explosive growth immediately after the recent U.S. presidential elections, rising and retaking the spotlight from former highs of $73,000 in March. Now the question is, will bitcoin (BTC) continue its uptrend, and at what point can a sharp reversal happen?

If we take a look at former BTC market cycles, which happen every four years, then we see that we are now just starting to go into new bitcoin price discovery areas, and BTC could top out at new all-time highs, which is practically anything greater than the current resistance of $92,000. Bitcoin could even potentially see highs of $140,000+ based on prior supply and demand — i.e. halving cycles. On the contrary, what makes this market cycle a bit different than others is the vanished principle of BTC being an inflation hedge or digital gold. In theory, it was supposed to be — that is, at least, likely what Satoshi intended since bitcoin was created after the 2008 financial crisis. From what we saw in the last cryptocurrency bear market cycle, BTC is not an actual inflation hedge and performs like all other risk-on assets, so sentiment could change once the inauguration happens in January.

As we’ve seen before, politics could potentially just be politics until we see actual regulatory rollouts and a more favorable U.S. stance on paper with policies and laws that the markets fully embrace. Things seem to be going in the right direction with the news of Gensler resigning come January 20, 2025. The question remains on who will be his replacement; the wrong person and the smallest sentiment change in the wrong direction could fully accelerate a drawdown in BTC. We’ve previously seen what every Fed meeting minute has done to the price action of crypto which has, up until recently, always been negatively perceived. In other words, we are not fully out of the woods just yet, especially until there is clarity on who could be Gensler’s replacement.

The BTC ETFs played a vital role this year in institutionalizing the cryptocurrency, which allowed for RIA and fiduciary investment in bitcoin, although in a turnaround market the same volumes that helped bitcoin get to the point it is at today can be the same volumes and outflows that present a downfall. This can lead to crippling sentiment as we all know the crypto bull market does not last forever and drawdowns of 70-80% can be expected.

Looking at prior BTC bull market cycles, BTC has seen drawdowns of 20-30%. Can the same be expected with all the new factors under the current and new market structure? Analysts assume less drawdown and volatility scenarios due to the BTC ETF options offered by iShares and others, although on the contrary, systematic strategies still seem to be sought after with investors taking bets on market volatility, which only recently (in 2022) saw an equity market-like expansion in the crypto markets where enough volume, market cap, and stability existed for the shorting functionality of some coins.

With more market participants and more avenues of shorting functionality across all crypto assets, including BTC, this can create more volatility in the short-term. Compared to the last market cycle, there are a lot more traditional finance (TradFi) players trading and market making in the space now, which in a way is offset by more institutional capital locked up (mostly in ETFs since the venture space in crypto dried up from the fast money of the last bull market). Although in a way, no matter how much institutional capital enters the space, the market cycle of BTC will follow volatility— it’s just in its decentralized nature.

Regardless of whatever outlook one has on the price of BTC, it’s important to realize that this is a different market than before. Gone are the days of quick “hot money” returns with the inevitable crypto risk factors ever present. One must remain cautious, but optimistic, on where things are going, if not bullish on the market cycle and structure alone. Regardless, for every type of investor, there is a huge opportunity due to the immense growth of the industry, and when that window will close is anyone’s guess — the only thing for certain is that the new market cycle is just getting started.

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Chart of the Week: Bitcoin Soars, But ‘Wen Lambo’ Crowd Is Missing From the Rally

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What happens when retail logs off from crypto and Wall Street tunes in? Looking at bitcoin’s BTC recent all-time-high, one would say it feels bullish and the industry is maturing.

That might as well be the case, but we might not be there yet. So before we floor our Lambos, let’s look under the hood.

First things first, retail investors have basically ghosted this rally. A quick search on Google Trends using the keyword «bitcoin» shows that the surge that was seen back in 2021’s bull market is non-existent. Back then, everyone and their grandmothers were Googling bitcoin, aping into altcoins and flooding the social media with rocket emojis. In 2025? It’s a ghost town in retail-land.

There was a blip of high retail interest surrounding the U.S. presidential election, when a short-lived memecoin mania took over retail sentiment. However, that surge is long gone, as memecoin prices tanked swiftly, even as bitcoin hit an all-time high this week, ripping past $111,000.

Bitcoin search interest over time on Google. (Google Trends)

«Early in this cycle, memecoins became a concentration of risky retail-driven trading with related trading peaking in January,» said Toronto-based crypto platform FRNT Financial. «However, since then, there has been a virtual wash-out of interest and memecoin trading activity,» which shows «the tepid risk appetite in crypto at the moment,» FRNT added.

Translation: «Wen Lambo» crowd got burned, and they aren’t rushing back into the race track en masse anytime soon.

From Lambos to Corollas

On the topic of risk appetite, let’s go back to the car analogy.

During the 2021 bull market, people bought unreliable performance cars, stripped out the brakes and seatbelts to go faster than ever before, and did not care that there might be engine blowouts. As long as there was a promise of reaching the moon, bullish vibes were all that mattered.

Now? After losing tremendous amounts of money on those unsustainable go-fast cars for years, traders are driving Toyota Corollas—sensible sedans that are slow but steady and still on the road.

That risk-off sentiment is also evident from the funding rates, according to FRNT’s analysis of BTC perp rates—a measure of how much traders are willing to pay to maintain their long positions. When bitcoin reached a record high of around $42,000 in January 2021, the perp rate was about blistering 185%. Today, at bitcoin near $110,000, the rate is near 20% on crypto options exchange Deribit, meaning the risk appetite isn’t completely gone but nowhere near the 2021 frenzy.

Average daily BTC perp rate from 2021 to 2025. (Deribit/FRNT)

ATH jitters

A third point to add is the high number of short positions in the market.

As CoinDesk’s Oliver Knight reported this week, the bitcoin long/short ratio is at its lowest point since the crypto winter in September 2022. This implies that the majority of the traders aren’t completely buying into this recent positive momentum and betting on bitcoin moving lower as a hedge for the new bullish rally.

Bitcoin long/short ratio. (Coinalyze/TradingView)

The impact of such positioning was clear on Friday, when bitcoin swiftly crashed from near $111,000 to $108,000 in a matter of minutes and then bounced right back up to $109,000. The anxiety of a swift volatility is real.

So in a car-themed analogy, the drivers (in this case, investors) are still taking out their super-modified, unreliable sports cars for a weekend drive on the track. Still, they also have their Corollas following along. Just in case the engine blows on their go-fast cars.

Cautious optimism

Given the current macro-risk, it’s not entirely surprising that investors are on their toes and risk-averse. But this might just be exactly what your mechanic at the shop prescribed. In fact, this might be an indicator of a sustainable rally in the long term.

«Periods of low leverage and risk appetite in crypto have often preceded further sustainable gains,» according to FRNT.

«BTC appears to be in such a phase, set against a backdrop of numerous bullish catalysts and narratives,» the firm added.

The bottom line is that the retail Lambos might have been towed away, but big money is stepping in with their everlasting Toyotas. This might start a slow but steady race to the moon, not just a reckless joyride.

Read more: These Six Charts Explain Why Bitcoin’s Recent Move to Over $100K May Be More Durable Than January’s Run

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Solana Plunges 5% as Midnight Sell-Off Signals Institutional Exit

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The cryptocurrency market faces renewed pressure as Solana (SOL) dropped below its stable $177 trading range, reflecting broader concerns about global economic stability.

The correction coincides with increasing geopolitical tensions that have rattled financial markets worldwide, forcing investors to reassess risk exposure across digital assets.

Despite the pullback, Solana’s ecosystem continues to expand with R3’s strategic pivot to integrate with its blockchain, signaling growing institutional interest in the platform’s capabilities for tokenizing real-world assets.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • SOL price dropped from stable $177 range to find support at $170.41, representing a 4.5% correction.
  • Dramatic volume spike to 1.26M occurred during midnight hour when prices fell below $172.
  • Support levels established at $170.67-$171.66 have held thus far.
  • Price attempted recovery toward $174 level before facing resistance.
  • In the last hour, SOL declined from $172.93 to $172.00.
  • Significant price drop occurred at 08:00, briefly touching $171.92 before recovering.
  • Volume spiked to 29,372 units during this minute, suggesting institutional selling pressure.
  • Temporary support found at $171.80-$171.85 range around 07:30-07:31.
  • Local high of $172.35 reached at 07:36 during recovery attempt.
  • Price continues to consolidate near $172 support level.

External References

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Judge Overturns Convictions in Mango Markets Exploiter’s Crypto Fraud Case

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A U.S. judge has overturned the fraud and market manipulation convictions of Avraham Eisenberg, the crypto trader accused of draining $110 million from the now-defunct decentralized finance protocol Mango Markets.

On Friday, U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian ruled that prosecutors failed to prove Eisenberg made false representations to the platform.

He also moved to acquit Eisenberg of wire fraud charges. The investor manipulated the price of Mango’s native token MNGO with massive trades by more than 1,000% in 20 minutes before getting the protocol to allow him to borrow and withdraw $110 million in various cryptocurrencies, backed by the inflated collateral.

Eisenberg’s defense argued that the platform, which operated through smart contracts, allowed anyone to transact freely and that he simply exploited a vulnerability. The judge agreed, stating that Mango’s permissionless structure meant that there “was insufficient evidence of falsity” from prosecutors regarding Eisenberg’s representation to Mango Markets.

Eisenberg was arrested in December 2022, and while this case collapsed, he is still currently serving a four-year sentence handed out after he pleaded guilty to the possession of child sexual abuse material.

“From the beginning, we said this case was fatally flawed,” his attorney Brian Klein of Waymaker LLP said. “We are very pleased for Avi that the judge granted our motion and dismissed the case.”

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