Uncategorized
A Pre-Consensus Lift Amidst Lingering Recession Whispers

Like springtime in New York City, the crypto market got hot, all at once, in early May. After weeks of navigating choppy seas, influenced in part by anxieties surrounding the administration’s trade brinksmanship, a palpable shift in sentiment propelled the crypto sphere into a notable rally.
Bitcoin shape-shifted from a tariff tantrum mooring into a determined hunter of all-time highs. This bullish resurgence was not isolated. Ether, having endured a significant drawdown of over 50% since the start of the year, staged an impressive bounce, gaining 36% in the five days following the much-anticipated Pectra upgrade.
The broader blockchain market mirrored this enthusiasm. The CoinDesk 20 Index, the benchmark for the performance of top digital assets, added nearly 18% in the past week, bringing its 30-day return to over 33%. Further down the capitalization spectrum, the CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks assets beyond the top 20, also rebounded strongly from its lows, delivering 37% over the past month. Demonstrating truly epic participation breadth, the 50-constituent CoinDesk Memecoin Index added a 55% on the week and a whopping 86% in the last month.
Given the fundamentally limited (zero) direct impact of tariff and trade news on the intrinsic value of most (all) crypto assets, this lunge higher feels like what they call a «sentiment shift.» With CoinDesk’s Consensus conference unfolding this week in Toronto, the timing couldn’t be more opportune. The vibes are good.
Performance of CoinDesk 20, CoinDesk 80, CoinDesk Memecoin Index, bitcoin, and ether since Liberation Day, April 2, 2025
Source: CoinDesk Indices
The specter of recession
This recent market exuberance, both within digital assets and across traditional risk-on asset classes, has not quelled the underlying concerns of those who believe the United States is gradually inching towards a recession. Official recessions, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), are indeed relatively infrequent. Yet, today’s unusual confluence of macroeconomic factors provides fertile ground for wariness.
To wit, the initial estimate for first-quarter 2025 GDP showed a contraction of 0.3% at an annualized rate, a notable reversal from the 2.4% growth in the previous quarter. True, this figure was skewed downwards by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to beat anticipated tariff increases, yet a contraction in GDP is nonetheless a concerning data point. Adding to this unease is plunging consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest level in nearly five years, with the Expectations Index hitting its lowest point since October 2011 — a level often associated with recessionary signals. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index echoed this weakness, falling to 52.2 in its preliminary May reading, driven by concerns over trade policy and the potential resurgence of inflation. Furthermore, their survey highlighted a surge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.5%, the highest since 1981.
The growing U.S. debt burden and the persistent inability of the administration to tame the 10-year Treasury yield, despite apparent efforts, also contribute to the sense of economic fragility. Finally, the potential for collateral damage from ongoing or escalating trade wars, including businesses potentially reducing their workforce in response to disrupted supply chains and increased costs, adds another layer of concern.
NBER Chart of US Unemployment Levels and Recession Periods Since 1978
Source: NBER.org (Hey, NBER, should that read «since 1978?»)
To be clear, the prevailing sentiment among our network still leans against an imminent recession, and we don’t make predictions. However, to dismiss the possibility of a recession in the current environment seems imprudent.
Bitcoin vs. other digital assets in a downturn
Crypto has only experienced one NBER-declared recession, during the worst of COVID. While the market crisis caused a liquidity panic and significant drawdowns, the subsequent $5 trillion ocean of emergency fiscal stimulus (and millions of homebound people discovering crypto) pointed things north and delivered the 2021 bubble. We may not expect the same path in a future recession. So, what might we expect?
On the one hand, there’s a compelling argument to be made that bitcoin has now achieved a level of adoption and established a user base sufficient to begin fulfilling its long-touted destiny as a safe haven asset during times of economic turmoil. With the U.S. dollar potentially facing pressure amidst high inflation and a swelling debt burden, bitcoin’s inherent scarcity and decentralized (and apolitical) nature are increasingly attractive.
On the other hand, traditional recessionary environments are typically characterized by scarce liquidity, heightened risk aversion, a dominant focus on capital preservation and a diminished appetite for exploring nascent and volatile asset classes. A contraction in overall economic activity would also lead to reduced funding for entrepreneurial and even established ventures within the blockchain space. Finally, retail users, feeling the financial pinch of a recession, would likely have less «experimental money» to allocate to decentralized finance (DeFi) and other novel crypto applications.
Therefore, even if bitcoin manages to attract safe-haven flows, other blockchain assets, particularly those promising future growth and innovation, could face significant headwinds and continued price pressure. In our view, one of the least constructive outcomes for the broader digital asset ecosystem would be a further increase in bitcoin’s dominance at the expense of innovation and growth in other areas.
The resilience of trading
What might provide a degree of resilience for the digital asset class and the industry as a whole is its energy for trading. Crypto functions more as a trading asset class than a predominantly investment-driven one. In both favorable and unfavorable economic conditions, trading volumes within the crypto markets have generally remained robust and resilient. It’s conceivable that the active trading community could sustain the asset class until broader economic conditions improve.
Navigating uncertainty
While a recession in the United States is a scenario few desire and one that remains outside the highest probability outcomes in most forecasts, and despite the recent sentiment shift, its possibility cannot be entirely dismissed. And, as a matter of economic cycles, periods of contraction are not entirely avoidable. For the sake of our burgeoning industry and the progress made in integrating digital assets into the fabric of global financial services — across trading, investing, lending, saving, and yield generation — we sincerely hope that even a modest stream of support will continue to drive technological development, investor education, accessibility, and broader adoption. Perhaps this will be fueled by one of crypto’s original notions: that the traditional economic system has faltered.
Uncategorized
Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Slips Below $110K as ‘Signs of Fatigue’ Emerging

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is trading below $110,000, changing hands at $109.7K, as Asia continues its trading week.
The move challenges a prevailing market narrative of summer stagnation, coming on the heels of a note from QCP Capital that emphasized suppressed volatility and a lack of immediate catalysts.
A recent Telegram note from QCP pointed to one-year lows in implied volatility and a pattern of subdued price action, noting that BTC had been “stuck in a tight range” as summer approaches.
A clean break below $100K or above $110K, they wrote, would be needed to “reawaken broader market interest.”
Even so, QCP warned that recent macro developments had failed to spark directional conviction.
“Even as US equities rallied and gold sold off in the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, BTC remained conspicuously unmoved, caught in the cross-currents without a clear macro anchor,” the note said. “Without a compelling narrative to spark the next leg higher, signs of fatigue are emerging. Perpetual open interest is softening, and spot BTC ETF inflows have started to taper.”
That context makes the current move all the more surprising.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin surged 3.26% from $105,393 to $108,801, with hourly volume spiking to 2.5x the 24-hour average, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model. BTC broke decisively above $106,500, establishing new support at $107,600, and continued upward into Monday’s session, reaching $110,169.
The breakout coincides with a tense macro backdrop: US-China trade talks in London and a $22 billion U.S. Treasury bond auction later this week have injected uncertainty into global markets. While these events could drive fresh volatility, QCP cautioned that recent headlines have mostly led to “knee-jerk reactions” that quickly fade.
The question now is whether BTC’s move above $110K has true staying power, or whether the rally is running ahead of the fundamentals.
A ‘Massive Shift’ in Institutional Staking May Drive ETH’s Next Rally
Ethereum’s critics have long highlighted centralization risks, but that narrative is fading as institutional adoption accelerates, infrastructure matures, and recent protocol upgrades directly address past limitations.
“Market participants will pay for decentralization because it’s in their economic interest from a security and principal protection standpoint,” Mara Schmiedt, CEO of institutional Ethereum staking platform Alluvial, told CoinDesk. “If you look at [decentralization metrics] all of these things have massively improved over the last couple of years.»
There’s currently $492 million worth of ETH staked by Liquid Collective – a protocol co-founded by Alluvial to facilitate institutional staking
While this figure may appear modest compared to Ethereum’s total staked volume of around $93 billion, what’s interesting is that it originates predominantly from institutional investors.
«We’re really on the cusp of a truly massive shift for Ethereum, driven by regulatory momentum and the ability to unlock the advantages of secure staking,» she noted.
Central to Ethereum’s institutional readiness is the recent Pectra upgrade, a significant development Schmiedt describes as both «massive» and «underappreciated.»
«I think Pectra has been a massive upgrade. I actually think it’s been underappreciated, just in terms of the tremendous amount of change it introduces into the staking mechanics,» Schmiedt said.
Additionally, Execution Layer triggerable withdrawals—a key component of Pectra—provide institutional participants, including ETF issuers, a crucial compatibility upgrade.
This feature enables partial validator exits directly from Ethereum’s execution layer, aligning with institutional operational requirements such as T+1 redemption timelines.
«EL triggerable withdrawals create a much more effective path to exit for large-scale market participants,» Schmiedt added.
Ultimately, Schmiedt said, «I think we’ll see that a lot more [ETH] in institutional portfolios going forward.”
News Roundup
Trump Media May Be the Cheapest Bitcoin Play Among Public Stocks, NYDIG Says
Trump Media (DJT) may be one of the cheapest ways to get bitcoin exposure in public markets, according to a new report from NYDIG, CoinDesk recently reported.
As a growing number of companies adopt MicroStrategy’s strategy of stacking BTC on their balance sheets, analysts are rethinking how to value these so-called bitcoin treasury firms.
While the commonly used modified net asset value (mNAV) metric suggests that investors are paying a premium for BTC exposure, NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro argues mNAV alone is “woefully deficient.” Instead, he points to the equity premium to NAV, which factors in debt, cash, and enterprise value, as a more accurate gauge.
By that measure, Trump Media and Semler Scientific (SMLR) rank as the most undervalued of eight companies analyzed, trading at equity premiums of -16% and -10% respectively, despite both showing mNAVs above 1.1. In other words, their shares are worth less than the value of the bitcoin they hold.
That’s in stark contrast to MicroStrategy (MSTR), which rose nearly 5% Monday as bitcoin crossed $110,000, while DJT and SMLR remained mostly flat—making them potentially overlooked vehicles for BTC exposure.
Circle Stock Nearly Quadruples Post-IPO as Bitwise and ProShares File Competing ETFs
Two major ETF issuers, Bitwise and ProShares, filed proposals on June 6 to launch exchange-traded funds tied to Circle (CRCL), whose stock has nearly quadrupled since its IPO late last week, CoinDesk previously reported.
ProShares is aiming for a leveraged product that delivers 2x the daily performance of CRCL. At the same time, Bitwise plans a covered call fund that generates income by selling options against held shares, two very different ways to capitalize on the stock’s explosive rise.
CRCL surged another 9% Monday in volatile trading, continuing to draw interest from both traditional finance and crypto investors. The proposed ETFs have an effective date of August 20, pending SEC approval. If approved, they would further blur the lines between crypto and conventional finance, giving investors new tools to play one of the hottest post-IPO names of the year.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $109,795 after a 3.26% breakout fueled by institutional buying, elevated volume, and macro uncertainty from US-China trade talks and an upcoming $22B Treasury auction.
- ETH: Ethereum rebounded 4.46% from a low of $2,480 to close at $2,581, with strong buying volume confirming support at $2,580 and setting up a potential breakout above $2,590.
- Gold: Gold is trading at $3,314.45, edging up 0.08% as investors watch US-China trade talks in London and a subdued dollar keeps prices attractive.
- Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.51%, as investors awaited updates from ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.
- S&P 500: The S&P 500 closed slightly higher Monday, boosted by Amazon and Alphabet, as investors monitored U.S.-China trade talks.
Elsewhere in Crypto
Uncategorized
Bitcoin Climbs Above $110K, ‘At Crossroads’ for Next Major Move

Bitcoin’s BTC quiet climb on Monday accelerated to its strongest price in June, rebounding from last week’s decline to near all-time high levels.
The largest crypto advanced by 3.7% over the past 24 hours, topping $110,000, and it’s changing hands by only 2% from its record prices observed in May. Ethereum’s ether ETH kept pace with a 3.8% gain during the same period, bouncing above $2,620. Native tokens of Hyperliquid HYPE and SUI SUI outperformed most large-cap cryptocurrencies, rising 7% and 4.5%, respectively.
Bitcoin’s move higher caught leveraged traders off-guard, liquidating over $110 million worth of short positions within an hour, CoinGlass data shows. Across all crypto assets, some $330 million of shorts were liquidated during the day, the most in a month. Shorts are seeking to profit from declining asset prices.
The move happened while traditional markets showed muted action, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes flat on the day. Crypto-related stocks bounced during the session to catch up with BTC’s recovery over the weekend.
«A ‘peaceful rally’ is a perfect way to describe this price action,» said well-followed analyst Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics. «Just a consistent development of higher highs and higher lows. Any signs of weakness? Buyers step in and defend the trend.»
The crypto market is now on steadier footing for a potential next leg higher after bitcoin’s 10% decline to near $100,000 and with more than $1.9 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives over the past week, having flushed excessive leverage, Bitfinex analysts noted in a Monday report.
However, on-chain data indicates rising sell pressure from long-term holders that could overwhelm demand, the analysts added.
“Bitcoin is now at a crossroads—balanced between structural support and waning bullish momentum, waiting for its next macro cue,” the Bitfinex note added.
Those macro catalysts may come later this week, noted Jake O, OTC trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute.
«U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are scheduled to meet today, with markets likely sensitive to any headlines following last week’s positive momentum, and the data calendar remains light until Wednesday, when CPI will offer fresh insight into U.S. inflation,» he said.
UPDATE (June 9, 21:51 UTC): Adds short liquidation data from CoinGlass.
Uncategorized
Aptos’ APT Gains 4% on Significant Volume, Has More Potential Upside

Aptos’ APT token rallied more than 4% on significant volume, with momentum indicators suggesting more potential upside, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The digital asset broke out of its consolidation phase between $4.65-$4.73, establishing strong support at $4.73 before pushing through previous resistance levels to establish a new local high, according to the model.
The token is currently 2.6% higher, trading around $4.86.
The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk CD20 was 1.75% higher at publication time.
Technical Analysis:
- APT rallied from $4.65 to $4.85, representing a 4.3% gain with significant volume confirmation.
- Price formed a clear consolidation pattern between $4.65-$4.73 before experiencing a decisive breakout at 09:00 with volume nearly doubling the 24-hour average.
- Strong support established at $4.73 with subsequent price action forming an ascending channel with resistance at $4.85.
- Substantial volume spike during the 16:00 candle (884,397 units) confirmed buyer conviction as APT pushed through previous resistance levels.
- Price formed a distinct pattern of higher lows while encountering resistance at $4.85, which was breached during the 20:01 candle with significant volume (10,126 units).
- Key technical development occurred at when price surged from $4.84 to $4.85 with strong volume confirmation (9,094 units).
- Support at $4.84 held through subsequent retests, with final minutes showing decisive momentum suggesting potential continuation of the uptrend.
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