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Bitcoin Retests 50-Day Average Support; XRP Risks Dogecoin-Like Bearish Shift in Momentum

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This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

There is an old saying, «Once is a chance, twice is a coincidence, and a third time is a trend.»

It applies to bitcoin BTC right now. The cryptocurrency’s price has fallen back to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which offered support on two occasions this month, leading to price bounces.

Therefore, the latest re-test of the average presents an opportunity for the bulls to establish a trend in which the 50-day SMA powers new legs higher. Conversely, the fall of the 50-day SMA support could invite stronger selling pressure, potentially leading to a dip below $100,000.

At press time, the bear case appears strong due to signs of bull fatigue, as evident from the recent shallow bounces from the 50-day SMA. The first test of the average on June 5 produced a bounce from roughly $100,500 to over $10,000. However, the second test of the SMA on June 17 saw prices bounce only from $103,000 to $109,000.

The past week’s Doji candle also suggests bull fatigue above $100,000.

A high-volume move above $110,000 is needed to restore the immediate bullish outlook.

BTC's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

XRP headed the DOGE way?

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP XRP is trading at the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud, a momentum indicator based on several moving average variants and developed by a Japanese journalist in the 1960s.

Crossovers above and below the cloud are said to represent bullish and bearish shifts in momentum.

When an asset’s price crosses below the cloud, as dogecoin DOGE did early this month, it typically signals a bearish trend. Traders often interpret this as a signal to consider selling or shorting the asset, especially if other macro or technical indicators confirm the signal.

XRP’s 50-day SMA has already crossed below the 200-day SMA to confirm the so-called death cross, a bearish indicator. Therefore, a potential move below the Ichimoku cloud could prove costly for the bears, potentially opening the door for a slide below $2.

XRP, DOGE price chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

On the charts, support is seen directly at $ 1.60, the early April low. Coins like DOGE, ADA, and LINK have dropped below their respective Ichimoku clouds in recent days, resulting in price losses.

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

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Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.

Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.

The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.

Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.

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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

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XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.

One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.

Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.

On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.

XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.

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