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Home on the (BTC) Range

Hi. I’m Andy Baehr with the CoinDesk Indices team.
Question: Bitcoin is stuck in a range. Is that a bad thing or a good thing?
Even casual BTC watchers will have noted the ten percent channel that has held for more than a month. As of today, in fact, it has been 40 days since we entered the ~$101K — ~$111K range, with no catalyst forcing a breakout through either boundary. Good or bad thing?
The macro muddle supports range-trading. Our anchor bitcoin macro factor remains expectations for future real interest rates—nominal rates minus inflation. Recent cross-currents create an unclear picture: inflation expectations from surveys have been elevated (though recent releases seem less concerning), while hopes for Fed relief were dim until the market began pricing in two 2025 cuts more assertively. Too muddled for a breakout. Bitcoin is doing what it should.
For the store-of-value thesis, range-trading is actually fine. As bitcoin accumulates more days of «not unexpected» behavior, it supports the narrative of relative independence from other risk assets and improved stability. (The S&P 500 has also kept an 8% range through the same 39 days, so bitcoin isn’t alone in this holding pattern, although recent news flows might have knocked a younger bitcoin off the track.)
But traders are getting restless. Bitcoin’s basement-level thirty-day realized volatility below 30% crimps opportunity. Implied vols are also down as option buyers grow fatigued and sellers grab yield more confidently. Like any market, a range that holds too long creates complacency—making the eventual exit more «exciting» than it would otherwise be.
The stalled mood is hurting breadth. Without bitcoin providing leadership, other digital assets are wilting. The CoinDesk 20 Index has trailed bitcoin by about 5% over the past month, as the lack of sentiment has stalled the late-April rally, even in ETH, which had bounced strongly.
How does this compare historically? With some truly unattractive vibe coding (I take the blame), we studied bitcoin’s longest streaks of holding 10% ranges. The current 40-day stretch isn’t the longest—that was 42 days—but it’s close. Similar streaks occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2023. Given bitcoin’s evolved ownership structure (ETFs, MSTR) and more accessible spot and derivatives markets, would a 50-day streak surprise anyone? Not sure.
Business
Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.
The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.
Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.
The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.
Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.
«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.
Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says
Business
Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.
The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.
Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.
The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.
Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.
«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.
Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says
Business
Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.
The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.
On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.
The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.
Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.
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