The U.S. employment situation continued to roll along in strong fashion in March, adding another piece to the puzzle as the Federal Reserve contemplates the path of short-term interest rates in a world that’s markedly changed in the last 48 hours.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning. Economists had expected a gain of just 135,000 following February’s increase of 117,000 jobs (revised from an originally reported 151,000).

The unemployment rate for March, however, rose a tick to 4.2% against economist consensus of 4.1% and February’s 4.1%.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) was little-changed in the minutes following the report at $82,600.

Ahead of the jobs report, the CME FedWatch Tool — which gauges market expectations for Federal Reserve policy — had priced in four rate cuts for 2025, which would bring the federal funds rate down to a target range of 3.25%–3.50%. While the Fed is still expected to hold rates steady at its May meeting, market participants are increasingly betting on a cut in June, with current odds showing a 60% probability.

All this comes, of course, as Trump’s Wednesday evening tariff announcements threw markets into an historic tizzy. The Nasdaq plunged 6% on Thursday and the S&P 500 just shy of 5%. Hopes for some sort of Friday bounce were dashed a few hours ago when China announced retaliatory tariffs. Prior to the jobs data, Nasdaq and S&P futures were pointing to opening declines of around 3.5%.

Bitcoin added to list of safe havens?

To no surprise, gold is among the assets where investors have been hiding out. Though it’s down a bit since the tariff announcement, it remains very close to its record high of around $3,200 per ounce. Also to no surprise, U.S. Treasury bonds have seen a strong bid, with the yield on the 10-year tumbling to 3.89% just ahead of this morning’s jobs news, now lower by nearly 100 basis points since Trump’s inauguration.

Bitcoin bulls may have been disappointed by the crypto’s behavior over the past weeks, with the price seemingly moving tick for tick with the struggling Nasdaq. Signs of a decoupling may be emerging though. Bitcoin on Thursday managed to hold the $80,000 level even as the Nasdaq tumbled throughout the day. Prior to this morning’s numbers, BTC was roughly flat in the $82,000 area even as futures pointed to a continuation of the Nasdaq plunge.

Next up is March inflation data to be reported next week, with both core and headline CPI still seen hovering around 3%.

Since the start of April, bitcoin (BTC) has experienced an unusual increase in conviction from both short-term and long-term holders.

According to Glassnode, short-term holders—those who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days—are typically more reactive to price movements, often buying during periods of euphoria and selling during downturns.

However, of late, short-term holders appear to have become value-driven buyers despite bitcoin currently sitting roughly 25% below its all-time high.

Since the start of April, this group has grown by around 15,000 BTC, now holding a total of just over 3.7 million BTC. That said, since February, they have distributed approximately 280,000 BTC—likely a mix of profit-taking from the November–December rally, which followed President Donald Trump’s election win. That’s in addition to panic selling during bitcoin’s 30% drawdown from its January all-time high.

Long-term holders—those who have held for at least 155 days – have boosted their coin stash by 400,000 BTC since February, with small amounts acquired this month, taking the overall tally to over 13.5 million. This suggests growing conviction among long-term holders, even amid recent price stagnation.

While bitcoin has remained relatively flat since the start of April, Nasdaq is down 3.5% in the same time frame, with futures pointing to a further 3% decline.

The VIX index, which shows the equity market’s expectations for 30-day volatility and is often called Wall Street’s «fear gauge,» rose to 39, the highest since October 2020, after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., data from TradingView show.

The increase, coupled with the sharp sell-off in the U.S. stock-index futures, prompted traders to increase estimates of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to 116 basis points this year, up from 100 basis points before the China news hit the wires, CME’s FedWatch tool shows.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded 0.7% lower on the day at $82,500 at press time, having earlier put in highs above $84,600. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, represented by Deribit’s DVOL index, rose to an annualized 54.6%, the highest in two weeks.