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Bitcoin at $200K by Year-End is Now Firmly in Play, Analyst Says After Muted U.S. Inflation Data

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Wednesday’s softer-than-expected U.S. inflation has likely set the stage for accelerated gains in bitcoin BTC, potentially to $200,000 by the end of the year, according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

«If BTC breaks out of the $105K-$110K range with conviction, we could see a sharp move to $120K and, more importantly, reach our year-end price target of $138.5K by the end of the summer,» Mena told CoinDesk in an email.

«Today’s CPI print may serve as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin — and it may be the unlock that brings this target forward by several months. If momentum continues building, a $200K Bitcoin by year-end is now firmly in play,» Mena added.

21Shares is one of the world’s first and largest issuers of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs),

The report from the Labor Department released Wednesday showed that the cost of living, measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in April. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% increase.

Notably, the CPI for durable goods, most of which are imported or manufactured with imported content, decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% month-to-month (-1.3% annualized), indicating that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have not yet been fully passed through to the final consumer.

The annualized CPI advanced 2.4%, with core inflation matching the pace of April at 2.8%.

«This continued trend of cooling inflation strengthens the case for potential policy easing later this year. With the Fed’s June meeting approaching, the focus now shifts to how soon policymakers may respond to cooling inflation and shifting macro clarity,» Mena said in an email to CoinDesk.

The CPI report prompted traders to price in 47 basis points of Fed easing, equivalent to roughly two 25 basis point rate cuts, this year, compared to 42 basis points early this week. Further, traders priced fully priced the rate cut for October, with the September probability hovering above 70%.

Mena explained that the CPI tailwind comes on the heels of several bullish catalysts, such as sovereign and institutional adoption and the impending stablecoin regulation.

«As macro clarity improves, we should see Bitcoin flows accelerate — driven by renewed institutional confidence, increased activity from Bitcoin treasuries, and the continued rollout of state-level Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) programs. These dynamics could supercharge ETF inflows and reinforce Bitcoin’s evolving role in global portfolios. Bitcoin is built for this environment,» Mena noted.

BTC changed hands at $108,440 at press time, according to CoinDesk data.

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.

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