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Circle Goes Full Circle

By sheer luck, I had an opening bell media hit with NYSE TV this last Thursday, the day Circle listed as CRCL. The NYSE studio is upstairs at gallery level. I’d first visited the NYSE on the same gallery balcony as a boy with my Dad. I remember getting the impression that IBM was a huge company that represented the future.
Circle staff and guests filed in at 9:15, a much larger delegation than most bell-ringings. Not only was the floor packed, but both galleries were full. As the applause started, precisely at 9:29:30, everything else stopped. This wasn’t the usual opening bell tea ceremony. NYSE President Lynn Martin stood beside an air-punching Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, and the specialists, floor brokers, and other floor inhabitants joined in the cacophony. The energy took over the whole floor in a way that felt exceptional.
I asked, cheekily, to the NYSE TV folks which specialist booth would trade CRCL. No one had any idea what I was talking about. The producer decided to move our hit to the floor with a handheld microphone and change our subject from bitcoin to stablecoins on the fly. That was fine—plenty to say about stablecoins.
Standing within feet of Jeremy Allaire on the floor next to the bell balcony, doing our five-minute segment, it was pure electricity. It was the feeling when you finish a marathon and a beaming volunteer places a medal around your neck.
Accomplishment and validation. This was a moment enabled by a friendlier SEC and coincident with meaningful blockchain legislation, but it didn’t have the vibe of MSTR rapture or youthful DeFi exuberance. It felt mature and financial—adults celebrating.
A long time coming
USDC sprang to life in September 2018, just before a local peak in U.S. interest rates. In retrospect, it was a handy time to launch, when carry (yield from backing assets) was positive but yield expectations in crypto (whose practitioners mostly grew up in a zero interest rate world) remained low. When COVID hit, in 2020, ZIRP (Zero-Interest-Rate-Policy) returned suddenly, threatening the business model, but prompting crypto adoption and experimentalism.
When the Fed aggressively raised rates in 2022 to help metabolize $5 trillion in COVID fiscal stimulus, stablecoins faced the opposite combination of supportive and threatening forces: higher carry revenues, but traumatized markets.
Circle’s failed SPAC attempt spanned this transition. Announced in July 2021 when 3-month yields were 0.05%, the Concord Acquisition deal was renegotiated in February 2022 (as rates began their historic climb) and ultimately terminated in December 2022—right as rates hit 4.42%. The SEC never declared the S-4 registration statement effective. The transaction «timed out» waiting for regulatory approval, just as the underlying economics of Circle’s business were being boosted by soaring rates.
Like yields
Now, several years into a 4-5% rate environment, the model has adapted and appears to be working. USDC holders can receive «rewards» on Coinbase that are similar to risk-free yields. On-chain cash holdings and collateral can be enhanced with tokenized treasuries. The GENIUS Act on stablecoins appears in good shape for passage, opening up the market for greater stablecoin adoption and participation.
The U.S. government has a new potential multi-trillion dollar customer for U.S. treasuries, providing much-needed demand for U.S. debt, which has become a chess piece in global trade. Circle (and other stablecoin issuers) are enjoying a good carry scenario, although near-term profitability has significant interest rate risk, now under the watchful scrutiny of CRCL shareholders and analysts.
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Bitcoin Climbs Above $110K, ‘At Crossroads’ for Next Major Move

Bitcoin’s BTC quiet climb on Monday accelerated to its strongest price in June, rebounding from last week’s decline to near all-time high levels.
The largest crypto advanced by 3.7% over the past 24 hours, topping $110,000, and it’s changing hands by only 2% from its record prices observed in May. Ethereum’s ether ETH kept pace with a 3.8% gain during the same period, bouncing above $2,620. Native tokens of Hyperliquid HYPE and SUI SUI outperformed most large-cap cryptocurrencies, rising 7% and 4.5%, respectively.
Bitcoin’s move higher caught leveraged traders off-guard, liquidating over $110 million worth of short positions within an hour, CoinGlass data shows. Across all crypto assets, some $330 million of shorts were liquidated during the day, the most in a month. Shorts are seeking to profit from declining asset prices.
The move happened while traditional markets showed muted action, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes flat on the day. Crypto-related stocks bounced during the session to catch up with BTC’s recovery over the weekend.
«A ‘peaceful rally’ is a perfect way to describe this price action,» said well-followed analyst Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics. «Just a consistent development of higher highs and higher lows. Any signs of weakness? Buyers step in and defend the trend.»
The crypto market is now on steadier footing for a potential next leg higher after bitcoin’s 10% decline to near $100,000 and with more than $1.9 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives over the past week, having flushed excessive leverage, Bitfinex analysts noted in a Monday report.
However, on-chain data indicates rising sell pressure from long-term holders that could overwhelm demand, the analysts added.
“Bitcoin is now at a crossroads—balanced between structural support and waning bullish momentum, waiting for its next macro cue,” the Bitfinex note added.
Those macro catalysts may come later this week, noted Jake O, OTC trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute.
«U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are scheduled to meet today, with markets likely sensitive to any headlines following last week’s positive momentum, and the data calendar remains light until Wednesday, when CPI will offer fresh insight into U.S. inflation,» he said.
UPDATE (June 9, 21:51 UTC): Adds short liquidation data from CoinGlass.
Uncategorized
Aptos’ APT Gains 4% on Significant Volume, Has More Potential Upside

Aptos’ APT token rallied more than 4% on significant volume, with momentum indicators suggesting more potential upside, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The digital asset broke out of its consolidation phase between $4.65-$4.73, establishing strong support at $4.73 before pushing through previous resistance levels to establish a new local high, according to the model.
The token is currently 2.6% higher, trading around $4.86.
The broader market gauge, the CoinDesk CD20 was 1.75% higher at publication time.
Technical Analysis:
- APT rallied from $4.65 to $4.85, representing a 4.3% gain with significant volume confirmation.
- Price formed a clear consolidation pattern between $4.65-$4.73 before experiencing a decisive breakout at 09:00 with volume nearly doubling the 24-hour average.
- Strong support established at $4.73 with subsequent price action forming an ascending channel with resistance at $4.85.
- Substantial volume spike during the 16:00 candle (884,397 units) confirmed buyer conviction as APT pushed through previous resistance levels.
- Price formed a distinct pattern of higher lows while encountering resistance at $4.85, which was breached during the 20:01 candle with significant volume (10,126 units).
- Key technical development occurred at when price surged from $4.84 to $4.85 with strong volume confirmation (9,094 units).
- Support at $4.84 held through subsequent retests, with final minutes showing decisive momentum suggesting potential continuation of the uptrend.
Uncategorized
Trump Media and Semler Scientific Could Be Cheapest Bitcoin Treasury Companies by This Metric

A tsunami of new bitcoin BTC treasury companies — firms that almost exclusively dedicate themselves to accumulating bitcoin — is flooding the market.
Since all of them are more or less following Strategy’s (MSTR) playbook, questions are rising about the best ways to value them, and compare them to each other.
“The most important metric for a bitcoin treasury is the premium it trades at relative to its underlying net assets, including any operating company,” Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at bitcoin financial firm NYDIG, wrote in a June 6 report.
On the surface, that means adding up the company’s bitcoin, cash and enterprise value excluding the bitcoin stuff, and subtracting obligations such as debt and preferred stock. “It’s this premium that allows these companies to convert stock for bitcoins, effectively acting as a money changer converting shares for bitcoins,” Cipolaro said.
One of the most popular metrics, mNAV, measures a company’s valuation to its net asset value — in these cases, their bitcoin treasuries. An mNAV above 1.0 signals that investors are interested in paying a premium for exposure to the stock relative to its bitcoin stash; however, an mNAV below 1.0 means the equity is now worth less than the company’s holdings.
But mNAV alone is “woefully deficient” to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of these firms, Cipolaro said. The research report made use of other metrics such as NAV, mNAV measured by market capitalization, mNAV by enterprise value, and equity premium to NAV to provide a more complex picture.
The table shows, for example, that Semler Scientific’s (SMLR) and Trump Media’s (DJT) equity premium to NAV (which measures the percentage difference between a fund’s market price and its net asset value), are the lowest of the eight measured companies, coming in at -10% and -16% respectively, despite the fact that both companies have an mNAV above 1.1.
Alas, both SMLR and DJT are little-changed on Monday even as bitcoin climbs to $108,500 versus Friday evening’s $105,000 level. MSTR is higher by just shy of 5%.
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