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Trio of Soft Economic Reports Boost Fed Rate Cut Odds, but What About Bitcoin?

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This week’s main economic event comes on Friday when the U.S. government releases employment data for May. Ahead of that though, were three fairly important data points of their own on Wednesday, and all flashed unexpected weakness.

First to hit was ADP private payrolls for May and that report showed the addition of just 37,000 jobs last month, far shy of expectations for 115,000 and well south of April’s already weak 60,000. It was the softest ADP number since March 2023.

«ADP NUMBER OUT,» said President Trump on his Truth Social. «‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE.»

Next up was the May ISM Services report, which came in at 49.9 against 52 expected and 51.6 in April. A number below 50 shows contraction and May’s report was the first time in that zone in one year.

Finally, the U.S. Federal Reserve released its Beige Book for May, which showed even more softness in the economy. «Economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report,» read the survey. «Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth … the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report. However, a few District reports indicate the outlook has deteriorated.»

Added up, the fresh data sent the 10-year U.S. Treasury note tumbling ten basis points to 4.36%, its lowest level in a month. It also had the odds of a July rate cut rising to 29% from 22% one week ago and the odds of one or more rate cuts by September rising to 76% from 58%.

Whither bitcoin?

The shibboleth that bitcoin BTC needs an easy Fed to rally may no longer be so, if it ever was. The world’s largest crypto soared nearly 50% from mid-April to a new record high two weeks ago even as a string of Fed officials continually said they saw no need to cut rates.

Still, softer monetary policy from the U.S. central bank probably wouldn’t hurt. For today at least, bitcoin is unimpressed with the thought of rate cuts coming sooner rather than later, continuing to trade in very quiet fashion around the 105,000 level.

Friday’s government jobs report is likely to be key. Another poorer than expected print might come closer to cementing a Fed rate cut or cuts as soon as this summer, and turn the interest rate picture from a headwind to a tailwind.

Economist forecasts are for the U.S. to have added 130,000 jobs in May with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

Genuine slowdown

«The ADP report does signal a genuine slowdown in labor demand, above all at SMEs (small and medium enterprises) which modestly shed jobs – important as SMEs account typically for around 2/3 of job growth,» Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International, told CoinDesk in an email. «It is wholly unsurprising given all the policy uncertainty and, above all, the ambiguity.»

«I suspect that the clampdown on immigration (legal and illegal) is shrinking what was a very abundant pool of skilled and unskilled labour, and competition is heating up,» he continued. «At the margin, it creates additional inflationary pressure, on top of tariffs and measures to secure supply chains that will necessarily add to companies’ operating costs.»

«How long it persists depends on how long the slowdown lasts, and the longer it goes on, the greater the risks of more significant layoffs, which, outside of highly specialized areas, would likely weigh quite heavily on wage growth, as job security would move to the forefront of employee considerations,» Ostwald concluded.

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Bitcoin Holds Above $105K Despite Donald Trump’s Threats Against Elon Musk

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Bitcoin BTC held firm above $105,000 on Saturday despite an unusually combative and personal escalation in the Trump-Musk feud that could rattle traditional markets next week.

On Saturday, in a phone interview with NBC News, President Trump warned that there would be “serious consequences” if Elon Musk financially backed Democratic candidates running against Republicans who support the GOP’s budget bill. “If he does, he’ll have to pay the consequences for that,” Trump said, adding later, “He’ll have to pay very serious consequences if he does that.”

Trump, who has often boasted of past support from Musk, firmly dismissed the idea of mending ties. “No,” he said when asked whether he wished to repair the relationship. “I would assume so, yeah,” he added when asked if the rift was permanent.

Despite the intensifying feud between two of the most influential figures in U.S. politics and technology, Bitcoin remained unfazed. The cryptocurrency held onto earlier gains and continues to trade near weekly highs. The market’s composure suggests that traders may increasingly view BTC as a hedge against institutional dysfunction, or at least as an asset insulated from the partisan fallout that tends to impact equities more directly.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • BTC traded in a 24-hour range of $1,162 (1.13%), from a low of $104,624 to a high of $105,786, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
  • Strong support formed at $104,800, where above-average volume confirmed buyer interest.
  • Resistance at $105,200 was broken and has since flipped into a short-term support zone.
  • Volume peaked at 378 BTC during key breakout moments, especially around 13:43–13:46 and 13:53.
  • A short consolidation occurred between $104,300–$104,600 before the final surge to near highs.
  • An ascending price channel remains intact, showing bullish structure despite intermittent pullbacks.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Ether Holds Steady Above $2,500 as ETF Demand Signals Institutional Confidence

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Ether ETH has rebounded firmly from key support near $2,460, recovering losses and stabilizing above the $2,500 threshold amid broader market volatility.

The rally follows a higher low formation backed by above-average volume, signaling growing market confidence.

Institutional participation appears to be reinforcing the trend, with BlackRock’s ETHA ETF reporting $492 million in net inflows last week.

Total holdings now exceed $4.84 billion, reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment even as price action remains sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Traders are watching to see if ETH can challenge resistance in the $2,520–$2,530 range.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • ETH traded within a $72 range over 24 hours, from a low of $2,460.35 to a high of $2,532.41.
  • A key support zone formed at $2,460–$2,470, where ETH bounced on strong volume during midnight hours.
  • Final hour surge reached $2,515.11, backed by 5,919 ETH in volume.
  • Higher low structure established with interim support at $2,485 and resistance at $2,503.
  • Final retracement held support at $2,507, with price consolidating around $2,510 into the close.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Coinbase, BiT Global End Legal Fight Over WBTC Delisting

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Coinbase and BiT Global have reached a legal settlement that ended their dispute over the delisting of BiT Global’s wrapped bitcoin (wBTC) token on Coinbase.

According to a joint court filing, BiT Global has agreed to dismiss its lawsuit against the crypto exchange with prejudice, meaning the case cannot be brought again in the future. The filing notes that both companies will cover their own legal expenses.

BiT Global had filed the lawsuit last year in the Northern District of California after Coinbase delisted the token over what it said was “unacceptable risk” that the tokenized BTC would “fall into the hands of Justin Sun.”

Sun became affiliated with wBTC in August last year through a partnership, prompting Coinbase to question BiT Global about his role. Sun, a Chinese-born crypto billionaire, has nevertheless been supporting the token, with World Liberty Financial dropping its cbBTC for wBTC after he joined as an advisor.

The suit alleged the exchange’s decision was unjustified and harmed the token’s liquidity and reputation while favoring Coinbase’s competing asset cbBTC. Coinbase launched cbBTC just two months before announcing it was delisting wBTC.

The dismissal does not disclose any settlement terms beyond the cost arrangement.

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