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Bitcoin Traders Are Watching These Levels for Cues on Downside Risk

Crypto markets are giving no return opportunities for intraday traders, but long-term market watchers say the market is in a coiled spot and key levels are to be monitored for moves on either side.
Bitcoin BTC hovered just above $105,000 on Wednesday, showing a steady rise from earlier in the week. Ether ETH, Cardano’s ADA ADA, dogecoin DOGE and XRP XRP showed returns under 1%. Overall market capitalization declined 1.8%.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said the market’s shift in sentiment reflected a sense that trade tensions, and that the drag on risk assets may have been priced in.
“While the U.S. economy shows signs of contraction, investors are optimistic on tech, especially on the future outlook of Bitcoin as institutions continue to integrate further with the industry,” Ruck said, adding that despite inflation risks and uncertain macro policies, the crypto market’s long-term trajectory remains positive.
Bitcoin’s price action over the past week has been telling. According to data from Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco, BTC ended last week week around $105,700, down 3.1% from the previous week’s close near $109,050. This came as BTC spot ETFs saw $150 million in net outflows in the the first negative print after six consecutive weeks of inflows.
“BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, while reserves for major altcoins such as ETH and XRP have stabilised,” Greco wrote in an email to CoinDesk.
Stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached their highest levels in years, he added, a sign that investors may be preparing to deploy fresh capital rather than exiting the market.
Greco added that bitcoin’s market-value-to-realised-value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at around 2.2, below the historical top threshold of 3.7. That suggests we’re in the late stages of the cycle — but not at the peak yet.
Bitunix analysts pointed to the Fed’s dovish comments as a short-term boost to risk appetite, though they warned that dollar volatility could disrupt flows.
“Bitcoin’s short-term key level is at $105,000,” they said. “If it can hold above this level, it may continue to rise. Conversely, if the market shifts back to risk aversion, the key support level at $102,700 must be defended.”
As such, analysts say that if Bitcoin’s dominance begins to fade, historically a sign of late-cycle rotation, altcoins could gain momentum, marking the later innings of a bull market.
With stablecoin reserves rising and institutions continuing to integrate Bitcoin into their strategies, traders are bracing for what could be a volatile but potentially lucrative summer.
We’re hoping that the positive trend for the crypto markets continues for the long run,” LVRG’s Ruck said.
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Bitcoin Pushes Toward $107K Even as Trump Sends National Guard to Los Angeles

Bitcoin (BTC) BTC maintained a steady climb Saturday as U.S. domestic tensions intensified.
Markets remained focused on crypto resilience despite unsettling headlines, including an immigration-related standoff in Los Angeles.
According to a report by CNBC, over 100 arrests have been reported as clashes continued between protesters and federal agents, prompting President Trump to authorize the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops. By Sunday morning, elements of the 79th Infantry Brigade had arrived on-site, according to Northern Command.
Further escalation came with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warning that U.S. Marines at Camp Pendleton could also be mobilized if violence persists. Still, Bitcoin’s stability at $106,332 suggests crypto investors remain unfazed, treating the unrest as a regional event rather than a market-moving crisis.
Bitcoin traded within a narrow $1,057 range, from $105,043 to $106,101, and is currently hovering at $106,332. The price action showed a strong rebound after briefly dipping below $105,100, as buying interest re-emerged around the $105,400 support level, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
An early breakout attempt above $106,100 ran into selling pressure, creating a high-volume resistance zone. That move was short-lived as profit-taking set in, though the coin held onto its gains. The consolidation structure remains bullish, with the pattern of higher lows hinting at a potential push toward $107,000 if resistance breaks cleanly.
Despite broader macro headwinds, BTC continues to attract buyers during dips, underscoring its role as a perceived hedge amid rising uncertainty.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- BTC traded within a $1,288 range (1.22%) between a low of $105,043.65 and a 24-hour high of $106,332.
- Resistance around $105,900–$106,100 was broken as price surged beyond this zone with strong volume during the early afternoon.
- Support at $105,400 held firm through several retests, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
- A breakout to $106,332 occurred around 13:48, followed by minor profit-taking and stabilization above $106,000.
- The hourly chart shows an ascending trend with consistent higher lows, invalidating the earlier «pump and dump» interpretation.
- With momentum intact, BTC may test the $107,000 resistance level if current support near $105,800 holds.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Bitcoin Holds Above $105K Despite Donald Trump’s Threats Against Elon Musk

Bitcoin BTC held firm above $105,000 on Saturday despite an unusually combative and personal escalation in the Trump-Musk feud that could rattle traditional markets next week.
On Saturday, in a phone interview with NBC News, President Trump warned that there would be “serious consequences” if Elon Musk financially backed Democratic candidates running against Republicans who support the GOP’s budget bill. “If he does, he’ll have to pay the consequences for that,” Trump said, adding later, “He’ll have to pay very serious consequences if he does that.”
Trump, who has often boasted of past support from Musk, firmly dismissed the idea of mending ties. “No,” he said when asked whether he wished to repair the relationship. “I would assume so, yeah,” he added when asked if the rift was permanent.
Despite the intensifying feud between two of the most influential figures in U.S. politics and technology, Bitcoin remained unfazed. The cryptocurrency held onto earlier gains and continues to trade near weekly highs. The market’s composure suggests that traders may increasingly view BTC as a hedge against institutional dysfunction, or at least as an asset insulated from the partisan fallout that tends to impact equities more directly.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- BTC traded in a 24-hour range of $1,162 (1.13%), from a low of $104,624 to a high of $105,786, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
- Strong support formed at $104,800, where above-average volume confirmed buyer interest.
- Resistance at $105,200 was broken and has since flipped into a short-term support zone.
- Volume peaked at 378 BTC during key breakout moments, especially around 13:43–13:46 and 13:53.
- A short consolidation occurred between $104,300–$104,600 before the final surge to near highs.
- An ascending price channel remains intact, showing bullish structure despite intermittent pullbacks.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Ether Holds Steady Above $2,500 as ETF Demand Signals Institutional Confidence

Ether ETH has rebounded firmly from key support near $2,460, recovering losses and stabilizing above the $2,500 threshold amid broader market volatility.
The rally follows a higher low formation backed by above-average volume, signaling growing market confidence.
Institutional participation appears to be reinforcing the trend, with BlackRock’s ETHA ETF reporting $492 million in net inflows last week.
Total holdings now exceed $4.84 billion, reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment even as price action remains sensitive to geopolitical developments.
Traders are watching to see if ETH can challenge resistance in the $2,520–$2,530 range.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- ETH traded within a $72 range over 24 hours, from a low of $2,460.35 to a high of $2,532.41.
- A key support zone formed at $2,460–$2,470, where ETH bounced on strong volume during midnight hours.
- Final hour surge reached $2,515.11, backed by 5,919 ETH in volume.
- Higher low structure established with interim support at $2,485 and resistance at $2,503.
- Final retracement held support at $2,507, with price consolidating around $2,510 into the close.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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