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Bitcoin Falters Near Record, but ‘Realized Price’ Analysis Suggests Optimistic Outlook

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Record highs — be it $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year — are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don’t do a great job of describing price action.

Tracking the «realized price,» or the average price at which bitcoin BTC is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a market-wide cost basis is a more valuable tool for gauging investor profitability and potential inflection points in market sentiment.

The charts (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market starting Jan. 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025.

The average realized price for the 2025 so far is $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, these investors are up approximately 12% on average.

When bitcoin began its decline from the all-time high of $109,000 in late January, it briefly fell below the 2025 realized price, a historical signal of capitulation. This period of stress lasted until April 22, when the price reclaimed the cohort’s cost basis.

Historical Context: Capitulation Patterns

Historically, when price falls below a cohort’s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclical bottoms:

  • 2024: After the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below the average cost basis before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer, linked to the yen carry trade unwind when bitcoin plunged to $49,000.
  • 2023: Price tracked close to the average cost basis during support levels, only briefly breaking below during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March.

The data suggests that a capitulation phase has likely occurred, positioning the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, recoveries from such events mark transitions into healthier market conditions.

BTC: Exchange Average Withdrawal Price (by year) (Glassnode)

Realized, not record

When bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 during the 2017 bull market, it marked a significant divergence between the market price and the realized price of just $5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Unsurprisingly, prices very shortly after went into a brutal reversal.

In contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price, a metric that aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, underscoring the long-term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.

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Apex Group Buys Majority Stake in Tokenization Specialist Tokeny as RWA Trend Soars

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Apex Group, a financial services provider with more than $3 trillion in assets under administration, said on Tuesday it had acquired a majority stake in Tokeny, a Luxembourg-based firm that helps institutions tokenize real-world assets (RWA) on public blockchains.

According to the deal, Apex expects to take full ownership of Tokeny over the next three years, after first investing in the company in late 2023, Apex said in a press release. The companies did not disclose the terms of the acquisition in the press release, and a spokesperson did not immediately return a request for comment.

The acquisition comes as more traditional financial firms are looking at tokenization as the next frontier in capital markets, using blockchain technology for moving assets like bonds, funds and other securities.

For institutional investors, the process promises simpler cross-border transactions, faster settlement and new liquidity channels. Tokenized assets could be a $18 trillion market by 2033, a report from BCG and Ripple last month projected.

«Tokenization is a foundational shift in how assets will be managed, distributed, and accessed,» Apex founder and CEO Peter Hughes said in a statement. «Our strengthened partnership with Tokeny is key to delivering on our vision to be the infrastructure provider in the digital era of finance.»

Tokeny’s infrastructure has already been used to tokenize over $32 billion in assets, supporting the full life cycle of tokenized securities — from issuance to transfer to compliance — and is best known for establishing ERC-3643, a widely used standard for compliant digital asset transfers, the press release said.

Apex said Tokeny’s team and tools will be brought in-house, and it aims to offer clients a turnkey infrastructure for blockchain-based finance, layering smart contracts and decentralized protocols on top of its traditional services.

Read more: Ripple, BCG Project $18.9T Tokenized Asset Market by 2033

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Sell in May? Bitcoin Tops $107K, Could Hit Record Highs This Summer Say Analysts

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«Sell in May and go away,» goes the Wall Street adage for equity markets every summer. For bitcoin BTC, though, some analysts say this season could mark a break from tradition.

«As we get into the European summer months, the sense is it’s more likely a case of ‘buy in May and go away’ than any significant headwinds or selling pressure,» said Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm Wincent in a market note.

A confluence of positive regulatory developments around digital assets in the U.S. and increasing institutional buying both via exchange-traded funds and spot allocation is poised to push BTC higher in the next months, Howard said.

U.S.-traded spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, pulled in $667 million in net inflows on Monday with BTC pausing just below its January record, underscoring persistent demand, he noted. The vehicles attracted $3.3 billion in May, per SoSoValue. On top of that, there’s been a flurry of companies joining Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) adding bitcoin to their treasury, financed by debt and stock issuances.

«As we edge closer to a $4 trillion market cap for digital assets, we will see BTC cross all-time-highs in the coming weeks,» Howard said. The total crypto market cap currently stands at around $3.3 trillion, per TradingView data.

Historically, summer months have been slow for crypto assets, but macro and political forces are also converging in ways that could disrupt the typical seasonal lull, analysts at crypto analytics firm Kaiko pointed out.

The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision in June will precede Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline for trade partners, both of which could trigger market-wide volatility, the report said.

Bitcoin options markets are already flashing signs of investor anticipation, Kaiko analysts said. Strike prices at $110,000 and $120,000 for the June 27 expiry have drawn heavy volume, suggesting bets on BTC making a record-breaking move, the report noted.

Bitcoin briefly topped $107,000 during the Tuesday session, gaining 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading just 2% below its January record high.

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NYC Mayor Eric Adams Creating Crypto Advisory Council

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NEW YORK — The city of New York is launching a digital assets advisory council to bring fintech jobs into the Big Apple, Mayor Eric Adams announced Tuesday.

New York City is «open for business, he said at the start of a summit hosted at the mayor’s official residence, Gracie Mansion. The council will be composed of individuals from the industry, with a chair to be announced in the coming weeks.

«We want to use technology of tomorrow to better serve New Yorkers today,» Adams said in his opening remarks. «We have experts right here, and they are going to help us navigate solutions that serve our city. We are lucky to have this type of human capital right here in the city of New York.»

The summit, which included a public press conference followed by closed-door roundtables, had participants from both family offices and unicorn startups, said Richard Hecker of Traction and Scale, a logistics firm involved in the event.

Business interests aside, the city will explore putting birth and death records onto a blockchain to help New Yorkers’ next of kin easily access these types of documents, Adams said.

Andrew Durgee, the co-CEO of Republic, which backs other startups financially, noted that his firm remained in New York despite concerns about regulators and other issues, even as other firms left the country.

«Now the first time in 15 years, we’re in this scenario, we have no idea what it’s going to look like,» Durgee said. «You have now all these people, these smart, brilliant people now coming back to the U.S., and they’re looking for a place to land.»

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