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A Pre-Consensus Lift Amidst Lingering Recession Whispers

Like springtime in New York City, the crypto market got hot, all at once, in early May. After weeks of navigating choppy seas, influenced in part by anxieties surrounding the administration’s trade brinksmanship, a palpable shift in sentiment propelled the crypto sphere into a notable rally.
Bitcoin shape-shifted from a tariff tantrum mooring into a determined hunter of all-time highs. This bullish resurgence was not isolated. Ether, having endured a significant drawdown of over 50% since the start of the year, staged an impressive bounce, gaining 36% in the five days following the much-anticipated Pectra upgrade.
The broader blockchain market mirrored this enthusiasm. The CoinDesk 20 Index, the benchmark for the performance of top digital assets, added nearly 18% in the past week, bringing its 30-day return to over 33%. Further down the capitalization spectrum, the CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks assets beyond the top 20, also rebounded strongly from its lows, delivering 37% over the past month. Demonstrating truly epic participation breadth, the 50-constituent CoinDesk Memecoin Index added a 55% on the week and a whopping 86% in the last month.
Given the fundamentally limited (zero) direct impact of tariff and trade news on the intrinsic value of most (all) crypto assets, this lunge higher feels like what they call a «sentiment shift.» With CoinDesk’s Consensus conference unfolding this week in Toronto, the timing couldn’t be more opportune. The vibes are good.
Performance of CoinDesk 20, CoinDesk 80, CoinDesk Memecoin Index, bitcoin, and ether since Liberation Day, April 2, 2025
Source: CoinDesk Indices
The specter of recession
This recent market exuberance, both within digital assets and across traditional risk-on asset classes, has not quelled the underlying concerns of those who believe the United States is gradually inching towards a recession. Official recessions, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), are indeed relatively infrequent. Yet, today’s unusual confluence of macroeconomic factors provides fertile ground for wariness.
To wit, the initial estimate for first-quarter 2025 GDP showed a contraction of 0.3% at an annualized rate, a notable reversal from the 2.4% growth in the previous quarter. True, this figure was skewed downwards by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to beat anticipated tariff increases, yet a contraction in GDP is nonetheless a concerning data point. Adding to this unease is plunging consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest level in nearly five years, with the Expectations Index hitting its lowest point since October 2011 — a level often associated with recessionary signals. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index echoed this weakness, falling to 52.2 in its preliminary May reading, driven by concerns over trade policy and the potential resurgence of inflation. Furthermore, their survey highlighted a surge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.5%, the highest since 1981.
The growing U.S. debt burden and the persistent inability of the administration to tame the 10-year Treasury yield, despite apparent efforts, also contribute to the sense of economic fragility. Finally, the potential for collateral damage from ongoing or escalating trade wars, including businesses potentially reducing their workforce in response to disrupted supply chains and increased costs, adds another layer of concern.
NBER Chart of US Unemployment Levels and Recession Periods Since 1978
Source: NBER.org (Hey, NBER, should that read «since 1978?»)
To be clear, the prevailing sentiment among our network still leans against an imminent recession, and we don’t make predictions. However, to dismiss the possibility of a recession in the current environment seems imprudent.
Bitcoin vs. other digital assets in a downturn
Crypto has only experienced one NBER-declared recession, during the worst of COVID. While the market crisis caused a liquidity panic and significant drawdowns, the subsequent $5 trillion ocean of emergency fiscal stimulus (and millions of homebound people discovering crypto) pointed things north and delivered the 2021 bubble. We may not expect the same path in a future recession. So, what might we expect?
On the one hand, there’s a compelling argument to be made that bitcoin has now achieved a level of adoption and established a user base sufficient to begin fulfilling its long-touted destiny as a safe haven asset during times of economic turmoil. With the U.S. dollar potentially facing pressure amidst high inflation and a swelling debt burden, bitcoin’s inherent scarcity and decentralized (and apolitical) nature are increasingly attractive.
On the other hand, traditional recessionary environments are typically characterized by scarce liquidity, heightened risk aversion, a dominant focus on capital preservation and a diminished appetite for exploring nascent and volatile asset classes. A contraction in overall economic activity would also lead to reduced funding for entrepreneurial and even established ventures within the blockchain space. Finally, retail users, feeling the financial pinch of a recession, would likely have less «experimental money» to allocate to decentralized finance (DeFi) and other novel crypto applications.
Therefore, even if bitcoin manages to attract safe-haven flows, other blockchain assets, particularly those promising future growth and innovation, could face significant headwinds and continued price pressure. In our view, one of the least constructive outcomes for the broader digital asset ecosystem would be a further increase in bitcoin’s dominance at the expense of innovation and growth in other areas.
The resilience of trading
What might provide a degree of resilience for the digital asset class and the industry as a whole is its energy for trading. Crypto functions more as a trading asset class than a predominantly investment-driven one. In both favorable and unfavorable economic conditions, trading volumes within the crypto markets have generally remained robust and resilient. It’s conceivable that the active trading community could sustain the asset class until broader economic conditions improve.
Navigating uncertainty
While a recession in the United States is a scenario few desire and one that remains outside the highest probability outcomes in most forecasts, and despite the recent sentiment shift, its possibility cannot be entirely dismissed. And, as a matter of economic cycles, periods of contraction are not entirely avoidable. For the sake of our burgeoning industry and the progress made in integrating digital assets into the fabric of global financial services — across trading, investing, lending, saving, and yield generation — we sincerely hope that even a modest stream of support will continue to drive technological development, investor education, accessibility, and broader adoption. Perhaps this will be fueled by one of crypto’s original notions: that the traditional economic system has faltered.
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CFTC’s Pham Said to Plot Exit, Agency May Be Left Without a Party Majority

Caroline Pham, the acting chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures and Trading Commission, has openly discussed an intention to leave the commission once she’s permanently replaced, people familiar with her plans have said, leaving significant questions about the future track of agency policy.
If President Donald Trump’s nominee for the chairmanship, former Commissioner Brian Quintenz, is confirmed by the Senate to take the job, the departure of Republican Pham could coincide with the planned exit of fellow Republican Commissioner Summer Mersinger to run the Blockchain Association.
Who’s left? The new Republican chairman — who served as a policy head for a16z after leaving the agency — would find himself alongside a single fellow commissioner: Democrat Kristin Johnson.
This leaves Quintenz with practical control of the agency’s agenda and staffing, because almost all of its employees will report to his office. But the CFTC could be hamstrung to make new policy as Congress is working on legislation that could assign the regulator new powers over the crypto industry. The longer it waits before the White House picks nominees to face Senate confirmation, the longer the potential delay of higher-stakes policy work that requires commission involvement.
The CFTC normally has five members — a chair and two others from the majority party plus two commissioners from the minority party. If Quintenz gets the Senate nod, he’s taking over the spot currently held by Christy Goldsmith Romero, a Democrat who said she’s leaving her extended stint in government service when this role ends.
The sole Democrat, Johnson, hasn’t cultivated a reputation for her digital assets views, like the sharper rhetoric associated with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s lone Democrat, Caroline Crenshaw. It’s unclear what common ground, if any, would be carved out between Johnson and Quintenz if they were to serve as a two-person commission.
Mersinger will start as CEO of the crypto lobbying group Blockchain Association at the start of next month, according to board president and chair Marta Belcher’s remarks highlighting the new hire on Wednesday at Consensus 2025 in Toronto, calling her a person who could take crypto «to the next level in policy.»
«This decision is not easy, and it breaks my heart to leave the agency that I have grown to love so much over the last five years,» Mersinger said in a statement. She’ll soon be lobbying on policy that is likely to one day direct her former agency to regulate the spot markets for the bulk of crypto trading in the U.S.
As the interim head of the agency appointed after Trump reclaimed the White House, Pham, a former executive at Citigroup Inc., has taken an aggressive stance to ease the CFTC’s use of enforcement actions to steer crypto matters and to rethink some of its policy positions.
The acting chairman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment after hours on Wednesday.
Before Pham and Mersinger arrived in a slate of four appointees that also included Democrats Johnson and Romero, the CFTC had been down to two commissioners. The recently departed Chairman Rostin Behnam, a Democrat, had served for a time with Dawn Stump, a Republican.
It’s unclear what the president’s nomination strategy may eventually be for the CFTC’s potential three vacancies if Pham departs, which would include one position for a Democrat. So far, Trump has sought to remove Democratic appointees from federal regulatory agencies, such as at the Federal Trade Commission and the National Credit Union Administration.
Read More: CFTC Commissioner Mersinger to Be CEO at Blockchain Association
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Banks Exploring Stablecoin Amid Fears of Losing Market Share, BitGo Executive Says

As the stablecoin competition is heating up with looming regulation in the U.S., traditional finance institutions are taking notice—largely out of fear of losing out to digital dollars, said Ben Reynolds, BitGo’s managing director of stablecoins, at Consensus 2025 in Toronto.
Speaking at a panel discussion, he said that BitGo’s recently launched stablecoin-as-a-service has seen “incredible inbound” interest from U.S. and foreign banks wanting to tokenize deposits or issue stablecoins.
«A lot of banks are just being defensive—they’re afraid they’re going to lose their deposits,” Reynolds said. «They look at stablecoins and say: How do we not get left behind?»
Yield-bearing versions of stablecoins and tokenized money market funds have seen rapid growth recently, but still make up only a fraction of the $230 billion stablecoin market.
A16z’s Sam Broner said that while yield-bearing stablecoins are a promising market segment, their primary use case is for payments and transactions where users don’t really care about yields. Still, a near-term killer use case could be “collateral mobility”—the ability to instantly move money to meet obligations across different platforms.
«You can’t do a lot of things with a share of a money market fund,» Broner said. «You’ve got lock-up periods, business-hour settlement, and contracts that have to be manually reviewed. Crypto gives you programmatic, permissionless flexibility.»
Yield-bearing stablecoins could also be attractive for institutions, said Matt Kunke, crypto product strategist at BlackRock. «If you’re a DAO, protocol, or market maker, moving between crypto holdings on an exchange and your brokerage account is slow and full of friction,» he said. «Stablecoins that carry yield just reduce that drag.”
However, regulatory distinctions will shape the market. “A tokenized Treasury fund is a security, and an actual stablecoin is not,” he explained. “They deserve fundamentally different markets.»
Joseph Saldana, chief financial officer of the Wyoming Stable Token Commission, pointed out that yield–generating tokens have the power to broaden investors’ access compared to mutual funds that often have minimum limits of investment that «lock out a lot of people.»
«We want to service the underbanked and give broader access to instruments the rest of us enjoy every day,» Saldana said.
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Trump Still on Track to Sign Crypto Legislation By August, White House’s Bo Hines Says

TORONTO — Despite a recent setback, U.S. President Donald Trump should be able to sign stablecoin and market structure legislation before Congress goes on break in August, said White House official Bo Hines on Wednesday.
Lawmakers are still discussing the legislation, which is good, said Hines, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said on stage at Consensus 2025 in Toronto.
«Negotiations are ongoing,» he said. «But I remain steadfast in my optimism that we’re going to achieve — the President’s desire is to do it — but stablecoin legislation and market structure legislation before the August recess.»
Still, he acknowledged that the legislative process was «evolving.»
Hines said earlier in the day that Trump’s crypto ventures, as well as the president’s family’s tie-ups, did not pose any conflicts of interest.
«His sons have the right to engage in capital markets as private business people, like anyone else does in the U.S.,» he said on CoinDesk TV. «I don’t see any conflict in doing so. By the way, it should be exciting that they’re engaging in this space. If you’re a good business person, you should be looking at digital assets and saying, ‘how can I get involved?’ Because this is the next generation of finance.»
He repeated this argument on stage at Consensus.
«As we launch these tariff negotiations and trade negotiations play themselves out, we want to establish ourselves as a leader in digital asset financial technology more generally,» he said.
Asked on CDTV about reports that a small company was purchasing TRUMP coins, Hines said, «I’ll say very firmly, the president of the United States can’t be bought.»
The White House and members of its working group are still working on a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Hines said on stage.
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