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A Pre-Consensus Lift Amidst Lingering Recession Whispers

Like springtime in New York City, the crypto market got hot, all at once, in early May. After weeks of navigating choppy seas, influenced in part by anxieties surrounding the administration’s trade brinksmanship, a palpable shift in sentiment propelled the crypto sphere into a notable rally.
Bitcoin shape-shifted from a tariff tantrum mooring into a determined hunter of all-time highs. This bullish resurgence was not isolated. Ether, having endured a significant drawdown of over 50% since the start of the year, staged an impressive bounce, gaining 36% in the five days following the much-anticipated Pectra upgrade.
The broader blockchain market mirrored this enthusiasm. The CoinDesk 20 Index, the benchmark for the performance of top digital assets, added nearly 18% in the past week, bringing its 30-day return to over 33%. Further down the capitalization spectrum, the CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks assets beyond the top 20, also rebounded strongly from its lows, delivering 37% over the past month. Demonstrating truly epic participation breadth, the 50-constituent CoinDesk Memecoin Index added a 55% on the week and a whopping 86% in the last month.
Given the fundamentally limited (zero) direct impact of tariff and trade news on the intrinsic value of most (all) crypto assets, this lunge higher feels like what they call a «sentiment shift.» With CoinDesk’s Consensus conference unfolding this week in Toronto, the timing couldn’t be more opportune. The vibes are good.
Performance of CoinDesk 20, CoinDesk 80, CoinDesk Memecoin Index, bitcoin, and ether since Liberation Day, April 2, 2025
Source: CoinDesk Indices
The specter of recession
This recent market exuberance, both within digital assets and across traditional risk-on asset classes, has not quelled the underlying concerns of those who believe the United States is gradually inching towards a recession. Official recessions, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), are indeed relatively infrequent. Yet, today’s unusual confluence of macroeconomic factors provides fertile ground for wariness.
To wit, the initial estimate for first-quarter 2025 GDP showed a contraction of 0.3% at an annualized rate, a notable reversal from the 2.4% growth in the previous quarter. True, this figure was skewed downwards by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to beat anticipated tariff increases, yet a contraction in GDP is nonetheless a concerning data point. Adding to this unease is plunging consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest level in nearly five years, with the Expectations Index hitting its lowest point since October 2011 — a level often associated with recessionary signals. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index echoed this weakness, falling to 52.2 in its preliminary May reading, driven by concerns over trade policy and the potential resurgence of inflation. Furthermore, their survey highlighted a surge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.5%, the highest since 1981.
The growing U.S. debt burden and the persistent inability of the administration to tame the 10-year Treasury yield, despite apparent efforts, also contribute to the sense of economic fragility. Finally, the potential for collateral damage from ongoing or escalating trade wars, including businesses potentially reducing their workforce in response to disrupted supply chains and increased costs, adds another layer of concern.
NBER Chart of US Unemployment Levels and Recession Periods Since 1978
Source: NBER.org (Hey, NBER, should that read «since 1978?»)
To be clear, the prevailing sentiment among our network still leans against an imminent recession, and we don’t make predictions. However, to dismiss the possibility of a recession in the current environment seems imprudent.
Bitcoin vs. other digital assets in a downturn
Crypto has only experienced one NBER-declared recession, during the worst of COVID. While the market crisis caused a liquidity panic and significant drawdowns, the subsequent $5 trillion ocean of emergency fiscal stimulus (and millions of homebound people discovering crypto) pointed things north and delivered the 2021 bubble. We may not expect the same path in a future recession. So, what might we expect?
On the one hand, there’s a compelling argument to be made that bitcoin has now achieved a level of adoption and established a user base sufficient to begin fulfilling its long-touted destiny as a safe haven asset during times of economic turmoil. With the U.S. dollar potentially facing pressure amidst high inflation and a swelling debt burden, bitcoin’s inherent scarcity and decentralized (and apolitical) nature are increasingly attractive.
On the other hand, traditional recessionary environments are typically characterized by scarce liquidity, heightened risk aversion, a dominant focus on capital preservation and a diminished appetite for exploring nascent and volatile asset classes. A contraction in overall economic activity would also lead to reduced funding for entrepreneurial and even established ventures within the blockchain space. Finally, retail users, feeling the financial pinch of a recession, would likely have less «experimental money» to allocate to decentralized finance (DeFi) and other novel crypto applications.
Therefore, even if bitcoin manages to attract safe-haven flows, other blockchain assets, particularly those promising future growth and innovation, could face significant headwinds and continued price pressure. In our view, one of the least constructive outcomes for the broader digital asset ecosystem would be a further increase in bitcoin’s dominance at the expense of innovation and growth in other areas.
The resilience of trading
What might provide a degree of resilience for the digital asset class and the industry as a whole is its energy for trading. Crypto functions more as a trading asset class than a predominantly investment-driven one. In both favorable and unfavorable economic conditions, trading volumes within the crypto markets have generally remained robust and resilient. It’s conceivable that the active trading community could sustain the asset class until broader economic conditions improve.
Navigating uncertainty
While a recession in the United States is a scenario few desire and one that remains outside the highest probability outcomes in most forecasts, and despite the recent sentiment shift, its possibility cannot be entirely dismissed. And, as a matter of economic cycles, periods of contraction are not entirely avoidable. For the sake of our burgeoning industry and the progress made in integrating digital assets into the fabric of global financial services — across trading, investing, lending, saving, and yield generation — we sincerely hope that even a modest stream of support will continue to drive technological development, investor education, accessibility, and broader adoption. Perhaps this will be fueled by one of crypto’s original notions: that the traditional economic system has faltered.
Uncategorized
PEPE Price Sinks 6% Amid Market Sell-Off as Whales Accumulate

Meme-inspired cryptocurrency PEPE has lost nearly 6% of its value in the last 24-hour period, sliding to a $0.0000107 low even as large investors accumulate.
Trading volumes for the cryptocurrency surged into the trillions of tokens amid the drop, as the token kept failing to find support amid the intense selling pressure. The drop came amid a wider crypto market drawdown, where the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index lost 1.8% of its value.
Memecoins were especially hard hit in the sell-off. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) dropped nearly 5% over the last 24 hours, while bitcoin saw a drop of 0.8%.
The drop comes just days after altcoin season speculation grew among cryptocurrency circles over the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut later this week, which is expected to be a boon for risk assets.
Data from Nansen shows that over the past week, the top 100 non-exchange addresses holding PEPE on the Ethereum network have seen their holdings grow by 1.38% to 307.33 trillion tokens, while exchange wallets had a 1.45% drop in holdings to 254.4 trillion tokens.
Technical Analysis Overview
PEPE’s price action pointed to a market in retreat, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model. The token dropped from $0.000011484 to $0.000010782, with sellers dominating the chart.
Price peaked at $0.000011732 during a resistance test, but volume swelled to 5.5 trillion tokens at that level, before the market ultimately turned lower.
Support showed signs of buckling during the next phase, with the token brushing against $0.000010746. Trading activity intensified again, hitting 7.7 trillion tokens and reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The cryptocurrency’s price whipsawed within a 9% intraday range, a sign that traders remain unsure whether support levels are going to hold.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart

Digital asset treasuries (DATs), publicly traded firms that hold crypto on their balance sheets, have been hit hard in recent weeks as their market NAVs (mNAVs) slid below 1, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said in a new report.
Looking ahead, ether (ETH) DATs appear to have the most staying power thanks to staking yield, regulatory clarity, and room to grow, argued Kendrick.
The mNAV ratio is crucial. When it falls, these firms lose the incentive (and sometimes the ability) to keep buying crypto, threatening a key source of demand for bitcoin (BTC), ether and solana (solana).
Kendrick said that the next phase for DATs will be one of differentiation. The winners will be those that can raise funds at the lowest cost, achieve scale that draws liquidity and investor attention, and, crucially, earn staking yield. That last point tilts the playing field toward ether and solana treasuries over bitcoin, which lacks yield.
Market saturation is also at play. Strategy’s success as the flagship BTC treasury has inspired a flood of copycats, nearly 90 at last count, who together now hold more than 150,000 BTC, up sixfold this year, the analyst noted.
But if mNAVs stay below 1, Standard Chartered expects consolidation. For BTC treasuries, that could mean firms like Saylor’s Strategy buying out rivals rather than buying new bitcoin on the open market, a coin rotation, not fresh demand.
Ether treasuries look better positioned. They have been aggressively accumulating, with 3.1% of ETH’s circulating supply purchased since June. The largest player, Bitmine (BMNR) is well-placed to keep adding to its 2 million ETH stack, the report said.
For crypto markets, this matters. DAT buying has been a key driver of bitcoin and ether prices in 2025. But with BTC treasuries facing consolidation pressure and solana treasuries still relatively small, Standard Chartered sees ETH as the likely beneficiary going forward.
Read more: Strategy’s S&P 500 Snub Is a Cautionary Signal for Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries: JPMorgan
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Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis.
Crapis, who announced the initiative Monday on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems.
Ethereum Foundation background
The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects.
Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption.
In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies.
Crapis’s role
Crapis is a research scientist at the EF and will lead the new dAI Team. He said the group will connect its work with both the EF’s protocol group and its ecosystem support arm.
“Ethereum makes AI more trustworthy, and AI makes Ethereum more useful,” he wrote, adding that the team intends to fund public goods and projects at the intersection of AI and blockchains.
ERC-8004 and Trust Standards
The group will build on recent work around ERC-8004, a proposed Ethereum standard that Crapis described as a way to prove who an AI agent is and whether it can be trusted. By offering identity and reputation systems for autonomous agents, the standard is intended to allow coordination without centralized gatekeepers.
Crapis said the team will support new standards and upgrades as they emerge, guided by Ethereum’s values and the “d/acc” philosophy of decentralized acceleration. The goal, he explained, is to ensure AI development remains open and verifiable while giving humans greater agency over how intelligent systems interact with the economy.
Why it matters
For Ethereum, the move signals a growing ambition to anchor emerging technologies beyond finance.
If AI agents begin transacting at scale, demand could grow for settlement rails, reputation systems and standards that run natively on Ethereum. For the AI community, the initiative offers an alternative to centralized platforms that currently dominate AI infrastructure.
“The more intelligent agents transact, the more they need a neutral base layer for value and reputation,” Crapis said. “Ethereum benefits by becoming that layer and AI benefits by escaping lock-in to a few centralized platforms.”
The team has begun hiring and publishing resources, according to Crapis. He said EF intends to work “with purpose and urgency” to connect AI developers with the Ethereum ecosystem and to accelerate research at the boundary of the two fields.
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