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Bitcoin Eyes Record High Above $109K as U.S Reaches Trade Deal with China, Inflation Data Looms

Bitcoin BTC could soon hit record price highs, triggering accelerated gains in the wider altcoin market, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions may see markets react positively to a potential slowdown in the April CPI due this week.
The United States has reached a trade agreement with China after two days of high-level negotiations in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday. Both countries are set to issue a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks later Monday.
The trade deal comes after weeks of a tit-for-tat trade war that saw both countries raise import tariffs above 100%, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. As such, the positive March U.S. consumer price inflation data released last month was largely dismissed by investors and analysts as a lagging metric that didn’t accurately reflect the escalating trade tensions.
The bears, however, cannot make that argument anymore, thanks to the trade deal.
So, a continued softening of CPI could raise Fed rate cut bets, providing a bullish catalyst for a BTC rally to record highs above $110,000. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI could be dismissed as backwards-looking, reflecting the April tariffs and not accounting for the de-escalation in trade tensions.
The CPI due Tuesday is expected to show the cost of living eased to 2.3% year-on-year in April from March’s 2.4%, according to RBC. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have stayed at 2.8% year-over-year in April, with continued moderation in rent inflation.
According to 10x Research, consensus is that the headline CPI likely held unchanged at 2.4% in April.
«If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs headline, this week’s week’s inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst,» Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk.
«CPI could be bullish, and may bring new all-time highs,» Thielen added.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands at around $104,000, just 5.1% short of hitting new highs above $109,350, CoinDesk data show.
BTC has had a near V-shaped recovery from $75,000 since early April, with prices surging 10% last week due to continued inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has registered net inflows for 20 straight trading days, amassing over $5 billion in investor money, according to SoSoValue data. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while reiterating the data-dependent stance on potential rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell, however, offered dovish hints, saying «the underlying inflation picture is good,» while calling the inflationary impact of tariffs short-lived.
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, the best performance since December 2020, according to TradingView. Other major altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, ADA and SOL surged 9.7%, 56%, 19% and 20%, respectively.
According to HTX Research, there are no signs of speculative frenzy yet, meaning the rally could continue.
«Implied volatility (IV) in bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable,» HTX Research said.
«As long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger,» HTX added.
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Trump Family Backed American Bitcoin To Go Public via Merger With Gryphon Digital

American Bitcoin, Hut 8’s majority-owned unit backed by the Trump family, will go public via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining (GRYP).
Shares of Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) jumped 12% in pre-market trading, while Gryphon Digital Mining (GRYP) soared more than 200%, following the news.
American Data Center, which was owned by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr, merged their firm with American Bitcoin in March. The Trump brothers own 20% of American Bitcoin, while Hut 8 holds the remaining 80%.
The stock-for-stock transaction will result in Gryphon acquiring American Bitcoin, with the combined company adopting the American Bitcoin name and trading on Nasdaq under the ticker “ABTC.”
The merger is expected to close as early as Q3 2025. American Bitcoin will retain its current leadership and board, including CEO Mike Ho, and remain focused on scaling low-cost Bitcoin accumulation.
“This transaction marks the next step in scaling American Bitcoin as a purpose-built vehicle for low-cost Bitcoin accumulation at scale,” said Asher Genoot, CEO of Hut 8. “By taking American Bitcoin public, we expect to unlock direct access to dedicated growth capital independent of Hut 8’s balance sheet.”
Post-merger, existing shareholders of American Bitcoin are expected to own roughly 98% of the new company. Hut 8 will maintain majority ownership and serve as the exclusive infrastructure and operations partner, securing long-term, contracted revenue through its Power and Digital Infrastructure segments.
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Strategy Makes $1.34B Bitcoin Buy, Adding Another 13,390 BTC

Fresh off the heels of last week’s Strategy Conference, Strategy (MSTR) has resumed its bitcoin (BTC) accumulation, purchasing an additional 13,390 BTC. The company spent approximately $1.34 billion at an average price of $99,856 per bitcoin, according to a filing published on Monday.
This latest acquisition brings Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings to 568,840 BTC, now worth over $59 billion based on the current bitcoin price of around $104,000. The average purchase price across the company’s entire stack has now adjusted to $69,287.
The purchase was funded through two capital-raising mechanisms: an at-the-market (ATM) offering of its Class A common stock, and the issuance of shares from its Series STRK preferred stock. Between May 5 and May 11, the company raised $1.31 billion through the sale of common stock and issued 273,987 shares of the preferred stock series.
Shares of MSTR are trading 2% higher in pre-market hours.
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Bitcoin’s Bull Run Against Gold Could Accelerate as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Ease: Chart Analysis

Over the past two weeks, bitcoin (BTC) has significantly outperformed gold (XAU), and the bullish trend could intensify further.
This outlook is supported by bullish developments in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures BTC’s USD price against gold’s USD price per ounce and easing U.S.-China trade tensions.
Recently, the ratio broke out of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bottoming formation characterized by a large trough flanked by two smaller ones, with a trendline connecting the recoveries between troughs. The breakout indicates bearish-to-bullish trend change, signaling further bitcoin outperformance.
Last week, the ratio topped the trendline, and technical analysis suggests it could rise to at least 35.00 from the current 32.00. This target is derived by adding the spread between the largest trough and the trendline to the breakout point, signaling a potential move higher for Bitcoin relative to gold.
The bullish technical set-up is consistent with past data that shows BTC tends to catchup with gold rallies.
Gold’s meteoric rally peaked above $3,500 on April 22, and since then, the safe haven yellow metal has pulled back over 8% to $3,211, per TradingView data. During the same time frame, BTC’s price has risen by nearly 19% to $104,000.
With the U.S. and China easing trade tensions early Monday, gold could lose ground while renewed risk-on sentiment powers BTC higher.
The two nations agreed to lower tariffs on goods manufactured in both countries, according to a joint statement released in Geneva. China has proposed to reduce tariffs on U.S goods to 10% from 125% for 90 days. Meanwhile, the U.S. has proposed cutting tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%.
«The tariff reduction could see a broader return to risk-on positioning, with crypto and equities both likely to benefit from renewed investor confidence and global capital flows,» Mena Theodorou, co-founder of crypto exchange Coinstash, told CoinDesk in an email.
«The rally comes as the macro backdrop takes a positive turn: in a landmark move, the U.S. has struck trade deals with both China and the UK, while Putin and Zelensky are set to meet on Thursday to discuss a potential ceasefire. These developments have lifted risk sentiment globally, crypto included,» Theodorou added.
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