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Bettors Lose Millions Predicting the New Pope as Polymarket Edge Fizzles Out

Published

2 дня ago

9 мая, 2025

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Bettors on crypto prediction platform Polymarket have, in recent months, developed an enviable reputation for beating the bookies.

So it came as a surprise on Thursday when they got the outcome of the papal conclave very wrong indeed.

Winner Robert Francis Prevost wasn’t among the favorites, with bettors only giving the US-born cardinal around a 1% chance of succeeding Pope Francis ahead of the result.

Polymarket bettors, like traditional betting markets, gave Cardinal Pietro Parolin the highest odds, at 28%.

With over $28 million of bets placed on candidates other than Prevost, the result was a total wipeout for many bettors.

The event throws into question the perceived heightened accuracy of betting markets like Poymarket over conventional polls.

Polymarket lets users bet on the outcomes of everything from soccer fixtures to political elections. Unlike traditional betting platforms, where the house sets the odds based on its best diligence, Polymarket odds are a real-time reflection of the bets placed by users.

Simply put, the more demand there is for a certain outcome, the higher the odds and the prices paid for the bets are.

In November, Polymarket gained mainstream notoriety when bettors gave Republican candidate Donald Trump significantly higher odds than most other sources to win the US presidency.

“Polymarket prices seem to be wrapping up the views of smart money pretty well,” Koleman Stumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University in North Carolina, told CoinDesk at the time, noting that Polymarket bettors appeared to have a slight edge in predicting the election outcome.

A historical data analysis conducted by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough showed Polymarket previously predicted the outcome of world events one month out with 90% accuracy.

What went wrong?

The reason Polymarket bettors got the papal conclave result so wrong is that the event is extremely hard to predict, Domer, one of Polymarket’s top pseudonymous bettors, said on X.

“It’s like walking into a store that doesn’t communicate with the outside world,” he said. “Not even the participants themselves would probably know how to handicap it.”

Since it’s hard for bettors to find an edge with such an esoteric bet, many likely defaulted to following the opinions of traditional betting markets and the media, resulting in the close alignment of odds between Polymarket and other betting markets like Betfair.

The rarity of papal conclaves may also have made things difficult.

Pope Francis, the previous pope, was appointed in 2013, years before blockchain-based betting platforms like Polymarket existed. It’s also possible that many Polymarket bettors likely had no prior experience betting on the event.

Political elections, where Polymarket odds have lined up closer to results, are much more frequent and widely understood.

According to Domer, the real edge in betting on the papal conclave is not choosing the correct candidate but rather betting against those with too-high odds.

He chalked up the high odds of heavy favorites Parolin, and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who Polymarket bettors gave a 20% chance of winning, to their popularity with the public and the media.

«The pricing for Parolin and Tagle were way too high, and high for not very good reasons,” he said.

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Bitcoin DeFi Security Improves as Rootstock Boosts Hashrate Share

Published

6 часов ago

11 мая, 2025

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Decentralized finance (DeFi) on the Bitcoin blockchain may still be in its infancy relative to Ethereum, but Bitcoin DeFi (BTCFi) is becoming safer and cheaper, crypto analytics firm Messari said in a new report.

A central participant is Rootstock, one of the oldest Bitcoin layer-2 projects, crypto analytics firm Messari said in its «State of Rootstock» report, published on Thursday.

Rootstock is now secured by 81% of Bitcoin’s total hashrate, meaning miners that account for amount the hashrate are also approving transactions on the layer 2. The figure was just 56% before the the onboarding of Foundry and Spiderpool, the world’s largest and sixth-largest mining pools, respectively, in February.

Messari also observed that transaction fees on Rootstock are 95% cheaper than the average Bitcoin transaction and 55% cheaper than those on Ethereum.

Rootstock is one of numerous projects looking to bring greater utility to Bitcoin through expanding the provision for DeFi with smart contracts, enabled by «BitVMX», a modified version of the BitVM programming language. Other prominent Bitcoin layer-2 projects include Stacks and BOB («Build on Bitcoin»).

The project has also connected with bridging protocol LayerZero to enable Rootstock-native applications to connect with dozens of other blockchains, including Ethereum and Solana. Its momentum sets the stage for growing adoption of BTCFi through the remainder of 2025, according to Messari.

“As BTCFi continues to grow, Rootstock is well-positioned for broader adoption through core upgrades like a 60% reduction in transaction fees, alongside sustained investment in builder education and incentive programs,» Messari analyst Andrew Yang said.

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Bitcoin Challenges $105K on Positive Weekend Macro Headlines

Published

22 часа ago

11 мая, 2025

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They crypto bull move continued into the weekend thanks to a trio of positive macro developments.

Likely most responsible for the move was a President Trump Truth Social post regarding trade talks being held in Switzerland between the U.S. and China.

«A very good meeting today,» said Trump. «Many things discussed, much agreed to,» he continued. «A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner. We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!»

Earlier Saturday, Trump also announced a «full and immediate» ceasefire in the brewing war between India and Pakistan.

Completing the trio of good news, Russian President Putin said he was «in the mood for serious talks with Ukraine,» and suggested talks «without preconditions» in Turkey next week.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to just a few dollars short of $105,000 before pulling back to the current $104,500, ahead 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) has continued its recent outperformance, up 7.7% over the same time frame.

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Lido Proposes a Bold Governance Model to Give stETH Holders a Say in Protocol Decisions

Published

1 день ago

10 мая, 2025

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Lido Finance, Ethereum’s largest liquid staking platform by locked value, has introduced a proposal that grants staked ether (stETH) holders direct voting power alongside existing DAO tokenholders.

The upgrade, dubbed Lido Improvement Proposal (LIP) 28, outlines a dual governance system allowing stETH holders — those who stake ETH via Lido and receive a liquid token in return — to participate in a veto mechanism on key protocol decisions. Currently, only holders of LDO, Lido’s governance token, have a say in how the protocol evolves.

Under the new system, stETH holders could veto certain proposals approved by LDO tokenholders, though the veto would not enable them to push proposals through unilaterally.

The proposed system is framed as a mechanism to increase accountability and decentralization, especially as Lido continues to dominate Ethereum’s staking landscape. Over 25% of all ETH is staked on the network running through its infrastructure.

How it works

The Dual Governance system adds a special timelock contract between Lido DAO’s decisions and their execution, giving stETH holders a way to intervene if they strongly oppose a proposal.

The «dynamic» time lock is necessary because it is how on-chain governance technically works behind the scenes.

In the current system, decisions don’t take effect right away, as there is a set period before they’re executed. That gives users time to react if they don’t agree with certain changes.

However, Ethereum staking is different because one can’t quickly unstake or withdraw ETH, even with the current timelock. It takes time, liquidity is complex, and there is often a queue that could take several days to clear.

The new proposal wants to tackle that.

The proposed dynamic timelock assumes that, as enough users, who aren’t satisfied with a proposed change, deposit their stETH (or wrapped stETH and withdrawal of NFTs) into a designated escrow contract for withdrawal, the timelock duration begins to increase — this is called crossing the “first seal” (set at 1% of total Lido ETH staked).

If discontent continues and deposits cross the “second seal” threshold (10% of Lido’s ETH TVL), a «rage quit» is triggered: execution of the DAO’s decision is completely blocked until all protesting stakers have had the chance to withdraw their ETH.

This creates a sort of safety valve — allowing stakers to signal objection and exit — while still giving the DAO time to respond or cancel the contentious action.

The plan comes as Ethereum has surged more than 30% over the past week, riding momentum from its Pectra upgrade, which introduced execution-layer reforms to improve scalability and efficiency.

The rally has sparked renewed attention on Ethereum-native applications like Lido, which is critical in capital flow and validator participation across the chain — and directly impacts ETH market structure.

The LIP-28 proposal is still in its discussion phase, with a formal on-chain vote expected in the coming weeks.

If approved, the change could shift how governance is distributed across Ethereum’s staking ecosystem, setting a precedent for other DeFi protocols seeking to include users, not just tokenholders, in decision-making. Lido’s other competitors include Rocket Pool and Frax Ether.

LDO prices have risen 6.5% in the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, climbed 2.5%.