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Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Will Hit $1M by 2028 as U.S.-China Craft Hollow Trade Deal

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Arthur Hayes has a message for crypto investors and bitcoin (BTC) HODLers obsessing over Federal Reserve policy as the U.S. and China inch toward a trade deal: You’re watching the wrong institution.

“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn’t matter,” Hayes told CoinDesk in a recent interview. “Powell didn’t matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime, and he doesn’t matter now under a Republican one.”

For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a sideshow. The real monetary lever-pulling, he argues, is happening under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is quietly reshaping global liquidity with buybacks and auction strategies designed to manage a ballooning U.S. debt load.

That flood of liquidity, paired with America’s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.

“All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday,» Hayes said. «That’s all that matters.”

But monetary policy isn’t the only catalyst in his view. Hayes sees geopolitics fueling the fire too, particularly the performative trade diplomacy between the U.S. and China. As both sides posture, Hayes says they’ll likely sign a deal that looks bold on paper but changes nothing of substance.

“It’s going to be a deal on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to prove he’s been tough on China. Xi needs to prove that he stood up to the white man.”

After all, China has proven with its Covid-era policies it can withstand more economic pain. With tariffs politically risky, Hayes thinks the next move will be taxing foreign investment, a quiet form of capital control meant to reduce America’s dependence on foreign buyers without spooking domestic voters. This is how you get the American people to swallow a realignment of trade.

“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls,” he said.

Potentially, there are multiple tools on the table. Not just taxes on foreign-held Treasuries or equities, but more aggressive ideas like forced bond swaps, trading 10-year notes for 100-year paper, or higher withholding taxes on capital gains from U.S. assets.

It’s all part of a strategy to rebalance the financial account without forcing Americans to “buy less stuff,” a message he says no politician can sell.

“Americans don’t like to do hard things,” he added. “They don’t want to be told that you have to consume less.”

China will continue to pile on into U.S. assets

China, meanwhile, isn’t going anywhere. Hayes says it has no choice but to keep buying U.S. assets even if it pretends otherwise.

“They have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they’re buying off of America… but mathematically, they just can’t stop.”

For Hayes, this all leads to one place: more money sloshing through the system, and bitcoin soaking up the spillover.

His portfolio reflects that thesis: 60 to 65 percent in bitcoin, 20 percent in ether (ETH), and the rest in what he calls “quality shitcoins.”

Why? Because the market is finally looking for coins that actually work.

“We are in fundamentals season. people are tired of coins that don’t do anything,” Hayes said.

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Coinbase Buys Deribit for $2.9B

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Coinbase has agreed to pay $2.9 billion to buy bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) options platform Deribit, according to a press release, marking its official push into the highly profitable crypto derivatives market in the U.S.

The crypto exchange, alongside competitor Kraken, had been in talks to buy Deribit for months, with Bloomberg reporting that options giant could be valued at $4 billion to $5 billion.

Kraken, instead, purchased U.S. futures platform Ninja Trader for $1.5 billion, allowing the exchange to compete with Coinbase in offering futures and derivatives in the U.S.

Coinbase’s acquisition comes after what has been a busy year in crypto dealmaking as companies are positioning themselves in what U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to become the “crypto capital of the world.”

The deal with Deribit includes $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase Class A common stock, according to the companies, making it one of the largest deals in the industry.

“We’re excited to join forces with Coinbase to power a new era in global crypto derivatives,” Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said in a statement.

“As the leading crypto options platform, we’ve built a strong, profitable business, and this acquisition will accelerate the foundation we laid while providing traders with even more opportunities across spot, futures, perpetuals, and options – all under one trusted brand. Together with Coinbase, we’re set to shape the future of the global crypto derivatives market,» Strijers.

Founded in 2016, Deribit has quickly taken over market share for digital asset options trading. The exchange processed $1.2 trillion in volume in 2024, a 95% year-over-year increase, the company had reported in January.

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Much-Awaited Fed Rate Cut May Not Come Before Q4, ING Says

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The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates any time soon, but when it does, the easing could be aggressive, according to Dutch investment bank ING.

On Wednesday, the Fed kept the benchmark rate on hold between 4.25% and 4.5%, with Chairman Jerome Powell raising the specter of stagflation during the press conference following the announcement.

Both crypto and traditional markets looked to Powell for cues on a potential rate cut in June. ING points to his comments that «uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased» and the «risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen» as evidence the wait-and-watch mode could last for a couple more meetings.

The comments suggest «little inclination to move until they are confident of the direction the data is heading, meaning rate cuts could be delayed, but risk being sharper when they come,» ING said in a note to clients.

The investment bank said the wait-and-see stance could «persist through to September.»

The bank the Fed’s reticence to act is probably due to concerns that trade war and supply disruptions at ports and logistics firms could amplify inflation.

Bitcoin has rallied from $96,000 to $99,5000 since Wednesday’s Fed decision, with President Donald Trump’s tease of a trade deal with a major economy helping restore the risk sentiment.

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Stripe Unveils Payments Products Powered by ‘Gale-Force Tailwind’ Stablecoins

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Stripe is ramping up its stablecoin capabilities, expanding the provision for businesses to receive and hold payments on cryptocurrency rails.

Following on from Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge, the San Francsico-based payments giant has unveiled a new money management service powered by stablecoins.

Stablecoin Financial Accounts will enable businesses to hold a balance in stablecoins and distribute them anywhere in the world, Stripe announced on Thursday.

At its annual event Sessions, CEO Patrick Collison described stablecoins along with AI as «not one, but two, gale-force tailwinds, well off the Beaufort scale, dramatically reshaping the economic landscape around us.»

“We’re building programmable financial services to make money as easy to manipulate and manage with code as data is,” Will Gaybrick, Stripe’s president of product and business, added.

Stripe recently said it was preparing a new stablecoin payments pilot aimed at companies based outside the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

Free from the volatility that remains inherent to cryptocurrencies like BTC, stablecoins have been flagged as a potential breakout use case for blockchain technology. Citi predicted that the sector could grow to a $3.7 trillion market cap by 2030, which would constitute a 15-fold growth from its current cap of around $242 billion.

Read More: Visa Doubles Down on Stablecoins With Investment in Blockchain Payments Firm BVNK

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